Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Here's another gazeta wyborcza article from today. Seems like there is a daily feed from them at the moment, and also good links to prices on their own websites.

Poles not in my head now buying apartments. Those who depend on a quick sale , so they are forced to lower their prices - Inevitably approaching holidays, which are not the best time to sell the property. In addition, all intentional or slightly less enthusiastic, we are involved in Euro 2012.

Plus another big builder with big cash flow problems, Polimex - they are again really a civil engineering firm but they have tried their hand at residential estates near Warsaw too


Nothing stupid about my comment - 8 developments x say 30 apartments x 60 sqm. If its impossible to build for less than 4000 per sqm then thats PLN 57m on their balance sheet to deal with. Thats more than just a case of keeping your architects busy for a few months.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Well I got to 2 - 266 and 284 but there must be more, unfortunately I have work to do !

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Avalon has said that on many occasions somewhere in the depths of this thread.

Real Estate / Polish Property - should I keep renting it out? [17]

Some of the things written here are way too alarmist. You have made a bad investment, its not the same as being a rapist or a thief. I dont think the poster said anywhere he was speculating - maybe it was a family home ? In any case one lesson you should learn is never to take out loans in an unrelated currency.

Personal bankruptcy does apply in Poland and has done for about 3 years since they changed the law. Its not easy compared to UK or US since you have to make monthly reports in Polish etc but in any case if you have severed your links with Poland its not really worth doing it unless your mortgage debt is crippling.

If I were you I would find a lawyer in the town where the property is and make sure that you are dealing with the correct person in the bank. The best thing to do would be to ask if they will accept a "cesja" for an indefinite period where any money you get in rent is transferred directly to the bank. That way they will know they are getting all the income possibly from the site and they will see it as a show of good faith on your part. This tends to work in commercial properties (where I have lots of experience) and will buy you some more time at least until the zloty gains some strength.

European arrest warrants are I thought for civil matters only. I'm no lawyer but a quick glance at wikipedia states

"An EAW can only be issued for the purposes of conducting a criminal prosecution (not merely an investigation), or enforcing a custodial sentence.[1] It can only be issued for offences carrying a maximum penalty of 12 months or more."

None of the above apply, so I suggest you go about your travels without fear that you will be put in an orange jumpsuit. I know the Polish government is using these for bringing petty criminals back from the UK, but I think even the UK border authorities might baulk at chasing up mortgage defaulters, otherwise the queues at immigration when a flight arrives from Athens would be something to behold.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

So a few months ago you were saying no developers were going bust but now that they start to go bust you say they were the wrong kind of developers. Let me guess, Poland is different :)

In fact PBG's housing operations are not massive, only 8 developments, but neither are they tiny.

Nobody picked up on yesterday's Gazeta Wyborcza article showing not only good data on falling asking prices and real falls compared bto inflation but also that the gap between asking prices and achieved is now getting very wide - a 9% difference for a 2 room place. In some towns then really big differences e.g a studio in Wroclaw 18%, in Warsaw 14%. (in Gdansk bizarrely its 2% higher !).

Dont worry, its just a levelling out.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I dont think they will cut rates at the moment - would damage the zloty which is having a real shaky few months. Probably going to be autumn before any rate cut even considered.

Law / HELP - Polish Tax Issue! "Ryczałt"? [3]

Not sure how significant the cash is but if over 150 k euro then you have a route out as the Ryczalt rule can not apply. That would save you from a drastic step like giving up property.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

5 months to go ! It's early doors ! We did have 10 percent in wroclaw though :)

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Quite arrogant really - I own 3 properties over here, one I would say was a great investment, one OK and one awful. Nothing to do with wisdom and everything to do with luck and timing. I'm in the market for another one and after 6 months of haggling think I might get it for 30% less than the asking price.

With all the discussion about sources I'm surprized nobody else picked up the Rzeczpospolita article from Tuesday showing year on year falls in the secondary market of 10% in Poznan, 8% in Lodz and Warsaw and 6% in Wroclaw.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Are you sure ? I havent seen that yet ! I know obviously Provident are doing good business here but I didnt know the payday loan thing has started in Poland. Bad sign if it has.

As for whether 50 sqm is big or small then try doing your marital duties in the bedroom with the kids sleeping in the lounge/kids bedroom and then all wake up to share your 10sqm kitchen and 6 sqm bathroom. Lived like this for a few months and it soon gets tiresome.

Law / Where to find a postcode map of Poland? [4]

thanks for the help - thats useful

what I was rather looking for was a map of the towns with the postcodes printed onto it. reason is to process market research data - I have a list of customers postcodes and want to put it onto a map. In e.g. Germany you can get such a map of each towns.

Real Estate / What do you pay in rent/mortgage in Poland? [144]

delphiandomine

Its a difficult one - it has had lots of consequences on the market now but at the time it was probably the best thing to do - at least it gave people a roof over their head at the time that shock therapy was needed but obviously causing huge job losses.

If homelessness was added to hyperinflation, mass unemployment and the release of social tensions then Poland could easily have gone the way of some of the weaker states like Ukraine. Instead it stayed with the richer group like Czech and Hungary.

Real Estate / Commission for selling apartment in Poland [5]

Put 4 percent but with a cap of 10 k. You will get agents willing to work for that as it is thin times.

Work / Quitting my work, going to the next one in Poland! Help and advice needed. [2]

Answers to your questions

Yes
No - work your two weeks notice by law. In practice company A probably never want to see your face again so will let you gomthe same day.

Yes - be very sure on your work permit issues for company B. If they don't sort it you may have big problems.

Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

One thing that is getting very expensive is parking

- from a random trip to Poznan this weekend.

