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Posts by Avalon  

Joined: 11 Sep 2007 / Male ♂
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Last Post: 6 Dec 2015
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Avalon   
10 Jun 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Imagine that the price per m2 5 years ago for a penthouse in a certain part of the city was 7.500zl.

Can you provide any factual examples of this?. I find it hard to believe that 2 years ago ( the peak being 2007), prices increased. If anything, there would have been a correction and prices would have dropped, especially if the properties were built in 2005 and are still unsold. If you knew anything about property in Poland, you would know that.

Ireland, Spain, UK, US, Dubai are experiencing property bubbles, France and the Netherlands are also, supposedly overheated. Can you show me one recent artical that confirms that this is happening in Poland?

My idea when I decided to write here was to interchange some useful information which may help us to get a good deal, and not to waste my time answering nonsense comments.

The only comments you want are the ones that agree with you.
Avalon   
9 Jun 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

what I've seen since I started to visit the sales offices is that prices are falling down and in my opinion, the fall will remain for quite a long time.

In my own opinion, developers are still trying to sell as high as during the bubble.

1) There is no "bubble".
2) Either the price is going down or the developers are asking the same price.

Are you capable of writing without contradicting yourself?
Perhaps you should leave buying a property until you are more decisive.
Avalon   
6 Jun 2012
Life / Which services is Poland still waiting for? [218]

I never needed the bug screens when I lived in the town but I could not do without them now I have moved near to the lakes. First thing I had fitted but it is surprising that none of my Polish neighbours seem to have them. They were not expensive, the company came and measured up, a week later they fitted them, somewhere around the region of 50 złoty per window.

Only problem is the patio doors, I have a Labrador who would walk right through a mesh net so I have a beaded fly-screen which seems to keep most of the mozzi's out, that and a can of "Raid".
Avalon   
6 Jun 2012
Life / Internet in Aleksandrow Lodzki - buying terms? [5]

We would be willing to sign a contract if we know that it works.

And if it does not work, you do not pay. The consumer act states that all products and services must be "fit for purpose", otherwise, the contract is void.

I had this problem with Era, they showed me on the computer in the store that I had coverage (2 mb)in my area, it was a complete lie. It was so slow that it took 9 hours to send an e-mail. Although I had signed a 24 month. contract, they had to cancel it
Avalon   
2 Jun 2012
Life / A new Poland's war - the poor vs the rich [81]

I repeat, heats pumps and ground energy my ass....

I looked into this some years ago WB. The cost for heat pumps and ground pipes for a building is prohibitive. Its ok for govenment buildings (they can boast and say they are energy efficient) as they are using the taxpayers money and cost is immaterial.

They are drilling locally, a geothermal borehole (125mm) to a depth of 3000 mtrs approx. The mayor got a grant of some 18 million złoty towards it and the rumour is that there is going to be a spa and possibly, they will be able to heat the houses in the vicinity. Nice if it happens.
Avalon   
27 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

Your report is from 2004. It is not bad, but simply too old - in result - outdated.

Not my report, a report !!!. Have any of the recommendations been put into effect? 2004-2012, not a lot has been achieved.

Newest reports talk about 200.000 flats which will have to be removed from the market in the nearest future. However, those flats aren`t in communist blocks which still hold strong.

That should improve the situation.
Avalon   
26 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

According to it, first blocks should have collapsed a few years ago.

Where did I say collapse? You are the person that mentioned collapse, again you make things up, I said a life expectancy. To make it simple for you, it means usefulness.

I said it already: communist blocks will also be gradually demolished because people will find better places to live.

I agree, but as you pointed out,

Those blocks, hundred thousands of them all over Poland, are ugly and primitive, yet they are all standing.

The government will need to begin very soon.

Again: spare me those incantations.

Simple enough, you stick to your topics which I am not interested in and I will comment on what I know, not guesswork.
Avalon   
26 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

I am not surprised that you chose to attack everything I say on a personal level. If you bothered to read my posts properly, you might understand that I build and develop as a hobby. I retired 8 years ago. My interest in construction follows along the lines of wishing to improve the choice and quality of the housing which is provided in Poland, especially, affordable housing. I dislike sink estates and the social problems that go with them, I dislike seeing young families having to live in sub-standard accommodation because the successive Polish governments do not set funds aside to improve their living conditions.

