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Posts by peterweg  

Joined: 16 Feb 2007 / Male ♂
Last Post: 19 Jun 2020
Threads: Total: 37 / In This Archive: 22
Posts: Total: 2305 / In This Archive: 1651
From: London, Battersea, Krakow.
Speaks Polish?: no
Interests: Motorbikes, Skiing

Displayed posts: 1673 / page 16 of 56
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peterweg   
12 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

No its a silly report that even the the FT too the Micky out off.

Doesn't detract from the fact that a very large part of the Polish households have large debt free assets to their name and an average savings of around 120K zloty

Have you got a link to show that 95% of Poles don't have a mortgage?

Already posted in this thread, and you know it.
peterweg   
12 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Here is the source - I ****** myself laughing at the KPMG report.

Don't try to imply that report has anything to do with the level of Poles savings.

You are posting something completely off topic.
peterweg   
12 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

As I said, I want to learn from you so please explain how a person who bought a house/apartment for (say) 200,000 zloty in 2004 and still resides at the same address is facing a cataclysm of the first order? Are you saying that their house/apartment is now worth 80,000 zloty?

Not at all. 95% of house holders do not have a mortgage and either own out right or live in cheap accommodation. The mortgage holders are - most probably - recent buyers who are stuffed. Foreign currency mortgage holders are possible even worse off.

Yes, which means a gigantic bubble.

No necessary so, it depends on inflation (which has been very high) and the prices to start with (which were low). Add to the mix the small numbers of mortgage holders who are exposed does not guarantee a big crash or indicate a bubble.

What is far more important is afford-ability (bad, prices are too high), the unemployment/confidence situation (going bad) in Poland and credit availability (very bad, Western banks are removing capital; to comply with stricter banking laws)

lol,, ahahahahahaha what do you think they bought them with ?Holy Communion money? Pulling at straws man.

We have already gone over this. Poles have very high saving as a percent of income.

The relevance of the 3rd question is with reference to your statement :-

But how important will borrowed money be to the future expected rise in prices? I'd say very little as banks are caping lending at low levels compared to prices. The sort of people who could afford big mortgages in the past are probably over strained - the people with the potential borrowing ability to cause future price rises.
peterweg   
12 Dec 2012
News / How much Poland's economy grew up since 1989? [32]

google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:POL&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false&q=poland+gdp

Polands economy has grow about 400% since 1989, from less than 100billion to 500billion dollars (2011 dollars)

Why baseless/ do you have any data to the contrary? If not I can call your statements baseless with impunity.

10 seconds with google would show your complete lack of knowledge on the subject.

He didn't ask about GDP! He asked about things that are made and produced in Poland and those are significantly less.

GDP is the sum, total of EVERYTHING made and produced in Poland, GDP=Gross Domestic Product measured in USD.

A 400% increase means Poland produces five times as much than it did in 1989, this is a lot more. Can you count to 5, Ironside or should I explain that?
peterweg   
12 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

If you guys are going to pretend to be some kind of experts on the housing market in Poland surely these should be straight-forward, easy-peasy questions to answer.

If you had read this thread you would have known that these questions have already been asked and answered several times, complete with precise figures and instructions on how to calculate the effect of compound interest. Avalon and pip keep asking the same question and refuses to accept the answer because it doesn't fit their agenda.

I don't care to answer them again, it not going to stop prices falling and not going to change anyones mind about bubbles etc.

Now, read the thread and make a more informed comment.

If anyone can answer those questions it would be useful to know the answers. I'm considering a purchase should I stay here long-term.

Simple, wait until the growth in the economy is increasing again, maybe a year or two. Again, its already explained in this thread, Polands economy will grow over the decade and with it wages and house prices.
peterweg   
11 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

1) What was the percentage price increase (year on year) between 2004 to the peak in 2008.

2) What is the percentage fall in prices since peak of 2008 (you can allow for inflation).

3) How many homes have been repossessed in the past 4 years as a percentage of mortgage holders.

1) Don't know. Pretty high, apparently
2) I will have to dig out the spread sheet again. Maybe over the weekend.
3) Don't know, but whats the relevance?

and while you are at it- give us the definition of a bubble.

Why is that word so significant to you? Prices rose a lot and are now falling a lot. You all argued over the definition, here's the FT's definition lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=asset-bubble

Taking that, in Poland's case it would be where rental income was failed to provide a acceptable yield compare to house prices. What was the yield - on average - in 2008?

here figures for 2012
globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/Rental-Yields

And compared to other countries
globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Poland/rent-yields

So, given that you can get 7% in a bank and holding property in Poland is a reducing value asset, it seems property in Poland is still very over valued if yields are less than 5%

Does it mean then Poland was in a bubble? I have no idea or opinion.
peterweg   
11 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Hang around for another four years.

In real terms milky's 60% is already here. I won't bother explaining the maths again, see my previous posts.

With a probable recession and increasing unemployement there is a lot more price falls to come

but nobody has ever said the prices were not dropping. The issue is that he has been claiming that there is a bubble which is not the same thing as a constant decline.

Yeah, its not a bubble if you refuses to define or accept what a bubble is.

Lets call it a catastrophic collapse in prices.
A bankrupting, fall through the floor.
A disaster for mortgage holders.
A cataclysm of the first order.

