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Posts by Avalon  

Joined: 11 Sep 2007 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - S
Last Post: 6 Dec 2015
Threads: Total: 4 / In This Archive: 2
Posts: Total: 1063 / In This Archive: 737

Displayed posts: 739 / page 17 of 25
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Avalon   
15 Aug 2011
News / Multi-culti (in Poland) -- roadmap to disaster? [344]

The certificate expires, but the residency itself doesn't - at least, that's how I understand it.

I bet I have to take all the same fekin documents back again when it expires.
Avalon   
15 Aug 2011
UK, Ireland / Poles in England / English in Poland crime [25]

The English police seem very keen to help their Polish counterparts, so, I get the feeling that as its only likely to be the odd one that they would have to pick up, they would bend over backwards to show that they are just as capable of obliging here. I would imagine they would enjoy the novelty value as there are a couple of thousand Poles in the English prison system.
Avalon   
15 Aug 2011
News / Multi-culti (in Poland) -- roadmap to disaster? [344]

I also have permanent residency status and when this expires

Just curious, is the Polish "permanent" different from the English "permanent"? how can it expire?
Avalon   
14 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

States that The county of Lublin will loose between 20 and 40 % of it population between now and 2035.

So thats Lublin, do not develop or buy there. That only leaves the rest of Poland. Unless Milky, you are suggesting that of the 38 miilion people left in Poland, 12 million are going to disappear?

Is that another famous prediction?
Avalon   
12 Aug 2011
Law / Permanent Residence in Polska: procedures, list of documents, etc. [59]

No sane person relies on the Polish medical system, you need private cover!

I disagree. Saw a heart specialist here in Poland on a Wednesday, he said there was a problem. He phoned me on the Friday night and told me he had managed to get me an Angiogram on the following Tuesday in Krakow. Had the Angiogram and was told I needed a triple bypass, this was performed on the Friday.

That was 4 years ago. No problems. Unlike the 18 months quoted in the UK for a Hernia operation where I ended up having to pay for the op privately as I was unable to work with it. Personally, considering the supposed lack of funds and underpaid staff, I think Polish health care is very good.
Avalon   
11 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

If the house is your home and not an investment then it doesnt have an effect.

Exactly. But its been implied that it should be included in the amount of falling house prices and then the poster states "So 10 years into a loan, 4% inflation will have probably added 50% to a property's value" but states previously "Compound 4% inflation for four years, plus 15% gives a real fall of 28%" which is it?
Avalon   
11 Aug 2011
Law / Permanent Residence in Polska: procedures, list of documents, etc. [59]

To have health care on a voluntary basis, it's about 220zl a month.

Delph, I have already posted about this. I have been paying a voluntary contribution to ZUS for about 4 years. It started off at around 220 złoty but has risen over the years to present cost of around 360 złoty per month.

My partner has explained that they base the amount on the average Polish wage (which seems to be rising every month). For the first couple of years we paid at the post office as it was impossible to pay by standing order at the bank, due, to a fluctuation of a couple of PLN each month. The computerised version to allow you to pay over the internet will only allow you to do so "if" you have a "NIP" number, otherwise it will not work, so, even though I do not work I had to get one.

As is typical in Poland, you still have to fill in the ZUS form and send it in every month, even though they have a record of your online payment. I take it that this is necessary for someone in the office to have something to "stamp". NOTE: If you make one mistake on the form, they will send it back and make you do it again!!!! The penalty for doing this could be detention or writing out 100 lines.
Avalon   
11 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I'm a bit confused over your argument, though. banks only need to consider the risk and the rate they pay for the money versus the rate they charge a buyer.

I was not arguing, merely wondering why you included "inflation" when demonstrating falls in house prices, when, it is never factored into long term loans as a risk?. It seems that 4% inflaation is bad because of higher prices, 2% is accepatable yet 0% is bad as there is then a fear of stagflation. Surely, inflation has no effect on what you have already purchased.

By the way, your post #215 answering Lwowskakrakow was exactly the same as I was going to write so we do agree on some things.
Avalon   
10 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Milky, we are talking about "Poland", now, today. Not what happened in Ireland 3 years ago. Can you not accept that Poland did not make the same mistakes as Ireland?

