Real Estate / Prices of apartments in Krakow are collapsing further down in 2010-2011 [150]

"In Warsaw the price for new apartments fell by 15%, declining more than
secondary market units, as the boom in supply (a record 17,500 units delivered in
2008) outpaced weakening demand. Ober-Haus forecasts that 16,500 new units
will be delivered to Warsaw in 2009 which together with financial crisis may effect
in further price correction"
Source: Peter Gage Morris
Managing Director
Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisors

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

You are a liar. I claim on my CV to be a native of English and speak Polish, unless it is typos, show me, I made, which it could be, so show me, stalker. I can post two links to my online CV that show the opposite of what you say. I am a dual citizen and both Polish and American and speak both languages, but I have an accent in Polish but a native in English.

And you? tell me your life story?

Further why are you a stalker? Why do you not state you real name are you a Coward?

Stick to the topic at hand and stop personal attacks. I noticed you do not use your real name as you are a stalker.

Stick to the topic please.

Life / What Do Poles think of Finns? [50]

I guess most think of Nokia and lump them into one of those countries that are 'up there', peaceful and cold. Of course history is a different story but they were a minor player in the war. I think most have a normal or positive opinion of the Fins.

Food / Eating Healthy in Poland [18]

You can eat what you want. If you focus on root vegetable and green vegetable and fruits then you will be healthy, if you eat fat kielbasa ever day you will be fat. This is true of any national diet.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Talking specifics is good.

Wiślane Ogrody this is the place people in Krakow are now calling "The Bunker". I looked at "The Bunker" and it was empty, even thought the agent tried to tell me you have to buy now or all the apartments are going to be sold.

Yet, I herd the bank is already taking ownership of the bottom floor apartments directly from the real estate agent in the sales office. Maybe I misunderstood as I am not a native Polish speaker but I am pretty sure that they are not selling like hot cakes they will be discounted very steep.

However, after looking at "The Bunker" I have no desire to live there, even for 3000 pln a meter, when my friend finished a house in the countyside 220 meters for 150,000 pln (they did alot of work themselves.) So like many I know I have decided to move to the countryside.

The Bunker units are small concrete units, that are being sold "surowy" that is raw or unfinished. After you buy it you have to finish it, then pay a condo fee.

I think cost will not matter, if the banks take too many apartment's in Krakow as is the case in the USA. They will want to get them off their books. Not at first but with time.

I also think cost claims are inflated. And supply and demand is that determines price, not cost as explained above.

There was a massive investment in Dębniki, these were Luxury apartments. The builder was taking Polish people's money the week he went bankrupt. I do not know when those people will ever get their money back, however, the investment is not done and the people surely can not move it. The bank took it.

Now there are "komar" in Poland. Those are people auctioning off foreclosed investments at below cost.

I personally do not care either way at this point as I am moving either to the countryside or the States, maybe I will stay in Krakow, I guess I do not know. However, as I walk around Krakow I can not believe all the unfinished units that will come to market in the next year.

I guess I hope the price falls for all the Polish people making 2000 pln that can not afford it.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Cost? What is cost? When did cost have anything to do with price? The communist theory of value was based on cost, it failed. An object's worth was a factor of labor cost and productivity.

However, Austrian economics clearly showed that price is determined is subjective, based on supply and demand irrespective of cost. This is why we have something called the diamonds water paradox. Why? Value is subjective. Hayek and Misses explained this clearly. Cost and price are not connected.

If you buy IBM stock for $100. Why would I as a buyer care about your cost? I will pay for it what I subjectively think it is worth. Even if you take a loss. Supply and demand.

You may say, well I will not sell it. Ok so if you really want to talk cost you have to talk economic cost not some builders cost. This is called opportunity cost. There is an implied cost to the holder of holding an unproductive asset. Further, liquidity constraints.

Therefore prices adjust to equilibrium as the capital expansion process can not be complete and aggregate supply exceeds aggregate demand.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

You make many point, I will address the central one:

You say that if there is not sufficient aggregate demand to satiate aggregate supply, then builders will stop or gear down their plans and constructions.