But not a bubble... so everything is fine.

this man sounds about as reliable

REAS seem the most reliable source around.

media.reas.pl/en/pr/225325/residential-market-in-poland-in-q3-2012?changeLocale=EN

got a better source?
peterweg   
7 Dec 2012
UK, Ireland / How long will Poles use communism and ww2 as an excuse to move to the UK? [55]

Police Central e-crime Unit

Stop trying to confuse, thats for

Computer intrusion
- Distribution of malicious code
- Denial of service attack
- Internet-enabled fraud

Racism is far easier to prove.

He would be so f*cked:D lol:D

Yup. He's happy post here with his name and address and an admission of guilt, all it needs is a complaint.
peterweg   
7 Dec 2012
UK, Ireland / How long will Poles use communism and ww2 as an excuse to move to the UK? [55]

I am surprised that PF allows this guy to post his racist views on this forum. Until this forum has some better moderation,

Why not report him to Police ? Here's the procedure. Should be straight forward, the FBI, ISP and PF will give his identity straight up.

report-it.org.uk/racist_or_religious_hate_crime1

If anyone would like it add to a report, PM me. The more complaints we can get the heavier the sentence.

Local law applies, if you are a resident of any other country besides the UK, check you local laws against racism and make a complaint. Polish authorities are very happy to apply for extradition, so feel free to complain in Poland.
peterweg   
6 Dec 2012
News / Poland blocks any action on climate change [569]

There are no serious doubts about man-made climate change. It's effects are measurable and progressive.

And thats coming from an Oilman,

There is discussion on whether Climate change is happening, its between the educated people and scientists against the journalists, politicians and trolls.

There is no scientific evidence that CO2 is not causing a rise in earth's temperature.

None.

There is no science that says global warming is not happening
peterweg   
30 Nov 2012
Travel / Modlin airport in Poland - closed again! [28]

It can do - ILS cat. IIIb allows no decision height and as little as 50m visibility

As I said, visibility at Krakow was less than 50m.

Krakow-Balice airport will have a second category of ILS
International Airport Krakow-Balice is the first regional airport in the country, which will have Category II ILS equipment. This will allow aircraft landings in bad weather conditions.

MPL Krakow Balice President John Pamula told the press that the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA) is confirmed and that the operating system in the Cracow port landing aids Visibility ILS (Instrument Landing System) complies with category II.

Cat 2 needs 350 meters.
peterweg   
25 Nov 2012
Travel / Modlin airport in Poland - closed again! [28]

Krakow was shut again yesterday by Fog, as it was several days last week. Visibility was less than 50m.

I don't think an ILS will help with that. Frankfurt was also closed, I think.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

That doesn't diminish the crime in the Katyn forest, but it puts his behaviour into perspective.

Indeed and unknown millions were killed in the Holodomor. Stalin is estimated to have killed more than Hitler, but as I said, its not a scoring match.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

I think that saying the deaths of 22 thousand is the same as the deaths of six million is design to minimise and marginalise the deaths of six million.

Its not 22 thousand, those were a specific group who were murdered as part of a larger genocide numbering around a million. You are ignoring the fact that it was genocide, a planned attempt by Stalin to solve the Polish problem.

I ask no more than you agree that genocide against any group is not something to dismissed as Jon did. Its not a football match where the highest score wins and losers don't count.

Genocide against Jews, Poles and Armenians were a crimes against humanity.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

So to you 22,000 (from a population of 35 million) is on the same level as six million (from a population of 8.5 million). You're nearly as good at maths as you are at telling the truth.

22k was one part of the total deaths of up to 1million.

Do you think that chopping down 6million into little 22K chunks of death would make ok?

You think one dead person is ok, but Six million is not?

Are not every one of those six million, individuals who are equal victims?

What a bizarre thing to say - the only explanations can be either ignorance or trolling. Or both.

Still waiting for that apology.

Why should I apologies to someone who thinks anything less that a million dead people is... forgettable?

Your attitude is disgusting.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

Yes, but only if one considers Jews to be proper humans: it seems that Peter does not.

Stop lying and trying to put word in my mouth, Liar.

The issue is that Jon, apparently, does not consider the death of Poles on the same level as the death of Jews.

Where did I say I say Jews are not proper Humans?. I didn't, I said genocide is genocide, no matter if it was the Nazi's or your Soviet buddies, Mr Liar.

The Katyn murders were part of the Soviet genocide of up to a million Poles at the start of the war, before the Holocaust against the Jews truly started.

The death of millions of people due genocide and ethnic cleansing is tragedy, not a statistic (to twist Stalins words)

Jon apparently thinks a few tens of thousands or a hundred thousand or a million deaths is not important compared to his genocide, unless it below 6million its doesn't count.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

Do you mean explaining himself or his comments?

Explaining his comments. I've read it again and it still seems he's saying that the Holocaust and Soviet genocide crimes are somehow 'different'.

Over to you Jon, explain what you mean or I'll take it as that.
peterweg   
23 Nov 2012
History / Memos show US hushed up Soviet crime against Poland [97]

Perhaps you should reflect on the difference, not only between the two events

What a vile repulsive thing to say.

A million dead Poles killed in Soviet concentration camps are 'different' from the millions killed in German concentration camps??

Please explain how one genocide is a 'difference worthy of reflection' while the other genocide requires us to 'move forward' from?

Who were unworthy victims in, your sick eyes, jews? Poles? other nationalities?

Please feel free to enlighten us
peterweg   
22 Nov 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I don't think the Euro can survive in the long run without proper financial oversight and rules in place.

Its managed to survive 1/3 of its life in total crisis. I wouldn't be surprised if it carried on for a very long time.