- Airport 12 zloty. I was there for 35 minutes.
- Hotel Andersa - there for lunch, maybe 90 minutes 10 zloty.
- rutted and dirty piece of land near Rynek - was for 70 minutes - 8 zloty.

These prices have all doubled in recent years and the "kazdy rozpoczete godzina" thing is a rip off.

But in general I have no idea how the Poles afford their cars - it certainly seems a huge status symbol for them or their work is paying for it. Petrol proportional to wages is I think the highest in Europe (maybe Hungary is higher). Motorway costs are also a rip off - 12 or 13 zlots for less than 100km.

Real Estate / Foreign investor, properties in Poland, walk away from mortgages? [209]

Ok as long as you never want to borrow money for anything again. If you might ever like a loan for your kids college or a car to get to work suggest you don't walk away but come to some kind of settlement

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


No I'm not. I gave a source, a timeline and an exact figure. Of course its based on town averages - to stop the kind of pub arguments you are using.

You have no evidence apart from some anecdotal nonsense about Sea Towers. Those apartments remain unsold - I know because I'm staying in one during the Euro's. They will join their sister white elephants in Orca and Sky Tower Wroclaw and still be on the market in 2015.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


Yes they have. Reas is showing a 22% fall in Trojmiasto since 2008. Not sure how much of Gdansk's housing stock is in the old town but it cant be more than 5%. Normal Poles have to choose somewhere with parking and access to schools and shopping than somewhere with a 17th century gable and an overpriced restaurant next door.

Real Estate / MNE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY , LOFTS, U SCHEIBLERA, LODZ [36]

why dont you then try and cut a deal with the new owner (probably a bank) to release your property for an extra payment e.g. 50.000 PLN - would give the bank a slightly smaller loss.

Work / Polish minimum wage between Luxembourg and Bulgaria [13]

Actually the number of people who are on minimum wage is quite low, about 3% of the workforce. But wages in Poland are a bit high compared to the people with whom they are competiing for investment (e.g. Slovakia).

Life / Polish word for 'queue' [18]


No, not on budget airlines.

Travel / How much money required for 6 days stay in Warsaw ? [6]

Actually it's getting surprisingly expensive on some things - yesterday for example I ate a lasagne and a bottle of mineral water and an espresso at a fairly modest Italian and it came to 60 zloty. Didn't surprise me but was only as a I was walking out that I thought it's more or less the same price as Paris or Frankfurt.

So 500 for a. 6 day stay would be enough to live but you wouldnt have much fun. I think double it and you will be ok.

Real Estate / MNE DEVELOPMENT COMPANY , LOFTS, U SCHEIBLERA, LODZ [36]

Sorry to hear that, but nit surprised as lodz just doesn't have enough wealthy people for that development.

One lesson for the future is to withhold your final instalment until you have the ownership papers. Worked for me one time but not sure how desperate this situation is in. Lodz.

See another listed developer has also submitted bankruptcy papers, intakus.

There will be 3 or 4 more in the next few months.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

As to whether 4800 is a crash price is open to debate, but it would certainly be the end of the boom and would mean we were more or less back to inflation adjusted pre 2004 figures.

As an example I bought my first property in Poland in 2001 for 3000 per sqm which was going rate at the time as I looked at about 7 or 8 places. I bought without credit and at the time I thought it was a reasonable price and in cash flow terms it has just finished paying off over an 11 year term (would have been a bit quicker if it wasnt for a few bad tenants).

Compound inflation at that time has been 42% - so essentially house prices will have increased 14% in real terms. Not a bad return and certainly better than a lot of my stocks over the same grim period, but not an earth shattering piece of business, especially in an emerging market.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Well like most sensible investors I'm about 30 percent each in cash, stocks and property and about 10 percent in other things.

If any of the other categories decreased by 35 percent I would consider that very drastic.

One sure sign of a bubble is people saying this time the normal rules don't apply. Poland cannot escape basic economics.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

You don't need to put your thousands in inverted comments. The numbers of unsold apartments has already been shown.

Yes there are luxury properties there but also many standard developments, especially in the larger provincial towns.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

er...because whatever the economic climate there will always be some people that must move, normally for one of 6 reasons - new jobs, marriage, more kids, kids leaving home, divorce, retirement.

I appreciate that reasoned debate doesn't seem to be your strong suit but surely the measure to look at is how many units. All data shows that there are far lower transaction numbers than in previous years.

In addition the time spent on average to shift each unit is increasing quite drastically with some towns like Lodz and Wroclaw showing almost 2 years worth of housing stock on the market.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


OK so I will answer your question. Increases in Polish house prices far exceeded either economic growth, inflation or wage growth in the period 2004-2008. Therefore the affordability of property was reduced drastically, therefore less people will be able to get finance for that.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I don't think the opinion of real estate people is worthless and have never said that. More that it should be viewed with caution. Regarding your keynote speaker - he is hardly going to stand up at a real estate conference and say the market is way too high and its time to sell.

The difference to a doctor is that he has nothing to gain by overhyping your condition (at least in the public sector !) and also that to be a doctor you need to be qualified and understand the techical aspects of your job. I am surprized by the amount of real estate people in Poland that dont understand basic valuation concepts - discounted cash flows, yields, vacancy rates, case-schiller measurements etc.

What is your evidence that the commercial sector is getting better ? Totally at odds with my own understanding

warehouse/industrial (where I have most experience) - rents, occupancy and purchase costs are all going down.
retail (where I have quite a lot of experience) - rents going down sharply everywhere except Warsaw, vacancy going up sharply and it appears a huge number of white elephant shopping centres being built in the provinces.

office - I dont know much about that but I would be surprized if there was much happening apart from central warsaw.