However, Joseph Schumpeter clearly explained this process of boom and bust. -> Real estate( like unemployment) is a lagging economic indicator. The reason is the production process has a relatively long cycle. That is by the time the builder buys the land, gets the permits, breaks ground and finishes the project it is several years. Therefore, because of mis-expectations a bust is created. They can not stop production half way through.

Similarly in times of recovery you see rising unemployment as it takes a while before firms lay off.

However, the stock market is a leading economic indicator because it can adjust to aggregate supply and demand in an instant.

The housing market as long as I have seen it goes though cycles of boom and bust not only because of the production cycle but because it is a highly leveraged investment. Highly leveraged.

This is why the cycles are more dramatic than the capital markets.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Prove it that I change screen names. I do not. You bear false witness.

The issue is not about if you or I personally made money from the real estate boom, it is about where the prices are going. I am happy you are boasting and bragging to others how smart you are by the fortune you made but that is not the issue. I do not like people who brag about such things it is very distasteful and primitive.

The issue is this. They have been dropping for two years almost as they are over valued based on 1) cost 2) income 3) over supply. 4) tight credit

In the USA the trend was has been to leave the city centers as people have cars. Poland people are buying cars and going to the countryside. My friends are building cheap houses in the countryside.

Luxury apartments are nothing more than blocks of flats for fools. I personally think living in a block stinks. I have lived in a block and its awful. I do not care what the price concrete and having 50 or 100 units in a building is no way to live, that is why the trend is to move out of the city.

The population is not increasing fast, maybe even declining in the long term. But supply is increasing.
This is why this is the next Dubai, prices are not at equilibrium and have diverted from long term marginal pricing. Marginal price should equal marginal cost.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

They are afraid of the truth that real estate in Poland is the next Dubai. It is already happening.
Please stop stalking. Stick to the issue at hand.

However, if you guys that are stalking focus on the issue then attacking others I will respect that.

The issue is the Polish market is, and has already been falling. I can take pictures around my town that has been empty for many years. These are new constructions, finished at the top of the boom a few years ago.

In US cities people started to move out of the city centers as most people prefer green country side to raise their family, again my friend build a 220 meter house in the country for 150.000 pln. Why would you pay 700.000 for a small block in the city?

The thing is the people in the Polish Real estate market in my experience have not been straight with me, if they tell me they are selling things for 11k a meter and my friends tell me that people have bought the same units for 4 k. Maybe something is wrong there, but I do not trust people in the RE market in Poland.

I think when it is at 1500 pln a meter it will be normal, maybe 2000 pln. Some houses in the USA are 800 pln a meter, houses in major cities like Miami, LA and Las Vegas.

Real Estate / Prices of apartments in Krakow are collapsing further down in 2010-2011 [150]

Of course real estate will return to a normal price: that is the average salary per month= price per meter. Which is about 2000 pln.

I can buy a house on the beach in Florida for the price of a small concrete flat in Krakow in a block.

Only a fool buys in a real estate bubble.

Food / Where to buy Cheddar in Warsaw? [57]

Biedronka amd Auchens sells cheap and good cheddar. Anyone who pays more than 30 pln is a fool.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

I was at one of the many Real Estate developments in Krakow the other day. They quoted me at 11,000 pln per square meter. However, I work at an accounting firm that knows the real prices and they were offering the same flats in the center for under 7000 as in the newspaper. Further I teach some Real Estate agents that said the same flats are being sold for 4k and change.

So the whole thing about Krakow and Polish real Estate is it is the next Dubai. Everyone knows it. I hope they keep building like crazy. I really do. I do not care. I hope there are blocks of flats on every corner, the ones on my street have been empty for almost 3 years now and no buyers.

I will move to the country side and build a house for about 150,000 pln as one of my friends just did. And its a nice house, rather than live in a block of flats for a million.

Ps Avalon the reason is the admin can see the people posting to this forum have different IP adresses etc,your just a typical angry name calling person who should leave the forum. But do not have the courage of your convictions so will keep on posting. You are just talk and a name caller and bearing false witness.

Krakow is the Dubai of real estate and I think it is very funny.

News / Poles protest US Stalin memorial plan [28]

This is unbelievable.

Life / Are there any good vitamin shops in Warsaw? [9]

If you can not find what you want in Warsaw, try Uk ebay, they ship to Poland no problem and not extra taxes or hassle as its all the EU.

