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Poland's population growth problem [44]
Poland never had a population problem.
This is "wrong". Poland, Ukraine, Russia, Estonia are among the worst hit with a very serious population problem.
Some references:
Table:1 Population Decline in Percent by Country (from various sources)
Poland Poland 2009 38,482,919 0.047 declining births
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline (and those for whom emigration was a major reason, that reason is written. For Poland it is not the only reason).
Poland's population will decrease from 38.5 million to 32 million by 2050, or by 16.9 percent. Hungary's population will decline by 18.2 percent and the Czech Republic's by 17.3 percent over the next 4 1/2 decades. In fact, all other Eastern European countries except Albania will have declining population levels.
Source: boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2006/07/16/population _decline/
The forecast results show that the Polish population will constantly decline during the next decades and Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. There is a probability of 50 % that in 2050 the population will number between 27 and 35 millions compared to 38.2 in 2004 and that there will be at least 63 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64.
Source: demographic-research.org/volumes/vol17/11/ (although it says of a 50% probability for the particular number as percentages. It is certain that there will be a decline, however the uncertainty is only in the percentage and nothing else).
The Central Statistics Office said if current trends of declining birthrate and increasing emigration continue, there will be 2.2 million fewer people in the country in 2035 and every worker will have to support two retirees as well as their own families, the Warsaw Business Journal reported Thursday.
Source: upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2010/04/01/Poland-concerned-about-population-decline/UPI-24881270141918/#ixzz1DYJF8bKM
convex
Personally I would like to agree with you and say that "we are OK!". But then, I fear that would be worse for us as ignoring the ground realities is never a good option. However, if you wish to refute, I will not press my case. Its not a happy case anyways, and more than you I would like it all to have been false. But alas, its not the case.
I had a professor in the University of Lodz, who have considerable experience in this field. According to him the statistics shown are not true in the sense that the population decline is much more severe. This statistics is not accurate, and very conservative. The real scenario is worse. The more compelling part is that it is not supposed to carry on with the present trend. As per the increasing westernization (or rather a concept of westernization, which is not always true westernization even) of the society, the birthrate is supposed to fall sharper, even with the government incentives in place. This will cause in a growing number of old aged citizens, costing the government, unless we have other plans. The success of the incentive scheme is not creating magic, but perhaps helping to some extent - which is not enough. There are other factors to this trend which are not entirely economical, but other environmental (external and internal) factors contribute to it greatly.
By the way, by 2050, other than the populations of western Europe (which is stable due to immigration into it), the truly increasing ethnic European population will be that of Albania only. It is estimated that by 2050 they will rise as not only growing, but by that time their growth momentum will increase 10 folds.
Thanks ... I wish things would change by the time 2050 is around for Poland. But ... for the time being, we are yet to find that magic formula.
