Statistics directly related to prices or potential price movement of real estate in Poland

And with coments.

I am very intrested in statics to back up my own opinions. As I guess everybody can guess I have invested in this market already, so my "objectiv opinions" may be biased. Thats why its so important to use reliable statics and raports when we want to state our predictions.

I therefor start this post, and I hope we can collect all usefull links to good statics about the polish property market.

I start with: stat.gov.pl/gus/5840_906_ENG_HTML.htm

This is a rapport that shows the numbers of finnished dwellings, the number of how many new dwellings getting started to be build and the number of permisions given to start building. New numbers are for the first two months.

The highlights of this rapport is:
- Number of finnished dwellings has increased by 2.8%
- Number of "started to build" dwellings has decreased by 27,3%
- Number of permits granted has decreased by 24,1%

From my Biased point of view this is fragile but stilll a good indicator that the pressure from the suply side is getting softer, less units on the market (in the longrun) and we may see a effect of this in 12-18 months (Less suply)

Oberhaus has updated statistics on prices on polish real estate market, updated every month.


A decrease in "started to build" dwellings and permits to build won't necessary mean anything. If the oversupply in apartments on the market is extremely high, like in Krakow, a decrease, even a significant one will have little effect if the number still is higher than apartments being sold. I can prepare eggs at put the heater on max until it starts boiling. I can reduce the heat to 8 and still it will be boiling. I have to turn the heat to maybe 4-5 to prevent my eggs from being broken or actually remove them from the heat totally to save them.

It takes more than 12-18 months to se an effect if you mean any kind of increase in prices? The situation above will firstly mean that the price decline maybe will be less severe and soften the rapid decrease that is going on now.

I agree. No question that there is a oversupply right now. At least in the pricerange between 7.000 to 10.000 per m2.

When I write 12-18 months I write from my biased point of view (since I already is in the market). These things moves in cycles, and when there is very easy to turn around (nearly on a weekly basis) to start to work, the paperwork (permissions) is something that will take longer time to turn around. The lag in the polish system has always been quit long, and with the new regulationslaw I just assume that it has been even longer.

I am not cheering for a totalstop in supply, but I think a health slowdown, conected to a increassed demand will have a positive effect on stabilizing the market, and we can not have a healty return on our investments if not the market is in some form of equivalence. If this is the fact in 12 - 18 - 24 months I dont know! But that these numbers we are talking about is a step in the right direction (even if they hardly can given a significant value after just 2 months)

Btw: I dont boil my eggs, I fry them and eat them with bacon, and if its a good day I even take a smal Tyskie for breakfast

I agree that it is a step in the direction, a decrease in the supply every year will of course eventually bring the market in equilibrium. My point is that it will take a lot to get there...I normally fry eggs too, and piwo is good for breakfast , butstay away from the vodka!

I am looking for a link to find information about the derivative market.

According to Bloomberg the nine month forward rate agreement for the intrestrate is getting traded at 2,74 atm. Anyone know where to find this statics/numbers? I guess money.pl is a good start, but my polish is not very good and I have no chanse to find this spesifics

(I would like my kapitalcost to go even further down. So for once I am hoping the market have right!)

Nor

P.S. Also nice to get a discussion what this massive cuts in the intrestrate will mean for the prices. From my point of view this is mainly a short-term effect, since the lower Kap-Cost first affect the buyers, but will after a while increase the supply of new condos since the cost for developers will also go down). The second effect will come slower, but I think this "graph" is more sensitive to this changes!

Hi - they have some interesting information on the REAS website - some reports from the final quarter of 2012 to download amongst other things...

Intrestrate from the polish national bank keept at the same level at today meeting.

My analyse of this is that the members are not looking at a recession as a possible outcome and that the "downswing" of the economy is neutralised and under controll.

We will therefor see no more ratecuts atm and hopefully we will get statistics that confirm this the next 3 - 12 months.

Isolated this is good news for people that want the prices of apartments to go up (",

BTW: Yes I am already in the market, and yes I have intrest in a upswing in the prices!