Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

You sound just like the American preacher who predicted the "end of the world" would happen yesterday. The second time this year.
The idea of making a prediction is to set a time for it to happen, which, is what Milky has been trying to do for the past three years.

By forcasting a fall in property prices of 20% over the next year he is actually, still 20% down on what he predicted three years ago (50%), so, things must be improving.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

Something else I can ignore then.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

A very good suggestion but they will not do this until its absolutely necessary.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]


Milky would like to know why the developers are still building if the prices are going to fall by 50%?

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]


Because pip, by the law of averages, one day they might be right. Just like people who buy lottery tickets, somebody has to win.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

[quote=LwowskaKrakow

Bubble in Spain, Bubble in Florida,Bubble in China, Bubble in Ireland, and now Bubble in Poland.

If thousands of newly built flats are sitting empty in Poland the bubble will burst in less than 2 years[/quote]

And this is your quote from July, 2008

"So now we have this bubble , normal correction but if the Polish Government continues to attract speculation it will be worse"

Is this a 3 year bubble now or will it be a 5 year bubble in 2 years time?

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]

If not longer.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]


Exactly, someone that actually does this. Not someone who guesses, makes stupid predictions and who has no knowledge of the property market.

As regards the so say lack of demand for housing, I have my own theory. Until the banks sort out their liquidity problems and what percentage of capitol they are supposed to keep in reserve then any major lending will be put on hold. The banks feel safer lending small sums of 3,000PLN to 100 individuals than 300,000 to one person for a mortgage. Why settle for 7-8% interest when you can charge 12-19% for a short term loan that will not be on the books for 30 years. Its no different than the banks in the UK that are refusing to lend to small businesses, yet are pushing personal loans and credit cards.

Once the fate of the "Euro" is sorted, out one way or the other, life and trade will go on, it might take a while but the demand will return.

Real Estate / Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities [89]


Another prediction? Not a very good track record so far.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


Neither has the 50-60% fall in prices that Milky has predicted for 3 years.

I am just being ironic.

Real Estate / Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49% [285]


This is rthe last sentence of the artical to which you refer:-

"It is expected that this summer (or even by late autumn), the government will pass a new act granting families financial support for buying a house."

That is really going to kill off the housing market.

Life / Looking to immigrate to Europe. How is life in Poland? [116]


I had my two sisters visiting for a week. Coffee in a cafe on the Rynek in Tarnow is 5 złoty, 2 course set meal (plat de jour)in a restaurant with waiter service just off the Rynek

was 17 złoty per person. Warsaw sounds expensive.

Life / Where to buy a plasma TV as a gift for someone in Poland? [9]

Bought a TV and Home cinema system from "Media-expert" in February of this year. Had a problem with the DVD player, took it back and it was repaired and delivered to my home within 7 days. I was happy with the service.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

The figures you have quoted over the past 3 years would be even less than cost. Have you wondered why nobody takes your posts seriously?

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

No, I am saying that it should be around 4 to 6,000PLN if you get a builder in to do it. This should include internal walls, plastering, 2 coat emulsion to walls, stairs, external paths, driveway, fencing, front boundry wall, gate access and connection to media. Depending on what materials are used and would include a builders profit. It would exclude, internal doors, flooring, tiling, sanitry ware, kitchen unit and worktops. When estimating, you cannot expect the builder to know if the client wants a 5,000 or a 20,000PLN kitchen and usually, the client nearly always changes their mind when the finishes are to be installed.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

I said 4-5-6000PLN m2 depending on materials used. What is so difficult to understand? If you DIY then is obviously going to be cheaper. Do you expect a builder/developer to do it for cost? You are as bad as Milky!!!!

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

I will refer you to WB's post #5, 3rd Jan. How much does it cost to build per m2 in Poland.
"Price wise you get what you pay for, i listed 2500 - 3000 as average, if you want marble flooring though out or laminate, sheet metal roof panels or traditional clay tiles, pretty endless really."

I agree with this. Teflcat had a cost of 2,000PLN m2 by doing it himself over a period of 6 years. Most people are not prepared to do this.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


Would you like to give some examples?

This is what I actually said,


I also qualified it by stating that it depended on the materials you used.

Stick to the IT, you may know something about that.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


Actually, the architect was instructed in the November and all buildng permissions were obtained to allow us to start at the beginning of the following April.

The problems occured over the next year with having to get an electricity pole moved to keep the wires 6 mtrs from the building. According to the electricity company we had to pay for a new concrete pole either side of the one to be moved. This involved getting the written permission of everyone whose land the wires passed over. Tracking down the owners and getting the paperwork signed was a nightmare. The cost was around 30,000 PLN.

On a similar project in the UK, I had to get a lampost moved from one side off the street to the other. It was done within two weeks of asking permission and the cost was the equvilant of 4,500 PLN.

There is no stormwater system in the area I built, all the houses run the rainwater pipes under their front gardens and into a ditch. Common sense was for me to do the same. Not according to the local council. I had to get an envoiromental report at a cost of 2000 PLN to show that the rain that fell on the neighbouring fields was exactly the same as the rainwater I piped into the ditch, decision time, three months. Other people have built new houses since and none have been asked to supply this certificate.

