Our Polonia appears to be more patriotic, traditon-bound and staunchly anti-Communist than voters in Poladn itslef.
Plus, they've never had to live under a government with a Kaczynski in charge.
Most of the Napieralski (and JKM) votes were protest votes against Komorowki's gaffe-prone campaign and most of those should go to Komorowski in the next round.
But my biggest fear is the run off. A lot of potential Komorowski voters will be on vacation and the PiS voters won't.
As one talking head on tv said, in the first round (Polish) people vote for lots of different reasons, in the second round they vote against the candidate they like least. I imagine that despite the core popularity of JK he has bigger negatives than BK.
If JK does, somehow win, I expect the Polish public will find out just how little he's changed and regret trusting him (just as they regretted trusting him the first time around).
That isn't to say I completely dislike him. I just think that PiS functions better as an opposition party than a governing one.