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

SeanBM - As stated someone can login with a name CNN and link to CNN but that does not mean they own CNN. Mbiernat is the only name I use. Stop it.

About real estate, tell me honestly - that you do not live with mommy and daddy. I do not think you have ever owned real estate in your life right?

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

Greg, and everyone reading this. I am not going by the name claritaslux. Someone signed in as guest using the name of my website. I run a large website and I get 1000s of visits a day and all kind of people on it. Many people link to it all over the web.

The person who is using the screen name claritaslux is not me. Not me. I have only use the name mbiernat. It is the only screen name I have ever used here. I use my real name because I have nothing to hide.

For example,,I could have a screen name called CNN and link to CNN but that does not mean I have anything to do with the website CNN.

The person using that name has a right to his or her opinion. It is an interesting post. But I am not posting under that name or any other name but this one. Unless I was drunk and can not remember. But I do not drink. I am only using this screen name. Only this. My friend will set up a screen name called CNN and link to cnn and you guys will say he owns cnn?

About the profit margin. It seems high but on the other hand, there is very high barrier to entry. Economics 101. I mean what do you guys do for work? To start a development firm it takes ''know how'' and capital. No one here including myself can do it that easy.

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

People here attack other people because it makes them feel good. As stated before I only use this screen name and I only have about 100 posts in a year. That is not a spammer. I did not use those other screen names. "Thou shall not bear false witness"

Ok buy the real estate and tell me what you are going to pay. You can live in some 35 meter flat in some block at the end of Krakow and pay 7000 a meter. But that is not what I want. I can live in CA or NV or FL for a fraction of that price and have a nice house in the sun.

I will wait for the speculation to come back to reality.

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

I do not want to get sucked into a forum internet match of wits.

1. No that was not me! It was not me. Again. Not me. I have only use this screen name. The post you referred to was in 2007 and I joined here in 2008. You have nothing better to do than point fingers "Thou shall not bear false witness"

I am sure you are a nice person and all but remember "life is too short to spend online".

About the real estate I live here in Krakow. I am Polish citizen as well as US. I saw flat prices go from 2000 pln per square meter in 2004 to 10000 pln. That increase in price did not come from increase in cost. Price is a supply and demand thing not a cost thing. This has no relation to reality of the average wage rate in the city. Its pure speculation.

I know only rich developers. None I know are poor. I talk to my friends who are accountants and they say developers make the most profit of all their clients.

If you have the courage of your convictions buy some Krakow property at 15000pln a square meter and prove it.
Me I will wait as prices continue to fall.

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

I am mbiernat on here. I posted the thread originally. Somehow someone took the name of claritaslux relating to my website and started to post as a guest. This is a different person. It is not me. Also Tadeusz2007: is not me either. Maybe an admin or something but I can tell you I am only mbiernat. SeanBM you are not Sherlock. I do not know what you are with over 4000 posts in a year, man do you have a job?

And you are wasting people's time if you do not stay on the theme or have something to contribute on the subject of the housing market.

Real Estate / Average profit margin of developers of new apartments in Krakow is minim 600.00% [20]

I live in Krakow and developers want 20 to 30 thousand pln per square meter in the new constructions on the river. I am not joking either. Also 25 thousand pln for new buildings near the park. And they have claimed, at least to me, they are filling those flats. I do not believe it. I walk by the new remonts (remodeling) and real estate developments and all I see are empty apartments. Further it has been this way for at least 2 years.

On my street they are asking 10,000 pln per meter. I could buy a place in the USA for a 1/4 that price. A nice place. So I think it would be a little foolish to buy at those prices.

Real Estate / 15 reasons why the Polish real estate market will crash soon [258]

Basically the arguments are correct. Supply and demand is more powerful than what people "think prices should be". The real estate in Poland is not based on supply and demand right now. It is a bubble. Look at every real estate market in history or just look at the USA and see what happens in a bubble.

Every cynic that says no way prices will fly up forever, gets burned in the bust.
I do not care if its is the stock market or the real estate market, there are booms and bust based on over speculation. So the arguments are correct, real estate is in for a fall.

