teargas
5 Jun 2015
News / Presidential elections and debates 2015 Poland [472]
PiS and Kukiz do not have 65% of the vote combined. Don't forget that PO won 48.5% in the Presidential election during a shockingly bad campaign, and in the first round, took 33% of the vote. Don't forget that PO have heavy resources behind them, particularly as the business community is overwhelmingly behind them, and those resources will pay for a brutal campaign against PiS. Every single mistake by Duda will be relentlessly analysed and criticised, and PO will be in the somewhat strange situation of a ruling party being able to behave as if it's in opposition.
A far more realistic outcome would have PiS narrowly winning with around 32-34% of the vote, PO winning 30-32%, Kukiz taking 10-12% along with NowoczesnaPL and the PSL taking 5-6%. It could be enough (just) for PiS-Kukiz, but it would be a razor thin majority.
As for PiS, they have a history of causing trouble with coalition partners. Whether Kukiz would be foolish enough to sign any agreement with PiS without getting control of the MSW, well.
More to the point,
PiS and Kukiz do not have 65% of the vote combined. Don't forget that PO won 48.5% in the Presidential election during a shockingly bad campaign, and in the first round, took 33% of the vote. Don't forget that PO have heavy resources behind them, particularly as the business community is overwhelmingly behind them, and those resources will pay for a brutal campaign against PiS. Every single mistake by Duda will be relentlessly analysed and criticised, and PO will be in the somewhat strange situation of a ruling party being able to behave as if it's in opposition.
A far more realistic outcome would have PiS narrowly winning with around 32-34% of the vote, PO winning 30-32%, Kukiz taking 10-12% along with NowoczesnaPL and the PSL taking 5-6%. It could be enough (just) for PiS-Kukiz, but it would be a razor thin majority.
As for PiS, they have a history of causing trouble with coalition partners. Whether Kukiz would be foolish enough to sign any agreement with PiS without getting control of the MSW, well.
More to the point,