My own projects provide work and homes for local people. I concentrate on small developments with plenty of space and privacy. I would never build anything that I would not live in myself. Because I take an interest in construction do not assume that its all about money, I get a huge amount of pleasure in constructing a good building where the clients are happy to live. Building is an ever learning process with new regulations, materials and technologies appearing all the time, which, I have to keep up to date with.

You may think that the communist blocks are part of the "quaintness" of what Poland is about, that is your perogotive, I personally would rather try and improve and help with the skills I have. If you do not have anything to add except your ignorance, feel free not to comment.
Avalon   
25 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

If you don't pay, you lose the property.

I do not think you understand what I am explaining. In the large communist blocks, some of the occupants have been given the right to buy by the state. Others do not want to buy and have subsidised rents. The government cannot increase the rents to the extent of covering the rising costs of maintenance or major repairs. What the government would ideally like is for everyone to buy, they could then wash their hands of any repair works.

4. Since the beginning of Polish transformation, both the experts and the politicians have maintained that the residential construction should be an engine of the economy. The problem is, this engine has not been started yet. Mere 0,1% of the gross national product is allocated to subsidies for the construction sector - the lowest number since the World War II. The diagram shows since 10 years the direct budgetary expenses for the housing sector have been decreasing constantly. Only since two years they have been showing a minimal upward tendency In the western countries a thesis has been accepted, that the investment of public funds in housing constitutes a long-term policy, profitable to the society and to the country. In Poland, after 1989 the opposite process has started: the country has commenced to withdraw from active construction policy.

So, as the artical suggests, the amount of money allocated to social housing has decreased and with the current budget cuts, this will get worse and exasperate the problem.

I am not suggesting that there will be a wide-scale collapse of buildings. I only question what is going to happen to the people when these apartment blocks become unfit for human habitation and are condemned. Where are these people going to be housed? It would only take one disaster to call into question the safety of all high-rise blocks constructed in a similar way and would be a major headache for the Polish government.

This may also be an issue in London, if you read about the Stockwell roof collapse. Maybe a one off, or maybe a sign of the future.

I did read about this. Not quite the same thing, these were brick built "gable" end walls but it was amazing that 5 should all give way at the same time. I do not know why this should happen but the speculation is that an extreme change of temperature built up in the lofts and the expanding air forced the weak brickwork walls outwards. I would like to see the structural engineers report as I have never come across this before.
Avalon   
25 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

9. Approximately 3 millions apartments in Poland are owned by the housing cooperatives. It is safe to say, that every third Pole and every second city inhabitant lives in the blocks. The problem therefore is not trivial. The following has been observed in large project housing estates: - high apartment rotation factor, - significant rent arrears: 40 to 70% inhabitants are past due, - high unemployment, higher in such estates than in the city center, The social problems, heretofore typical rather for the inhabitants of communal apartments, tend to occur more often:  uncertain life situation,  isolation to the family circle,  increase of juvenile crime,  marginalization, a feeling of social seclusion,  decreasing participation,  increasing passivity of the inhabitants.

10. The only answer of the government to the issue of the projects so far is the thermal renovation. The insulation of the existing apartments constitutes one of the most important goals of the housing policy . The thermal modernization act is being broadly implemented in practice. Due to its transparent procedures and public funding it allows to achieve the significant savings in the exploitation of buildings. The development of technical threads, however, is not enough to change the direction of transformations and remedy the situation. Even the renovated estates, thermally isolated buildings and repainted elevations cannot hold the residents who aspire to a higher quality life and work standards. Easily accessible resources and the general public support for thermal modernization have resulted in a series of realizations that are questionable in the least. The type and value of the elevation notwithstanding, the buildings are covered with Styrofoam and plaster on a massive scale.

Lack of money for efficient remedial works, therefore, kicking the can down the road.

It was not until 6 people were killed in the UK (Ronan Point disaster) that action was taken to demolish these death-traps.

I couldn't understand this though.

The privatisation of single dwelling units and the subsequent situation of multiple-ownership in one
building constitutes a major obstacle for the effective management and the necessary rehabilitation of
the housing stock.

It simply means that there is a mixture of private and state ownership, some can pay, others cannot or won't. Decisions do not get made, nothing gets done.
Avalon   
25 May 2012
News / Poland's Economy Is Booming! The EU's Success Story? [711]

So now he's switched to Ad hominem attacks, the last stand of the desperate.

