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Posts by cms  

Joined: 4 Sep 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 22 Feb 2018
Threads: Total: 9 / In This Archive: 8
Posts: Total: 1253 / In This Archive: 915

Speaks Polish?: yes

Displayed posts: 923 / page 29 of 31
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3 Oct 2011
Life / Expats/Immigrants in Poland: Needy, Greedy or contributor. Which one are you? [118]

Its not necessarily a Chicago school thing - more common sense. If the state provides lots of things then someone needs to pay for them and when you work out costs of things then they are often more than you expect, as I tried to point out in the example above.

The state was bankrupt in 1989. Maybe we can ask Poles whether they would rather go back to having a good football team but having to queue up all night for cuban oranges and russian shoes. Life expectancy has increased steadily and considerably since 1989 and with the arguable exception of classical music then the cultural scene is obviously much better than it was in 1989.
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3 Oct 2011
Life / Expats/Immigrants in Poland: Needy, Greedy or contributor. Which one are you? [118]

Yeah, the access to sport is really dreadful if you don't have money here. It's partially the fault of the schools - where I am, you're looking at around 100zl an hour to hire a school hall - which is utterly ridiculous. You're effectively looking at having to make 200zl an hour to make it profitable to run a class - which means charging around 20zl an hour - utterly unaffordable for poor kids.

But what is the cost base ? I'm guessing PLN 30 for heat and light, PLN 10 for showers and lets say PLN 30 inc ZUS to have a janitor open it up and stay on site for 1,5 hours. Add in a bit of insurance, cleaning materials, repairs (I know some of these places dont do many) and the cost of the sports equipment and you are soon at PLN 90. On that basis the PLN 100 doesnt leave a vast profit for the school. Might not be affordable for poor kids but thats not the school's worry.
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30 Sep 2011
Work / Krakow Salaries Getting Lower? Only Kids Want Lessons?? [6]

Economics ...

There are no barriers to entry in your chosen field other than a course that costs a few hundred quid and a few weeks effort.

Supply of teachers is outstripping demand from students.
Those students that do want lessons have less disposable income
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23 Sep 2011
Law / Setting up SPZOO and SPK in Poland [16]

This is quite a common structure, especially for larger Polish owned family businesses and is also often used by lawyers, accounting practices etc but you will need to be doing about PLN 350k of profits (so lets say PLN 1m of turnover) to make it pay versus a regular Sp z o.o and it does involve quite a lot of extra admin.

Few pieces of advice

- make sure you accountant speaks English and explains it to you step by step. Of the ones listed Trinity would certainly be able to do that. Not sure about the others.

- make sure you trust your business partner fully and have a strong right of exit in the foundation deed for the SpK.
- Better to start in January rather than December as otherwise you will have a whole bunch of admin for a stub period where you have no profits.

Overall maybe it is better to see if your business model works first and that you will have profits before diving into this structure.
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22 Sep 2011
Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

They do not want 60-70 sqm apartments unless they are young professionals with no kids. I lived in such a place and thought it was great but guess what, 3 weeks after my first kid was born I decided it might be nice to have another room and we moved into a house.

The fact is that 60-70 sqm apartments are all people can afford at the current prices. Ergo prices will come down or the market will stagnate.

The build cost might be 6000 per sqm I dont know much about apartment materials but I do know a lot about build costs for office space (circa PLN 3500), for warehouse space (circa PLN 2000) and for retail space (circa PLN 4000) and cannot see where such a high cost comes from unless it is inflated land values, inflated builders margins or, heaven forbid, inflated developers margins.

And as I have said many times just where is an average joe earning 3000 per month going to get a deposit of say PLN 100k ?
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15 Sep 2011
Law / Why is US $ getting so high or Polish zloty falling? [60]

Too many pub numbers being used on this thread but you are both right.

The deficit is about EUR 9bn - but this is the total per year mismatch between govt spend and income.

But the total public debt is much higher - you are correct it is circa USD 252 bn. In PLN its 790 bn. This is the accumulated overspend plus interest and the amount that has to be paid back at some point in the future, just like to Irish and the Brits and the Spanish need to. Make no mistake its a serious problem, its got worse under PO which really surprizes me and it need to be fixed soon - not all of the anti zloty sentiment is caused by Euro issues.

Just the debt service cost on that is circa EUR 10bn per annum.

