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Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49%


Avalon 4 | 1,068
17 Nov 2011 #181
There is an endless stream of links MR Thatcher, and BTW, I hate the labour Party as much as the Tories. This is a postmodern world MR. You need your own inbuilt bullsh1t detector.

This link is about Poland?, as you are keen to say, "stay on topic"!!!!. As for Labour or Tory, they are all out for themselves, there is no such thing as an "honest" politician. I was against Maggie selling off thew council houses, they would still have been available now for the really needy, and, I do not mean foriegners.

My question is, did they buy at the height of a property bubble?? what year did they buy?

Assuming a 25 year mortgage, 1985-86

pip: I inherited some money. E

Listen to the bitterness!!!, the fact that the bequestor may have worked hard for the money did not enter your mind? I have already provided for my family, have you?

Ah, so you bought at a good time, pipy haha, so you advise people not to do as you did???

According to you there is never a good time, property will always be too expensive unless its the price that you can afford and nobody is prepared to sell that low.

All these links to Canada, America, Ireland, its no wonder you know so little about property in Poland.
Wedle 16 | 496
17 Nov 2011 #182
iShares MSCI Poland Investable Market Index Fund (EPOL): Let's be clear: I'm not saying Poland is going to fall. The emerging Europe nation isn't even part of the eurozone. However, my prognosis of Poland ETFs being guilt by association plays has proven accurate. Earlier this week, Moody's downgraded Polish banks because of Poland's economic ties to Western Europe. Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands are four of Poland's five largest trading partners. That might be enough to stay away from EPOL for now.

Bull case: In the near-term, there might not be a bull case for EWP and EWK, but France could emerge from the crisis relatively unscathed using its economic heft to do so. Poland is still worth a look as a viable Europe rebound play or for the investor looking for emerging markets exposure.

minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/eurozone-debt-crisis-euro-eurozone-crisis/11/17/2011/id/37978
wielki pan 2 | 250
18 Nov 2011 #183
The dream of owning a home is possible- but buying beyond ones means is stupid and dangerous

Not in Poland, I agree though its horses for courses, those flats in real terms should be worth only 120,000 zl, because in other countries it takes somebody on low income to purchase this type of accommodation..Homes/apartments will not fall to such levels in Poland, meaning a fair percentage will never be able to own there own..This seems to be the situated now in many countries where real estate has gone thru the roof...If there is a economic downturn in Poland a taste what might happen may be indicated in countries such as Ireland, Spain, Italy and Greece.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
18 Nov 2011 #184
I'm not saying Poland is going to fall. The emerging Europe nation isn't even part of the eurozone.

An interesting read from the "American" perspective. I especially liked:-

Andrzej Jakubiak, chairman of Poland’s Financial Supervision Authority was surprised by the downgrade.

“I don’t see any justification for this decision given the condition of the Polish banking sector,” Jakubiak has said.

President of the National Bank of Poland, Marek Belka, found Moody’s announcement “surprising”.

However, in an interview with the wall Street Journal on Monday, Belka said that as many of Poland’s bank’s have parents in the eurozone the effect on the finance crisis on Polish lenders is of some concern.

“The real unknown is how the European banking sector will survive this. We cannot forget that most of our banks in Poland are subsidiaries of European banking groups,” he said. “We are looking at that with some concern,” he added.

It seems that the banks that were downgraded are not really "Polish" banks as their headquarters are in eurozone countries. Its no wonder that Moody's downgraded them.

As for France being able to survive the coming storm, well, you are a lot more optomistic than me. Since when have you seen a French president running around between France and Germany like a headless chicken.

Austria, Belgium, and the scandinavian countries are all going to be affected by what eventually happens with the euro and the ratings agencies are looking at these countries closely.I would not take their opinion of Poland too seriously.
milky 13 | 1,657
18 Nov 2011 #185
My links for Canada are directed at PIP and the Irish link(depression/Celtic Tiger) is for you...(sorry for mixing links up)
pip 10 | 1,661
18 Nov 2011 #186
from your link

Economists are, however, sticking with the view the housing market decline won't become as dramatic in Canada as in the United States. But they predict a continued slowdown in sales activity and softer prices.

Resale home prices continued to rise in some areas but the increase were slight. In Toronto, the country's largest market, they edged up by only 0.8%. Larger price increases were mainly in smaller markets, led by Regina and Newfoundland and Labrador.

'This underscores the current shift in the Canadian housing market, as the tone of activity moves slightly closer to a buyer's market,' said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities Inc.