You are some hypocrite, because I questioned your statement about the communist blocks being around for 200 years, you came out with this:-

"So you build tour apartments to fall down after a couple of years eh?

I'll avoid anything you have built."

When it comes to personal attacks, you are not so innocent.
Avalon   
25 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

iwoev.org/fileadmin/Dokumente/Downloads/Publikationen/Housing_Market_PL_Short_Report_Schmigo.pdf

Although this report was issued in 2004, you will note that the recommendation is for 700,000 units to be "replaced" over a period of 5-10 years. Have you seen any indication of this happening? I can show you many examples of these communist, concrete slab constructions with temporary repairs to spalling concrete and with large cracks to external walls which have been filled in with waterproof mastic. Blocks have been clad with sheet metal to stop further water ingress. Most stupidly of all, blocks have been insulted and rendered to give a nice outside appearance without the concrete cancer being treated, this will only extend the life of the building by a few more years.

Same thing happened in the UK and they are still demolishing these types of buildings now.

I may sound ridiculous, but at least I know what I am talking about.
Avalon   
24 May 2012
Life / Let`s compare prices of services and products in Poland [359]

So you build tour apartments to fall down after a couple of years eh?

Is that the best retort you can come up with?

What I build is not being discussed. I believe the post was referring to the post war, communist era, apartment blocks. These were constructed with an expected lifespan of approx. 50 years (that's assuming that they were built to specs) and you think that they will last another 200 years?

Stay off the subject of property, it's not your strong point.
Avalon   
20 May 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Avalon:
Lets say that the 1% fall each month continues, in just under another 8 years, we should be back to 2004 prices.

Inflation target and actual is probably less than that, so the actual date would be 7 or eight years... 2019-2020

I was using Milky's own figures. It makes no difference, the results virtually the same, , so anyone that bought prior to the financial crisis is not going to see negative equity for some time. To get around this problem, Milky, will now predict price falls of 3% a month.

Anyone got the house price falls for yesterday?
Avalon   
20 May 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

So, according to the figures you are providing, prices rose between 2004-2008 to peak at an increase of 109%

Houses in Warsaw have lost 13.63% of the value since the economic crisis began.
true

This still leaves a nett increase of 95% since 2004. (Quite mild considering you were quoting rises of 300%)

That fact that Polish prices have gone down on average 1 % each month this year is also significant,

Lets say that the 1% fall each month continues, in just under another 8 years, we should be back to 2004 prices.

These are your figures Milky, I am sure that you and others will want to make some adjustment for inflation etc, but, at the end of the day, your prediction in 2009 of a 60% crash is not looking any better.

If the Euro collapses and there is a depression or maybe war breaks out across Europe, the crash you predict could still happen.

I personally will just get on with life as normal. The thought of waiting for quarterly housing sales figures for the next 8 years sounds depressing.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

Nothing to do with that.

If you remember they have re-introduced the right to buy with a £75k discount.

What is your problem? I made a comment on a statement that was issued by the then Labour housing minister, John Prescott. He stated that they could build HOUSES for 60,000 pounds (I was wrong in saying 64,000 pounds)

You butted into a conversation and started going on about 70m2 apartments for 40,000 pounds and the right to buy which I never even mentioned.

You seem to go out of your way to get things wrong and then start arguments, FFS, get a life, or at least start learning your subjects. I have forgotten more about property than you will ever know.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

And none were ever built.

Therer you are knowitall, I was wrong by 4,000 pounds, you were wrong by 20,000 pounds, at least my memory is not that bad.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-14410589
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

where you can hear next door cough.

Since 2004, that should be impossible. On the last small block I built, a new regulation came in. On completion of the building (all internal doors on and flooring laid, we had to have a sound test done by an independent Audio Expert who was registered with the council. Cost was 200 pounds per flat. He placed audio meters in the adjacent flats, including above and below, made normal noises at different sound levels in the flat he was testing and then read the meters in the other flats.

We were one of the first companies to pass these tests, the audio engineer told us that other developers had failed and had to carry out extensive additional sound insulation. All flats since 2004 would have to be tested and comply with noise levels, the council will not issue completion certificates without this test being done.

