This will be the 7th time I have traded USD/PLN this year each time making between 2.5 and 6%.
This is not the reason for this tread. Noone can realy predict the short-term fluctations, but why I started this tread was because:
- Many people from abroad that are moving to Poland would like to buy a apartment.
- They can not, or dont want to have a mortage in polish zloty, and get it in there own currency instead.
When you buy a apartment I guess the average timespan for your investment is at least 3-5 years.
If the prices of apartments are standing still the next four years (adjusted for inflation), but the zloty appreciate 20% towards the euro (my best guess), the buyer of this apartment has made a ok profit if he sell his apartment (in zloty) and pay back his loan (in euro)
I think that the risk that many people from abroad has been facing the last 4-5 years, are now heavy reduced, and I think that if the EURO-area is getting more stable, we can see a stronger zloty.
So in other words: If you as a buyer was on 50/50 to buy a apartment in Poland, and get the mortage in euro, you should be 52/48 (to buy) right now. That gives us more buyers!!!
At least I hope so!
pln vs Euro at 3,8 - 4.0 by the end of the year, and even as far down as 3,6 by next summer!
The quate is from 30.07. Euro/zloty was at 4.31.
Today, at 11.08 the rate is: 4,18.
Thats a appreciation of 3%. I think this is just the beginning. When the markets start to see that the euro-area is done with the worst (for now), the risk-price of keeping zloty will go down, and the pricing of zloty will be connected to fundamentals variables in the economy. My best guess is that we will see the zloty under 4,0 against the euro before the calendar is saying November.
Since I have my mortage noted in Euro, I will be looking at a (paper)return of nearly 150.000pln just from looking at that the recovery goes faster in Spain, Berglusconi is kept away from any official office in Italy, the Greeks start to work again and that the Irish get there hands dirty again!
Nice life to sit at a outdoor serving in lovely Krakow, and drink my beer and think about this!
P.S. Any takers on a bet. Today rate is 4.18, I can go even money at 4.10... at lets say 1.desember! (100 days)