Will economic crisis hit Poland?

no recesion yet. polish GDP +0.8% y/y for 1Q 2009

i think Poland will end the year with a growth between -0.5% and +1%.. Banks have not done here the same mistakes than in the US or UK, indebtness per capita or related to GDP is much lower than in the US or UK, and the economy is much less dependent on exports than its neighbours( exports represent 35% of GDP in Poland vs 70% in Czech republic for example). Only real negative is the real estate lending in FX, which could become a problem if the PLN weakens further..

spot on Ukraine...

I suspect the banking sector will be hit in Poland, and credit will be curtailed somewhat. However Poles arent 'generally' loaded with credit or debt so I suspect it will escape the worst of the recession. Perhaps more importantly because there isnt mass media hype and fear in Poland about a credit crisis, people are still spending cash and thus money is circulating which is vital to the economy. Export neighbours and returning immigrants are a worry though, and I see all the recent multinationals moving on to Ukraine within a decade. That and I suspect the euro will be a dissaster for Poland, pushing up costs, inflation etc

depends what your mean.. If you think that profits will be lower in 2009 or 2010 compared to the record years of 2007 & 2008, then yes. If you mean that banks will have to be rescued by the government like in the US or Western Europe then no


You're right


Wrong.. The 10 most important multinationals in Poland are Metro, Arcelor-Mittal, Fiat, J Martins (Biedronka), BP, Makro, VW, Tesco, PTC and Carrefour (source: deloitte Rzeczpospolita Top 500 by 2007 turnover). 60% are distributors (the ones in italics) who cannot delocalize to Ukraine if they want to sell to Poles. It would also be difficult for BP (distribution of fuel in POland) and PTC (Era) to move away. The two who could be at risk are VW and Fiat, but the presence of the latter predates 1990...

that "YET" sounds very realistic

In my opinion in 2010 Polish GDP grovt will be stronger than it is now.

How much is rent in Poland in general?
Are English teaching jobs easy to come by?