When John Prescott (Labour) said a few years ago that the government were going to build new houses for young couples that were going to cost 64,000 pounds, he was talking out of his ass, you could not build a two bedroom house for that amount of money let alone buy the land. House building in England is expensive, hence the high prices. These people that use to calculation of 3 times salary are stupid, you cannot build for that sort of money unless you can get slaves onto the building sites.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

but don't UK builders tend to just show the regulations have been met in one of the units per development - ie soundproofing and thermals? The rest never get checked to the same or any extent, do they?

The UK building inspectors are not that stupid, they examine the cavity's to make sure that they are clean and the insulation is fixed properly, if they are suspicious that something has been left out, they can make you knock a hole in the wall or floor and God help you if anything is missing or out of place/incorrect size. They can make you knock the whole building down and start again, your name would be recorded and any future project would be scrutinised. I am not saying that there are no fly by night builders.

Isn't it the polystyrene or rockwool that keeps Polish flats thermally insulated?

Its usually 140mm thick Styrofoam sheets fixed to a single skin 225mm thick concrete/terracotta block wall, 75mm thick Styrofoam sheets are installed under the sand/cement floor screed. Rockwall (fibreglass) is now only used in the loft space, usually to a thickness of 250mm.

I've never seen the same level of insulation in UK flats, look at a UK flat and there is no outer "jacket" of insulation. There might be cavity wall insulation but not polystyrene slabs etc, surely?

You will not see this level of insulation on newly built flats in the UK because the weather is not that extreme, more dampness than freezing. Insulation is usually in the cavity but I know that several new projects were going to use the external Styrofoam slabs as it was more cost effective and of course, more efficient. Cavity wall insulation in the UK is usually 1200 X 600mm X 50mm Polystyrene slabs or Rockwall "Batts"., outer skin is either 100mm thick brick or block work, 50mm cavity, insulation is fixed to cavity side of 140mm insulation block (pumice) by clips on the wall ties which hold the inner and outer skin together. The higher the two skins go, cement drops into the cavity and hits the wall ties, this can cause a "bridge" for moisture to travel along so it is essential that the ties are cleaned off " as you go up" before they are unreachable. One serious problem that has now been resolved was that the ties were made from galvanised, steel wire, brickie's had the habit of twisting the ties flat which caused the galvanised coating to crack away from the steel and over the years the moisture got to the steel which resulted in the ties rusting and expanding, made the walls crack and become unstable. There is a fix for this (fairly expensive and time consuming) but its not the end of the world. Nowadays they use stainless steel or plastic ties, so no problem.

At the end of the day, they are going to use the cheapest, most cost effective way to build in whatever country you are in but there has to be regulated standards for safety, nobody wants to see a building collapse, certainly not like you see these Chinese schools do on a regular basis when large amounts of cement/reinforcing bars are left out so the builder can make more profit.

Sorry if this seems like a lecture but its the only way I know how to explain the building process.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

I am guessing.
In the UK, all the flats I go to there are cold once the rads are switched off, probably within minutes.

Planning and building regulations in the UK require good thermal insulation (BTU's). There are minimum standards to be met before building approval will be given. During working progress, an inspector from the local council will inspect the works as they proceed, insulation is one of their priorities. In Poland, the developer has to employ a registered building manager who has to have a "magic stamp" and will agree to anything as long as you pay him. I personally take photographs of every aspect of the works, at least every three days. This gives me a record to show exactly how the project was built and what materials were used and if they were used properly. I also apply regulations from the UK which are not normally used in Poland ie: 1200g polythene membrane underneath the ground floor slab to eliminate any possible rising ground moisture/Radon gas penetration, building blocks up to the underside of the roof (inside the loft) to stop fire travelling through the roof space to adjoining flats or properties, trickle vents to all external windows and doors to stop condensation, etc. People here tell me its not needed but I feel happier knowing its there and safety for me is very important.

I think you will find that your friends flats in the UK are always cold except when it is very hot (about two weeks every year). The constant rain and damp keeps the outside temperatures very low and how often does the UK get -30 temperatures?. The insulation requirements in the UK are much less than Poland. Look at last week 9-15 C in the UK, 30 + C here. My sister is visiting me for a week to get away from the rain. She arrives tomorrow and the forecast for the next week is sunshine every day.