Lwowskakrakow, I see from your previous posts that you are renting out a 42m2 flat in Krakow for 1900 PLN per month, I expect that Poles could get a far larger flat and be paying less, for a mortgage.

Avalon , these facts also applied during Spain & Ireland Golden Age in Real Estate Boom? And look at what happened?
Spanish Real Estate is definitely cheaper now than Polish Real Estate for sure!

Again, you are stating what happened 3 years ago, not what is happening in Poland today. You state that it was always easier for Poles to get a mortgage. I disaree, it was never easy and its even harder now as the banks do not want any risk on their books. You mention CHF mortgages as if the huge increase in the value of the CHF was planned, even the Swiss do not know why their currency is at an all time high, its a blip that will correct itself. I was living in the UK when interest rates went from 8% to 15% overnight in the late eighties. It hurt, but, people managed and things returned to normal during the nineties.
Avalon   
10 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

This is logical if one takes into account these factors

Can you have quick look at the Warsaw Business Journal,which, is announcing on a regular basis that new, large developments are being started/planned and, explain why these people are such idiots to be contemplating any projects at all when you and all the other experts "know" that there is a "crash" coming.

Are you so sure that they never learnt any lessons from 2008? and have not done any market research for the demand of what they plan to supply? That must also mean that the Polish Banks that will finance these same projects have also got it wrong. Is that why all the Polish Banks are in trouble and have had to be bailed out?

Well!!! you learn something new every day.
Avalon   
10 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

On that line of thinking I got the biggest loan I could get and bought a farm

When considering your application for a loan, do you think the bank took into consideration what inflation might be over the next 25 years?..If as you say, inflation runs at 4% per year, the bank would have to consider that you would be in negative equity within 10 years? I am surprised that they even give out mortgages based on that presumption.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Compound 4% inflation for four years, plus 15% gives a real fall of 28%.

You have me wondering now how many people on this forum include inflation when counting any assets they own? or maybe they count next years interest on what they have in the bank as of this moment? Depreciation on a car I can understand but "inflation"? When I plan a project which may last for a period of two or three years, I do not include for the possibility that there may or may not be an inflationary period in this time. How could I base a business plan on what may not happen?. Its possible to build in a contingency sum but I do not think the bank would wear 21% as part of an accurate costing.

Still, you have been building and developing for as long as myself so you must have the experience to be right. You say you own three flats and rent another, but, could you build them?

A doctor knows about medicine but he cannot operate on you, only a surgeon can do that.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I did.
I would say a fall is of 15% per year would constitute a crash, but thats something you dispute.

What would you call -15% per year? steady? stable? gentle decline?

SeanBM took the time to show us a table of the median house price changes between 2008-2011 (post #117) in certain areas of Poland. Please explain to us where the falls of 15% per year are shown ? I cannot see a 45% disparancy so perhaps you can enlighten me.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I have never said anything about a crash either

"The article is dated, 1st August 2011.

So this is in addition to the previous 10%, add on two years of around 5% inflation and you have 30% fall from peak.

Continuing falling prices constitutes a crash, so its new".

Your post # 158, correct? I am not calling you a lliar, you probably just forgot.
Avalon   
9 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

'have crashed' is different to 'going to' or 'will'.

Either way your statement/prediction was wrong. You can nit-pick and twist and turn all you like but at the end of the day, you talk bol***ks and you are not man enough to admit it.

please keep it civil
Avalon   
8 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

You cannot make a judgment on a instantaneous share price to justify your point of view, next week prices maybe up 10%

Milky and yourself have both stated that property prices in Poland have "crashed" and are yet to fall further. In Milky's case, he has been saying this since 2009 and it has still not happened. Most people who are wrong would usually feel a little foolish by now. Not Milky, to him, everyone that disagrees talks "crap", Poland is "crap", wages are "crap", life is "crap". I wonder if he realises that his predictions and opinions are "crap"
Avalon   
8 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Nice rant avalon. Are you trying to justify property as an investment now? Given up on the 'roof over your head'?

I take it "reading and understanding" is not one of your strong points. Where in my post did I say that property was an investment?. I merely pointed out that anyone following the advice of CMS would have lost 10% in the last few days, whereas, property in Poland has not decreased by that amount in the same period.

So if German share prices fall, so to will Polish apartments prices.

