Real Estate /
Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]
Bit bizarre being ranted at for not being glued to my computer on a Sunday night. I did a few other things - put the kids to bed, watched telly, had a beer with my in laws.
Yes the stock market in Germany has fallen by now 15% but I'm willing to measure my prediction over 1 year, 3 years, 10 years or 20 years. Somewhere here you still have my prediction made in 2010 that Polish property prices would be down 30% by the opening game of Euro 2012 and I'm prepared to stick with that and meet you outside the stadium with a bottle of good scotch if I am wrong.
I dont think I have ever slagged Poland off in economic terms - maybe on specific issues like the infrastructure or debt or bureaucracy but in general I'm positive about the place and with a few ups and downs have made a good living over here for 10 years.
Regarding Ziemowits point - I worked for 3 years in Germany with many listed companies in a financial role so I do have some knowledge. On the Polish property point then I have 3 properties here and rent another one (because I dont want to buy !). The last one I bought was in 2006 so maybe I have missed a trick - time will tell.
And I am certainly no socialist !
A crucial part of my point was that Polish property is illiquid at the moment. If German shares start to fall then you can sell them for small brokerage fee and with only mild tax consequences. Or you can sell SOME of them and keep the others. With a flat you cannot sell the kitchen and keep the living room and when you sell it you absorb lots of time and costs.
The other thing nobody has mentioned is that if like many expats you are paid in Euro then a Zloty denominated house has lost 4% of its value in the last 12 days and if you are unwise enough to have Swiss Franc mortgage then the cost of the house has just gone up 10%.
Certainly the events of recent days will not be positive for the Polish housing market - the Polish stock market has seen heavier falls of circa 18%, the falling zloty will drive inflation and possibly interest rates and the threats to big Polish mortgage lenders like Unicredit and Millennium will result in more difficulty for Polish punters to get credit.
On Kamienicas then a good question - they are well built and you will always find people who want to live close to town but quite a few town centers are moving their office space and even restaurants and bars into other areas but the lack of parking and the amount of idiots in hoodies walking around is always going to deter families and I think the DINKY demographic is not so strong in Poland as it is in the West. I think with underground parking and the whole kamienica being renovated then they might work well.