In 2001, it rained in Bristol continuously for a record 126 days, I was so depressed I flew to Barcelona and bought a flat so I could go there at weekends just to be able to see the sun. I hate rain more than any other type of weather.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Real Estate / Thinking of buying an offplan Luxury Property Wroclaw [79]

On our second trip to Poland we found the developer had left the country, taking all the pre-payments with him.

New laws came into force this year to stop anything like this happening again. Even so, a small deposit is only fair if a person wants to reserve a flat in a certain position with a favourable outlook. It is not fair on the developer (who maybe could have sold this flat several times over) to have the client withdraw from buying

when completion is imminent. Some clients who pay a deposit, make changes to the layout as the works proceed, walls not required, boiler re-sited to a different position, doorways moved, plumbing altered for bathrooms and kitchens and doors. This may suit them but not other clients who perhaps would have preferred the original layouts.

A nice couple with two teenage children bought a new flat off me 18 months ago. It was a large flat (120 m2), three large bedrooms, huge lounge, 300.000 PLN, developer standard. In February of this year the buyer contacted me to complain that the flat was very cold this past winter and asked, were the radiators "big enough" for the room sizes. I took the heating installation engineer with me and he showed him the chart with the sizes per room/size of radiators required and that everything was in accordance with the project accepted by the building regulations. This satisfied the client but not me. He had a problem and it was my responsibility. I had the engineer install larger radiators in the rooms where there was a problem, at my cost. (not really a cost to me as I will use these radiators and fittings on another project)

Anyway, the client is happy, I am happy. I had a successful company in the UK and we have a very good reputation. Although I am only "dabbling" here in Poland, I will carry on with the same high standards in my adopted country. Not all builders/developers are the same. People only need to carry out a few simple checks first.

Caveat Emptor seems to be the applicable phrase here.

Totally agree.
Avalon   
8 May 2012
Food / Miracle Whip availability in Poland? [43]

Alma nearby me stocks "Cathedral City" which is also popular in the UK. A mature Cheddar which cost me around 49 Złoty for half a kilo.

bacon doesn't exist.

I get a half kilo of bacon every week at a local butchers in town called "Rolneck". They cut the rashers to the thickness I want, there is only a fine edge of fat on one side and the taste is better than I could get in England. Cost 9 Złoty. Addicted to bacon butties with HP brown sauce.

Sister visiting from the UK tomorrow is bringing me my Summer supply of Heinz salad cream.
Avalon   
4 May 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I do agree with Milky, that the government should not interfere

Where do you think the money for social housing comes from?. By building houses for low income families, the government is responsible for the upkeep of the property. For far less money they can help these families to buy their first property at no cost to the taxpayer as they would be repaid through the mortgage.
Avalon   
4 May 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

If you say so Milky.........yawns!!!!!!

The 4700 zł m2 development I saw advertised - they have not even started building it yet

I have been keeping my eye on two proposed new projects in my local area. Both have been advertised with pictures of artists impressions of what they will look like when completed. Having checked with the court, neither of the developers have applied for planning or building regs. The banks are not lending for spec developments, hence, no building work is taking place and unless the developers can show the banks that they have at least 25% of pre-build orders, I do not think these projects will proceed in the current financial climate.

If this is a general trend throughout Poland, there will be massive unemployment in the construction industry. The large cities will cope as there are many people and companies moving there. The smaller towns will struggle with only minor works and the odd, privately built houses and local authority contracts which may not amount to much if there is a cutback on government spending.

There is still a demand for new build in this area as the housing stock is old. The only solution I can see for the situation to improve is for the banks to look at their lending criteria. Instead of trying to lend out small amounts of money to people at extortionate rates of interest (so say, spreading the risk with little exposure) they are going to have to do a rethink of the long term investments for the sake of the clients and the small business's that add a lot to the Polish economy.

I myself am in the position of having a small project ready to build eight new flats and the only thing holding me back is whether the banks will lend the money to the people who will want to buy them. The inability of the EU leaders to sort out the problems with the Euro have brought nothing but a fear which has lasted for the past two years and still continues. You may ask how this affects Poland when there has been no collapse of the banking system here, well, until the ECB states that the banks have enough money and do not need further recapitalisation, none of the banks want assets on their books, only liquidity.

Austerity or growth, this is the battle that is being fought in Europe at the moment.