Fall? crash? when? 2011, 2012, 2050? Its a simple questiion, how come you and Milky find it impossible to answer?.
Avalon   
7 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

It's all relative... what would be a wise investment?

German stocks or hundreds of other things I would choose before Polish property.

What a difference 10 days have made, only down 10%. Your predictions are as good as Milky's

You see!!!

Silence, thats all you get from these pratts. They slam down Poland and ignore the economies of the rest of the world. Your property today is worth exactly what you think, or whatever somebody will pay. You do not have to sell if you do not want too. Watch the worlds shares turn into a lottery. Your home/property, exists and will still be there in 10 years time. So, you have a mortgage in CHF and the repayments are hurting. Its going to hurt a lot more if you rent and there is no money coming in!! at least your landlord will look for the next tenant, whereas the bank will only be looking at the bottom figure. Better something than nothing.

The socialist world is a fantasy. Everybody is equal but in reality it can never work this way. The rich have no problem with the poor working hard and catching up. What they object to is the poor wanting to share the wealth without even trying.

People like Milky, CMS, Peterweg etc; will always try and run down Poland. Its not the Poland they want, they wish for a communist system, whereby, they are given everything at the expense of others. Read their posts, if you disagree with them you are called a "Thatcherite" or a neo-com liberal. Everyone is wrong except them and the admin on this forum, allows them to libel anyone that disagrees with them, so say, in the cause of "Free speech"

The serious members of this forum have tried to back up their posts with "facts". The admin seem quite happy to allow the "trolls and spammers"to post what they wish.

I have never pretended to know everything about what happens in this world. My experience is limited to nearly 60 years of life and 38 years in the construction industry.

Look at the advice from CMS to Pip (27-07-20110), invest in German stocks instead of Polish property. The stock market has collapsed in the last 10 days. Has your house/apartment lost the same value in that time?. Genuine people are looking for advice/help which is what I thought this forum was about. I have never promoted my own projects on this forum, only tried to advise people who were thinking of moving here. Admin knows that "Polsky, Milky" etc are posts by the same people, they have admitted as much and yet they do "nothing" about this. What is the point of a forum that restricts, common sense and allows flagerent lies?.There is no problem with a sensible debate, but, that is not allowed to happen here.

God bless all the people who wish to settle/re-settle in Poland. If you want advice, look somewhere else. You will not find any sensible information here.
Avalon   
1 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Good point, and I reckon it's far from bottoming out yet.

And the world will end? maybe, sometime, in the future!!!

You are like a duracell battery, you go on, and on and on and on................
Avalon   
1 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

And RENT an apartment until sanity returns.

Care to make a prediction on when that may happen? or maybe I should re-post your past ones from 2009-2010-2011 and while we are still waiting.......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Avalon   
1 Aug 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Peterweg, It was stated 2 years ago that asking prices for properties had dropped by around 10%, so whats new?, everyone knows that there was a correction but 10% does not constitute a crash. Yes, I admitted you can rent, but, if the rent is the same or more than the cost of a mortgage, if you intend to stay in the same place for a long time you might as well have an asset, which, even if you sell at the same price you paid, you have still lived rent free.

Milky, the song is about 40 years old, just like the links and data you provide about property. You will still be singing the same song in 2 years time.
Avalon   
29 Jul 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I don't need to include every commodity they are all required in varying amounts.

No, you are just very selective like Milky.

When its -30 in Poland, I call roof over my head a necessity. We are discussing Poland in Europe, are we?
Avalon   
29 Jul 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Those are commodities you have to consume, property are fixed assets that are optional and discretionary purchases.

So a roof over your head is a discretionary purchase? Whether you rent or buy, you still need it.
I notice you left out petrol, but of course, you still have the option to walk, impracticable for most people, but still an option.

You, a developer, attach commodities (building materials/labour) into a fixed asset.

At least what I build will actually, phisically, exist and is a "tangible asset", unlike shares and CDS's which are just bits of paper. You cannot live in a pile of paper.
Avalon   
28 Jul 2011
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

In any case you sell at a price that someone is willing to pay and the market decides what that is.

You mean like, petrol, water, gas, electricity? My, you are privaliged if you can pay what you want for these. I bow down to a superior being,

or maybe you just don't think to clearly before you write.