USA, Canada / How to find a job in the USA [39]

There is always work for people with the right skills. I did a lot of hiring for a company I worked for and in good times and bad times the equation was always the same, did this person have specific skills to do a specific job. If your a generalists, you have to work low paid jobs until you have skills. The USA is a great place right now, in many regions.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

Capitalism is fine, if the uząd (city office) of the city understand that there is a clear division between private property, that can be used for capitalistic development and public parks.

Every city in the USA has strict zoning laws on private land. And the public land which belongs to everyone is used for parks. If the city has no intelligent ideas they should plant trees and a garden, maybe a museum. Not sell booze and cigarettes with the profits going to 'Italian bosses'. If something like this happened in Boston say on the Boston commons or by the river, it would be all over the news and no one would allow it. In Boston they developed the river very nice. Its a famous place, but certainly with no junky, trashy profit developments.

Did anyone ever see Dr. Suess and the Lorax? Your will know what I mean about development and Krakow. facebook/home.php#/group.php?gid=87590490562 is a facebook group that is active to help the Krakow, government not make foolish choices.

Polish Constitution, Article 5:

'The national government shall... safeguard the national heritage and shall ensure the protection of the natural environment

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

I think there is a lot of brides and corruption still in Poland. I do not mind it so much when it comes to things that are not public. I did not know about Plac Bema! Wow.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

Every person I have spoken to face to face says it is a stupid idea to turn a Public park into a nightclub and bar. Krakow is park of Polish history and needs to be protected. Its a total abuse of power.

The Italian bosses will make money selling cigarettes and booze to Polish people on their Park lands and calling it a 'beach'.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

The beach in the 1950s was free. It was free for all to use and it did not sell booze.

The beach will be open for only 8 weeks the other 44 weeks a night club and bar on public land.

So why can not I and everyone else in Krakow 'lease' public land for discos and night clubs like these 'Italian bosses' did? Why can the Italian bosses not lease private land, like everyone else?

Why can the city not think of something better to generate money? Maybe a theme park for kids, this is a night club selling vodka and cigarettes.

No tourists will come to Krakow because we have one more Pub here in Krakow.

But if they built something with imagination like the BioDome or super park for kids, or a Polish history center, ever tourist coming to Poland would visit this, even if it is a wax museum. But a Drink bar! It is a stupid use of public land.

The city has a lot of money, they just use it in the wrong way, and the lowest common denominator of development.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

People in Krakow are very upset about it and there have been protests, and delayed about two years. But money talks.

The Italian 'bosses' and city officials ' worked out some 'deal'.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

Shelly I watch it being built with concrete and foundation. Not a temporary structure. I can send photos.

Steel and concrete and massive machines.

If you think having blocks on historic land and green areas is right you have no vision, this is historic land for future generations and your childrens children not to be wasted on bars, discos and beer drinking that could have been built a few hundred yards down the river on private land.

But the fact is they did not want to pay for it.

History promotes torists not drink bars and night clubs. You have not imagination. Look at my examples in montreal and other cities.

And the idea on public land is horrible, Poland has a lot of corruption in city offices you know that. It does not represent the people fully.

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

I agree with capitalism,however, in Economics 101 there is something called a public goods and something called private goods. Private land can be developed based on market forces.

I am an Economist by the way.

However, public goods are subject to negative externalities. That is they are for the people as a whole. For example, this is why we restrict toxic pollution in the air. It has an affect on everyone.

Even Adam Smith understood this. read the Wealth of Nations .

Shelly's comment was 'the government can do whatever they want with public land'. This is not true. That is a communist mentality. They can not build a casino in the castle and should not build a drink bar on a park right across from the castle with the profits going to Italy.

This is very historic public park land.

This is amazing.

Something intersting is clean the river like in Boston or the Biosphere in Montreal, not a drink and booze bar. This is an insult to the history of Krakow.

Bars and pubs are fine of private land, not historical Polish land. Clear?

News / Polish public property to be destroyed by Italian company to set up a pub. [30]

Shelly what a Communist or Post communistic bloc mentality!

So put up a drink bar right?

It does not belong to the government, it belongs to the people of Poland and heritage.

That comment is a very 'communistic' mentality that it belongs to the government and they can do what they want. Are you connect to the 'night club'?

The pool is temporary but the construction is not, right?