Nobody at any stage of the project, warns you that these things are required, you just have to find out as you proceed. There is always, always one more stamp you need and a repeat viewing of the original document after its been filed away or its at the notaries office.

Like you, I do not believe in bribing people.


I hope so as well but I would not hold my breath waiting.

News / Poland Parliament elections in October 2011 [944]


I too read this many years ago. According to posters like Milky etc, there is no need for these flats as there is a huge surplus of apartments in Poland?. It seems silly to make a promise which will never be fulfilled.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


The only rerason I mentioned "a house" was the fact it was obvious you have never built commercially. I am not making bold claims, the type of construction and the price of the land have a huge influence on the cost per m2 as does the access and location.You see a finished building and you try to equate the price by judging it against others. The developer may have a lot more costs than he expects, even before he starts on site.

I wrote this 18 months ago and it still applies:

So when you read what Mark Biernat (Polsky, etc, etc, etc or whatever name he decides to use on the day) posts on these property threads, you know he is talking out of his ass.

"That's again big time BS. We examplined all costs into building,
and total cost NEVER surpassed 1000 PLN/sq.m. built".

I would want that just for the paperwork.

Its the "hidden" extras that you cannot allow for, even with a contingency sum.

So you worked in IT, that explains a lot.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


In construction?

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


You honestly think that its just about labour and materials? Have you any idea of what goes into the planning, programming or a schedule of works or perhaps you think that you just buy some land and a DIY book.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]

Try making a list of the preparation needed to build a house. Give us all a laugh. Its easy to mock someone else. If you have ever completed a project from start to finish, share your knowledge with us.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


And you knownothingabout construction.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


Why? Is it the same as in Poland?


I did not include the price of the land, nor the architects fees, time involved in planning/surveys, nor the cost of connection to the services, interest paid or lost on the money used or the cost of running the company, staff, accountant etc. Just building costs for non-luxury flats, depending on what materials you choose to use.


You answered your own statement.

"The fact is that 60-70 sqm apartments are all people can afford at the current prices."

Thats if they can get the banks to give them a mortgage.

Law / How deep is the Gloom in the Poland's Economy [84]


You only hear what you want to hear. Same as Milky, you live in a dream world. There is a minimum price for the purchase of land and the construction of a building. You seem to think that developers will drop their price to suit your circumstances. Its not going to happen. If it costs 4-5-6000 PLN m2 to build, why do you think they will sell it to you for 2,000? . Look at the property where you live now, are you williing to sell below what you believe to be market value. I can understand why people like Milky want it to be this price, we all do!!!!

Its not going to happen, unless, its a "distressed" sale and you pick it up at auction. Have you seen this happening in Poland?, no, so why do you listen/read this bo**ocks

WB mentioned a place that was 1500PLN m2, great, no problem. The only thing is, that the property is 240m2, which, means a mortgage of around 360,000 PLN if you put a 20% down. The fact that the banks do not want to lend anything over 200,000 PLN is immaterial.

The thing that most Polish people want is a house/flat/apartment, between, 60-70m2 with 2 bedrooms. The cost has to be around 200-250,000. Unless the land can be bought very cheaply, this is not going to happen., especially in the big cities.

Look at "Teflcat", he states 210,000 PLN for a 120m2 house, excluding the price of the land. It took him six years to build, no holidays, no fun, no new clothes etc. I admire him, but I , along with others, do not have the time or inclination to do this,

The days of spending 20 years to build you dream house are over. It takes two wages just to live. 1500 PLN rent against a 1800 PLN mortgae is just not feasable anymore. Maybe, if you are used to paying this, single, no family, free to move around. Thats not the case with most Polish couples who want their privacy and a way of bringing up their own family without interference.

You can use the arguments that the French and the Germans do not takes mortgages. What do they do with their money? What future do they leave their children? Or, do they use their money to invest in shares to bring down other countries, look at the financial crises and see where the debts are owed.

Some people are advocating buying farmland. It seems that they believe currency will be worthless. Lets suppose that this is true. If your landlord need to sell his property to buy a loaf of bread, where does that leave you?

So many rumours and predictions. The same economists that tell you the world is ending, could not predict the finacial crises in 2008.
Greece is going to default. How many months have we been hearing this?
Why do we have to keep hearing this every day? They are now saying that the banks have to be re-capitalised and that the money is to come from the taxpayerers, why?. What about the people who do not even have bank accounts?

Fear, as long as you live in fear, you will be compliant, to whatever your own or the EU dictates. I don't give a damn if Egypt, Yemen, Lybia or any other Arab countries overthrow their dictatorships. I only care about my Polish family and my my Polish friends. There is no pride in fighting for an unjust cause. We should be proud of our soldiers but distainful of our corrupt politicians.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Its always destined to go off topic when the examples you use are usually either UK, Irish or American.

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

They should have waited for another 3 years. They would have got them for half the price. (If what Milky predicts is true)

Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]


No. My rant the other day was about dealing with idiots/stupidity and how the system is not changing.
From you, I have learnt to expect it.