Obviously the first step to getting the public debt down is to have no annual deficit.

Does it really cost 60m usd for a roundabout ? The whole 20km stretch that the Chinese were arguing about was only EUR 200m.

And by billion I mean of course 1000 million - I don't think anyone in Europe uses the million million version anymore except in France it once caused me some confusion.
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14 Sep 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

At 24.000 a month I would want champagne flowing out of the taps. You could have the best suite in the Intercontinental for that and be right in the middle of town ! How big is this place ?
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14 Sep 2011
News / 4th Polish Republic may re-emerge [244]

OK so there are plenty of negative reasons to vote against PiS - are there any positive reasons to vote for any of the rest of them ? Don't assume that the don't knows are going to support PO, I think many of them will simply not vote. I'm surprized that my wife who was a strong PO supporter, is very civic minded and always took it seriously in the past has said she will not vote this time.
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13 Sep 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Bear one thing in mind - the average wage doesn't tell the whole story. Plenty of workers will be doing extra 'on-the-side', so to speak. There's a lot of nice new houses going up in even allegedly "poor" areas - where's the money coming from?

You can get a bit of korepetycja or bar work to help pay day to day bills but the kind of cash from that will never buy property at these prices - besides to get a mortgage you generally need income that it documented and contracted for.

Affordability is the issue - Milky is quite correct, with the banks being stricter about deposits and loan to salary ratios then the amount of people who can get credit must be drastically reduced.

Surprized that nobody mentioned the long article on this in Gazeta W last Monday which talked about reasons why young couples can no longer afford flats. It had plenty Milky's sentiments but was backed by plenty of numbers.

As for investing in smaller towns then developers would be mad to do that at the moment - there is so much good vacant property there as many towns have shrinking populations as young people head for cities or abroad.
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8 Sep 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I agree. The only problem I can see with this, is that the cost of rents will rise along with the cost of living. Will people be able to afford ever increasing rents, save enough to buy a house outright and have a good enough pension to retire on?

Why ? rents will move according to supply and demand. The rent I get for one of my flats which is good and well located has been stuck at 1300 for 4 years but wages have increased 30% in that time. I have not been able to fill it at a higher price - the times when I offered it for higher it just sat around unoccupied for a couple of months until readvertized and I would rather have reliable tenants paying 1300 than take a risk on someone new.

There are plenty of examples of rents falling in all sectors - housing, retail, office space, warehousing - I would say they are all going down at present or static at best.
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1 Sep 2011
Language / Simultaneous translators in Poland [5]

Thanks for replies - would be within 50k of Poznan in some hotel/conf centre and we would either provide transport each day or the person could stay over if they have no family commitments.

Reason I went for an agency is because I did what most people would do if their boss asked them to find a simultanaous translator - stuck it into google and went for the ones who looked most experienced. It does of course protect you again being let down by an individual who gets sick etc.

So if anyone has any good contacts PM me and I will wing a bottle of vodka or wino over.
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31 Aug 2011
Language / Simultaneous translators in Poland [5]

Have been looking for simultaneous translators for a weeks work but ran into a problem - contacted 3 big agencies and said that I would like to meet the translators and give them a half hour audition before signing up. I even offered to pay their time for this audition.

The reason I wanted to check them before hand is that over the years here I've encountered plenty of bad (and good) translators and that qualification does not always tally with practical experience.

However all 3 of them took umbrage at this suggestion and said that while they are available for the job they would not participate in any such audition - even if I came into their office to do it !

Any way around that or does anybody know any agencies that might be more commercially astute ?
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11 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

If the house is your home and not an investment then it doesnt have an effect. For that to work however then you would need the total of mortgage payments to be less than the total of rent payments you would pay if you rented.

Rent is generally subject to inflation so when inflation was say 5% then a home purchase should pay off provided that the property was not overpriced and that interest rates do not go crazy.

But if you purchase for an investment and intend to resell the house to cash in that investment then you need to get a real return that is higher than the inflation in that period. Otherwise generally you would have been better off with some other form of investment - German shares Buy Buy ! :)
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9 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Bit bizarre being ranted at for not being glued to my computer on a Sunday night. I did a few other things - put the kids to bed, watched telly, had a beer with my in laws.

