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Posts by cms  

Joined: 4 Sep 2009 / Male ♂
Last Post: 22 Feb 2018
Threads: Total: 9 / In This Archive: 8
Posts: Total: 1253 / In This Archive: 915

Speaks Polish?: yes

Displayed posts: 923 / page 27 of 31
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cms   
21 Mar 2012
Law / clothing brand troll and tatuum in poland? [10]

None - they were rebranded several years ago after a few years or making losses. Now are called Top Secret and Co or something like that.
cms   
21 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

to my knowledge, no major development company has gone bankrupt

How about Erbud, Leopard, Orco (in bankruptcy protection in France) ?

There are at least 3 other major cases pending.

Why would the government have worked on that developer law if there was not an issue ?
cms   
21 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

The definition of a bubble has been posted here many times if you care to read the entire thread. There is no bubble in Poland.

Yes, the wikipedia definition is posted on here and would support the fact that there is a bubble.
cms   
21 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

How many people live in Wilanow and Konstancin

I think we probably move in similar circles actually, although I'm maybe less fixated about school fees and what kind of car I drive.

In Wilanow there are 20.000 people and in Konstancin 16.000. The whole population of Warsaw is 1,7m so those rich people in whose circles you move actually make up 2% of the population. By contrast there are more than 100.000 people in each of Wola, Targowek, Ochota and you may have noticed they mostly live in commie blocks, shop at Biedronka and go to work by tram not by 4x4.

The 5.500 average is a correct figure.

I'm not surprized carpenters make decent money, its quite a skilled job, he can take on as much work as he can handle and it cant be outsourced to China.
cms   
21 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

a bubble is a different thing. there are definitions in real estate that are standard around the world

Yes and we are still waiting for your definition.

This is a bubble and its popping rapidly.

Jan and Feb price data can be found e.g. on Oferty.net, falls of circa 6-8% per sqm in most towns.
cms   
20 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

sorry, not for a second do I believe that. It is an average number you are giving me- which is not an accurate representation- it is an average

Of course it is an average but the median would of course be even lower.

What is the most reliable source - the Polish statistics office or your cousin in Gdansk ?
cms   
20 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

Pip of that were the case then why is the average salary for Warsaw 5500 gross ?

There are probably less than 200.000 people in the whole of Poland earning more than 10k a month.
cms   
17 Mar 2012
Genealogy / Looking for Graiper family [8]

There is also opole lubelskie which would have been in Russia at the time and may fit in with the Lublin grajpers. It's a town of about 9000 people
cms   
15 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

It's not based on asking prices. The asterisk only applies to brazil.

Knight Frank are a very respected source and other consultancies like REAS are showing similar figures
cms   
13 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

The year on year rise was 4,5% and that is the relevant figure.

The 8% is a month on month rise compared to November - of course its higher every year as people get their christmas bonus.
cms   
10 Mar 2012
Work / Minimum basic salary in Poland [96]

There are fairly reliable statistics on the grey economy in poland - world bank estimates 29 percent of GDP, a recent AT Kearney study estimates 26 percent.

However grey economy is more in cities than in rural areas - concentrated in building trades, hospitality trade.
cms   
8 Mar 2012
Law / British managers superior to Polish [52]

Let's wait until it's over before casting judgement. Ithink the matches themselves will go ok and the visiting fans will have a good time. But I think transport and accommodation will be pretty dodgy. There is just too much to achieve in 3 months
cms   
8 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I don't remember agreeing to that source - thought it was oferty.pl. Bit I'm too pissed to look for the post.

Anyway, yes you are ahead at the moment.
cms   
8 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Krakman would you make that choice if you were on a local wage ? 600 quid per month in your pocket in krakow ? Just the capital portion alone would absorb almost 15 year of your entire income.

What relevance does Britain in 1990 have to poland in 2012 ? I also made good money on a place in the 90s but it was a totally different set of circumstances with a couple of important government kick starts like flogging off council houses and big improvement grants. I would also say the behaviour of the british consumers in withdrawing paper money equity to pay for plasma screens and trips to Florida is a disastrous legacy of that book.
cms   
7 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Sorry , I mixed up lodz and Wroclaw. Lodz showing a 19 percent fall from peak, Wroclaw a 32 percent fall from peak. The source is REAS, one of the more respected consultancies on the Market.

The basis is price per sqm of developers standard without garage on new properties. I.e it is apples for apples. However they also say that there is almost two years worth of housing stock on the Market, meaning that some of the properties are the same ones showing falling prices.
cms   
7 Mar 2012
History / Wrocław's Train Station: Not A Happy Place. [39]

I went a couple of weeks ago and was appalled. Yes they are renovating but there were no signs, no lifts working, pools of **** in the corridor, no clear indication of exit and taxi rank. All things that could be fixed easily.

Mind you Warsaw seems to have had broken escalators for almost a year - what is so difficult about turning these on ?
cms   
6 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

So if we use stats then we are akin to greek bureaucrats if we don't use them we are asked for a source. Sounds like you are the one that is difficult to educate.