The previous 3 years in summary:

House prices rose 4.06% in 2010 (1.66% inflation-adjusted)
House prices rose 5.24% in 2009 (3.87% inflation-adjusted)
House prices fell 0.57% in 2008 (-1.71% inflation-adjusted).

so what is your point exactly? There is no bubble in Canada either.

just for your information- I inherited a small sum after the death of my Nana. Originally from Liverpool, her and my Grandfather saved money their whole lives and because my Grandfather fought at Dieppe and was a decorated soldier they got benefits.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
18 Nov 2011 #187
However, in an interview with the wall Street Journal on Monday, Belka said that as many of Poland’s bank’s have parents in the eurozone the effect on the finance crisis on Polish lenders is of some concern.

“The real unknown is how the European banking sector will survive this. We cannot forget that most of our banks in Poland are subsidiaries of European banking groups,” he said. “We are looking at that with some concern,” he added.

I forgot to add, that even the Polish Government would not be stupid enough to put money into the smallest Polish Banks, they have shares in NBP so would not be affected by the collapse of the smaller subsidury banks here unless they are gurantor for savers accounts, and I suppose there would be some insurance for this risk.
milky 13 | 1,657
18 Nov 2011 #188
hhahahahahahahahahahaahaahahaahah no bubble anywhere according to you...

Inherited money is inherited money so people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.
pip 10 | 1,661
18 Nov 2011 #189
There is no bubble in Canada because of the difference in our banking regulations. There is no bubble in Poland because there is no recession here.

There is a bubble in US because bankers were selling money to those who couldn't afford to buy it causing the market to spike and drop when the economy went in the toilet. Lowering of prices does not mean bubble.

what are you even talking about?

do yourself a favour and actually read the above link.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
18 Nov 2011 #190
there is no pip

Do you mean that in the same way that there is no polsky, tadeuze2000, lensky, specialpolac, specialp, spamowitzss etc, etc.
Wedle 16 | 496
20 Nov 2011 #191
There is no bubble in Poland because there is no recession here.

Another reason for worry is that the sale of the so-called national champions - big state-owned companies - which had been advertised as a good way to increase revenue, is not likely to bring as much money as hoped.

"This is going to end, there aren't many national champions left," Stanilko said.
Poland's structural reforms and its counter-cyclical fiscal policy have served it well, but the central bank's intervention on Friday showed that even reforms are not enough when it comes to dealing with market forces.

The trouble is, analysts said, the central bank cannot keep baring its teeth every time foreign investors decide they want to reduce exposure to Poland.

"Intervention cannot be repeated without limits. They can do that one, two times a year, maybe more," Stanilko said.
But he added that Poland doesn't face the same risks a more developed country would face if it were attacked by speculators: "we're lucky this market is shallow, you wouldn't earn much on speculation.

cnbc.com/id/44677331/Foreigners_in_Markets_May_Be_Poland_s_ Next_Problem

KBC: Heavy sell-off on CEE bond markets
14.11.2011 12:10 Monday
Last week the nervousness stemming from euro-zone peripheries was visible across Central European bond markets. So far, it has been mainly visible at FX markets of more vulnerable countries (like in Hungary). The pressure on the fixed income markets is something new for many markets.

For instance, the Czech 10Y yield tracked its German counterpart till the beginning of October as Czech bonds were playing a role of safe heaven mirror for a while. Nevertheless the escalation of the crisis in recent weeks led foreign investors to the liquidation of their positions in Czech bonds too. Hence, the spread over the 10Y German bund has widened by more than 80 bps since the mid October. Meanwhile, negative sentiment prevails also in Hungary (+25 bps on 5Y bond this morning) while the only Polish market performs slightly better mainly due to higher liquidity and partly probably thanks to interventions of the state owned BGK

Government intervention costs money, you only support your currency or bonds when you are concerned about your debt.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is likely to reassure financial markets Friday. He will give a speech to parliament outlining what could be an ambitious plan for fiscal consolidation.

Also of interest for Poland-focused investors will be labor market data. That could give more indication of whether the Polish economy is slowing like some economists anticipate or whether it remains surprisingly resilient to the debt problems of its trading partners in the euro zone.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect average wages in Poland to have grown 5.1% on the year in October and employment to have risen 2.5%. Both rates of growth are expected to be lower than those seen in September

POLAND: Poland's central bank is likely to keep its policy rates unchanged for all of 2012 despite a recent rise of inflation, said Andrzej Bratkowski, member of the National Bank of Poland's 10-strong Monetary Policy Council.

It is a very difficult place for PM Tusk, they can't move, if PNB are not increasing interest rates in 2012 they expect a slowdown in the economy to keep inflation in check. If I was a gambling man I would say after the Euphoria of Euro 2012, Q3 2012 the pendulum will swing over to the camp of Milky.

SPIEGEL: Is it conceivable that the EU will cut back on other spending in the future because of the unimaginably expensive bailout funds? Spending such as subsidies and structural assistance, which has also helped Poland in recent years?