Yes the stock market in Germany has fallen by now 15% but I'm willing to measure my prediction over 1 year, 3 years, 10 years or 20 years. Somewhere here you still have my prediction made in 2010 that Polish property prices would be down 30% by the opening game of Euro 2012 and I'm prepared to stick with that and meet you outside the stadium with a bottle of good scotch if I am wrong.

I dont think I have ever slagged Poland off in economic terms - maybe on specific issues like the infrastructure or debt or bureaucracy but in general I'm positive about the place and with a few ups and downs have made a good living over here for 10 years.

Regarding Ziemowits point - I worked for 3 years in Germany with many listed companies in a financial role so I do have some knowledge. On the Polish property point then I have 3 properties here and rent another one (because I dont want to buy !). The last one I bought was in 2006 so maybe I have missed a trick - time will tell.

And I am certainly no socialist !

A crucial part of my point was that Polish property is illiquid at the moment. If German shares start to fall then you can sell them for small brokerage fee and with only mild tax consequences. Or you can sell SOME of them and keep the others. With a flat you cannot sell the kitchen and keep the living room and when you sell it you absorb lots of time and costs.

The other thing nobody has mentioned is that if like many expats you are paid in Euro then a Zloty denominated house has lost 4% of its value in the last 12 days and if you are unwise enough to have Swiss Franc mortgage then the cost of the house has just gone up 10%.

Certainly the events of recent days will not be positive for the Polish housing market - the Polish stock market has seen heavier falls of circa 18%, the falling zloty will drive inflation and possibly interest rates and the threats to big Polish mortgage lenders like Unicredit and Millennium will result in more difficulty for Polish punters to get credit.

On Kamienicas then a good question - they are well built and you will always find people who want to live close to town but quite a few town centers are moving their office space and even restaurants and bars into other areas but the lack of parking and the amount of idiots in hoodies walking around is always going to deter families and I think the DINKY demographic is not so strong in Poland as it is in the West. I think with underground parking and the whole kamienica being renovated then they might work well.
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1 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

But rent is far lower than mortgage payments at the moment - rent for a 50 sqm place is about PLN 1400 here in Poznan and the cost is at least PLN 300k.

Assume a 10% deposit and 6% APR over 20 years and that leaves a mortgage payment of PLN 1.900. The PLN 500 gap to renting is circa 20% of an average wage earners disposable income. On top of that then Jan Q Pole would also have to find PLN 30.000 for a deposit - 18 months disposable income.

The numbers for property prices just do not add up at the moment. Apart from dishing out personal abuse to Milky and quibbing about a crash v a correction then there's not a lot rationale behind your statements.

As a final point none of the price data shown seems to take into account the incentives given now - free parking space or garage, holidays etc which make the actual prices lower
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30 Jul 2011
Work / Polish attitude towards promotions at work [11]

This is typical in any society - worked in UK, Germany and the US and the same reaction anywhere.

What is a bit strange in Poland is the attitude to career advancement - people care very much about titles (wanting to be called specialist, manager or director etc) but do not often have the application and desire to work patiently to a promotion - instead they come and ask for pay rises out of the blue - and do the gun to the head that they will go to a competitor (which 70% of the time it is best to ignore).
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28 Jul 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

One that gave you real growth in your income and did not involve lots of transaction charges and currency risks.

Polish govt bonds are as good as any at the moment. Or German if you are worried about PO's deficits. Or German stocks or hundreds of other things I would choose before Polish property.

If you want to live there then fine but with price to rent ratios what they are you would need to live there 20-25 years to pay it off (comparing the cost of a PLN 300k apartment to say 1500 per month rent).
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28 Jul 2011
Work / Got a job offer (involving Hungarian and Romanian languages) in Krakow. Potential salary? [28]

despite their reputation, Biedronka are now actually one of the top payers in Polish retail. Avg for a store asst in the sector is about 1.700 gross and a bit more in Warsaw.

For your job then if you dont have any skills or experience other than your language then I think about 2500- 3000 is what you could get. If you do have some other marketable skills then more like 4k depending on what it is.
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28 Jul 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

er nobody - there is oversupply at the moment hence the falling prices. Its also part of the reason lots of Poles still live in extended family units - because they can not afford a flat or at least can not get credit now the banks have started to be more strict about salary ratios in their mortgage applications.