As for the argument about what would you have after 25 years its not as simple

- you would save repair costs and time and hassle
- you would have much more flexibility during that 25 year period if you wanted to move
- some of the proerty sold at the moment is so shoddy I would be amazed if it's here in 25 years and will certainly look very distressed.

- you could have invested your surplus cash in something else in the meantime.

Plenty of countries have that occupancy model including germany and holland and they are not noticeably poorer.

Re the Warsaw prices, if you bother to read the full article you would see that each Market is referred to in terms of fall from peak, I have no idea what the currency movement was from Warsaw peak but it could obviously be different from that in Poznan.

But in zloty terms some markets are already showing 30 percent falls from peak - e.g. Lodz
cms   
5 Mar 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

In which case they are misguided to pay the current bubble prices. You could comfortably rent a place for 25 years for the same amount of money as is being asked in some towns.

Mind you big falls in prices in January in some towns, Wroclaw and lodz especially. Plenty of sources. Reas , oferty.pl,

The 44 percent falls noted in that article are possible as it was referring to euro amounts in the full report. Add a 20 percent zloty fall to a 20 percent currency effect.
cms   
3 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

If you want some honest advice

- you speak Arabic but your English is quite weak compared to local graduates which will be an issue for your employer
- you are not qualified and after 7 years of accounting you should know that is what is required to earn good money
- if you turned up to get a job from me I would compare your demands with the combined cost of a polish bookkeeper and an Arabic school new graduate who could translate for them , and I reckon that would come in less than 7000 zloty.

But show some gumption, ask your employers for what you think will support your lifestyle and wait for them to say yes or no.
cms   
3 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

Disagree pip, this looks like bog standard shared service centre work, bookkeeping and accounts preparation. 5000 net is about 7500 gross and that is not a bad salary for such work by polish standards. If the salaries get any higher than that then these companies will probably be moving their shared service centres to romania, turkey or the next place.
cms   
3 Mar 2012
Work / Salary expectations in Poland [373]

Are you qualified ? If so then you are being offered about half the going rate.

If you are not qualified then I would say what they have offered is a fair salary for krakow. You will live ok but not luxury?
cms   
20 Feb 2012
Work / Minimum basic salary in Poland [96]

ifor bach

No, despite the ridicule, she was more or less correct.

Minimum wage is 1.405. Hours per week is 38, there are 4,5 weeks in a month. I think the typical number of hours is 162.

That makes PLN 8,67 gross. Take off deductions and its PLN 6,72 per hour. A supermarket cashier in a soft labour market like Szczecin would not earn more than about 10% above the minumum. I dont think all of those people are lazy, some of them just have lower academic abilities and to a bunch of unpaid overtime probably wouldnt get them much more in life than a pat on the back and a food hamper at christmas.

The minimum wage has just gone up by about 6% though.

Comparing that to an accounting clerk in Poznan does not make sense - for a start 6000 cost to company is 5000 gross and presumably that is for someone with a bit of English ability. That is about right in a town where you are competing with 4 or 5 big outsource centres, each of which might employ 100 such clerks.
cms   
18 Feb 2012
Work / Minimum basic salary in Poland [96]

In Warsaw about 5500 gross but the median is much lower

In krakow about 4500 gross at a guess.

Check the gus website for exact figures, there was a long article about it in gazeta wyborcza last week as well
cms   
10 Feb 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I think the "real" fall is 21% - take 2008 as your start point i.e. 100% and if you have a 5% fall and a 3% fall in house prices. = 100 x 1,05 x 1,03 = 1,0815%.

Then apply 3 years compound inflation to get to your real rate = 1,0815 x 1,035 x 1,031 x 1,046 = 121%.

However no point arguing about real falls at the absolute falls are going to be 20% :)

Now we are waiting for Pip to provide her definition of a bubble !

People aren't paying that much. The average wage in Poland is now 3,416zl per month, which is 40,992zl per year. In some cities (such as Slupsk), a one-bedroom flat can be had for less than two years' wages.

what is the average salary in slupsk ? I cannot be bothered to look it up but I know from my own work that it has a big depopulation problem (about 6% reduction since end of Communism with that 6% being mostly made up of wage earning men in their 20s and 30s) and a high unemployment rate.
cms   
28 Jan 2012
News / Poland now soft-pedalling ACTA signing [107]

Maybe the content companies have got outdated business models but it's difficult in any industry to build a new business model based on giving away your product for free. I don't know much about ACTA and I can't be bothered to learn about it but I'm not sure any media group is making good profits at the moment except iTunes.
cms   
22 Jan 2012
Law / Dying in Poland - Inheritance tax ? [62]

Fair enough. Seems you are more up to date than me.

Yes I've been to pulawy, but in 2001. Must make a return trip !
cms   
21 Jan 2012
Law / Dying in Poland - Inheritance tax ? [62]

That sounds more like capital gains tax than inheritance tax. Have to say I always thought that there was no iht payable if the deceased is not a polish tax resident and it may be worth you rechecking that with accountants or a proper lawyer as pulawy is just a small tax office and I'm no expert n that. You can still make a claim most likely if it was paid incorrectly. That said I presume you only paid tax of about 4000 quid and an accountant will cost you about 500 euro to write the appropriate letters.