I think a few years ago I predicted a 40% drop by 2012 - so we are not at that level - above drops are 13% or so, but there is a still a year to go so lets see who ends up correct. Certainly would consider property an unwise investment in Poland at the moment.
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10 Jul 2011
Travel / Traveling around Poland - our photo stories with very personal commentary [225]

Compare to Slovakia - which has a whole 20km of motorway (well, expressway!) on the main road between Katowice and Budapest - Poland really isn't doing badly.

I can think of at least 350k of motorway in Slovakia - to Trnava, Banka (with a few breaks), Brno, Vienna. Per head its a lot more than the Poles have and it is not always down to one lane like the Polish ones or, nor does it cost 5 euro to do a 100k like I paid a couple of days ago between Konin and Lodz.
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6 Jul 2011
Real Estate / WOODEN HUNTERS TOWERS ON MY LAND in POLAND.....is it legal....? [59]

Hang on - so there is no way you can object to hunters on your land ?

I once came out and told some hunters that they were not welcome on my land, that if they fought the board or deer with their bare hands it was acceptable but otherwise they could find somewhere else to hunt. I don't have huge moral objections but I dont want it done on my land. These guys accepted it, did tell me that they had right to do it under law but didnt want to upset me and went away - so maybe dialogue would work.
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29 Jun 2011
Work / The Goal: 3000pln a month, Lets make it happen! [13]

If you have an American CPA license surely you can put up with doing some accounting work for a week and sititng around doing nothing for the other 3 weeks. Might be boring I'm sure that would give you 3000 and wouldnt involve showing any tourists around in the rain.
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29 Jun 2011
Travel / Plusbus Poznan-Lodz [8]

No it does not.

A similar service does exist called polskibus.com - they have just started - times are not so convenient, in fact it is late at night, but the price is about PLN 15 and sometimes PLN 25.
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28 Jun 2011
News / Wal-Mart coming to Poland? [146]

Its simple - its a free country since 1989.

If you want to shop at a mom and pop shop then do so. It has some advantages - no petrol cost being the only one I can think of. And it has some disadvantages - surly slow service, stuff not put in the fridge, people brushing your arse all the time in the aisle, drunks outside etc. Until they fix those things they can't really complain about unfair competition - on Sunday I waited about 15 minutes behind a bunch of old biddies fiddling with their coins and all I wanted was a liter of milk and some bulki. Walmart's till line time is about 1 minute per person and they have self check out too in the US.

If you want to shop at Walmart then do so. Its bigger choice and cheaper but yes sometimes a waste of time and a long way and not a good place to buy a chess set.
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16 Jun 2011
News / Poles in work-life balance crisis [22]

Did an interesting exercise at our workplace - people were complaining about overwork and unpaid overtime so we started to properly measure, recorded everyones time and paid out those who were working extra.

But the actual average amount of overtime in a 1000 person company was only 4 hours per head, so circa 3% extra and 1 hour per week. If you were to take out the time employees spend tossing around on facebook, talking on their cellphones for personal business, making coffee, smoking etc then I'm not convinced they are working themselves to death.
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14 May 2011
Work / Chartered accountant from India joining a company in Poland. Cost of living in Poznan? [29]

Nonsense - there are surely no qualified accountants - either KIBR or ACCA willing to work for such cash. If there are then I most certainly wouldn't want their advice on my own money ! Maybe some very old KIBR people with no English skills but that is not the norm at all.

I'm interviewing for a post at the moment and the 4 on my shortlist have current earnings of 10-12k. And these are newly qualified people. If you want someone with 3-4 years experience after qualifying you have to pay more.

Of course there are people with lesser qualifications like diploms working for 6k but that was not the question.
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27 Apr 2011
News / Poland's Lost Generation [172]

4 per cent is not much more than the official inflation figures - and those official figures don't tell the whole truth believe me

With respect they are more reliable than anecdotal evidence from your brother. Lots of food prices actually fell last year as did many imported goods as the zloty got stronger. As for cigarettes well there is an obvious answer to that problem and one I took painfully several years ago - stop paying to kill yourself.

There is no reason why wage increases should outstrip inflation - the rationale for wage increases should be increased productivity.
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26 Apr 2011
News / Poland's Lost Generation [172]

wages are stagnant,

wages are not stagnant - on average they are up by 4% this year and 6-7% in bigger towns.

I think more of an issue is that inequality is growing - i.e. some skilled people are getting very good wages and unskilled workers are indeed seeing stagnation.