Belka: We're worried about that, of course. It would be a violation of the accession agreements. The deal, at the time, was this: We adjust our markets, and you help us in the process. If this were no longer the case, it would be a breach of promise.

spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,794969,00.htm
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Nov 2011 #192
If there is a slowdown in the economy it is certainly not visible. We were out today at Ikea and it was packed. Then we went to a new Swedish store called Jula- jam packed. Last week we were at TK Maxx where there was an hour wait at the cash. (I do actually do more than shop) but we needed to get a few things....anyway, you would never know that there was a slump in the economy- it Warsaw anyway.
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
20 Nov 2011 #193
We adjust our markets, and you help us in the process. If this were no longer the case, it would be a breach of promise.

Very true. Let's go for it I say, they won't send us money, we won't be their servants anymore. Tax the Tescos and all the other foreign business, which doesn't contribute anything usefull here, only transfer profits out of the country and let's concentrate on domestic business. That's much better in the long term than begger like attitude.
Wedle 16 | 496
20 Nov 2011 #194
If there is a slowdown in the economy it is certainly not visible

Pip. it is not about Pre - Christmas shopping, its about unemployment figures and and failed business. Warsaw is a different, 95% is all flash no cash living on Plastic. Further more two of the places you have mentioned are discount stores...
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Nov 2011 #195
Further more two of the places you have mentioned are discount stores...

they aren't discount for the people shopping there.
Wedle 16 | 496
20 Nov 2011 #196
Pip, you conducted an exit interview with all the shoppers to establish this point, or maybe randomly selected 200 clients today from each store to establish an opinion of a cross section of shoppers in both stores. Or it is just your opinion? I guess the latter.

Lidl or Biedronka may not cheap for all the shoppers that enter the stores, although the business model is targeted at the low income end of the market.

Please provide the base for your quantitative analysis.
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Nov 2011 #197
Don't be obtuse, it doesn't take a genius to figure out when people have their carts packed to the max and it is furniture or tools or brand name clothing that it is not necessarily pre christmas shopping. I do realize that Warsaw has a different dynamic than the rest of Poland. But people are still buying.
milky 13 | 1,657
20 Nov 2011 #198
it's still pre-christmas shopping
Grzegorz_ 51 | 6,163
20 Nov 2011 #199
But people are still buying.

Yes they do... Polish economy has been driven by consumption and public investments for the last years... but It can't go on forever... What we need is growing (and I don't mean 2% year to year...) export led by technologically advanced products, greater investemnts in the private sector and serious expansion of Polish owned business, not IKEA, Tesco etc. Unfortuantely I see little chance for a serious improvement in these areas in coming years.
pip 10 | 1,661
20 Nov 2011 #200
totally agree.
milky 13 | 1,657
20 Nov 2011 #201
did you agree with the mass privitisation?
Wedle 16 | 496
20 Nov 2011 #202
Don't be obtuse, it doesn't take a genius to figure out when people have their carts packed to the max and it is furniture or tools or brand name clothing that it is not necessarily pre christmas shopping. I do realize that Warsaw has a different dynamic than the rest of Poland. But people are still buying.

There is always a simple answer:

furniture Preparation for wigilia ( November is a good month in Poland for furniture all those entertaining for Wigilia want to make sure their house is nice for the outlaws)

tools December 24 - presents ( Grandad, uncle, Dad they are practical people)

brand name clothing December 6/24 - presents.

You are completely underestimating what is going on in Poland right now, the World bank, IMF and most of the serious analysts are claiming Poland is slowing down and will do even further next year. We are not talking about Government figures that will be revised 6 months down the line. Debt levels in the public sector are increasing, I am witnessing businesses closing down all the time in Warsaw. I could mention to you a number of big times that have financial troubles here in Warsaw and Poland. Discount stores are doing well only because the dynamics have changed. You have mentioned you own a shop Pip, November, December and January is Eldorado for Retail, they have got to make enough to get them through to Easter.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
21 Nov 2011 #203
it's still pre-christmas shopping

And thats not good for the Polish economy? VAT, tax on profits?, most governments like that!!!
wielki pan 2 | 250
21 Nov 2011 #204
If there is a slowdown in the economy it is certainly not visible

You may want to check the method of payment for items purchased....credit card I suppose!!
pip 10 | 1,661
21 Nov 2011 #205
You have mentioned you own a shop Pip, November, December and January is Eldorado for Retail, they have got to make enough to get them through to Easter.

yes, I own a store. I am a different situation. I offer one of a kind products that are inexpensive but still good quality- I can get away with the prices because I do the work myself. I also have extremely cheap rent and an ideal location. I have been open since Sept. and I have made a profit each month. I am lucky because my husband works in commercial real estate so we knew what we had to do in order to make the business work. We also took into consideration what would happen if I didn't sell anything for a few months and the rent is cheap enough that I can get by without the added stress of losing my business.

You may want to check the method of payment for items purchased....credit card I suppose!!

so what, doesn't mean they don't have the cash. I pay for everything with credit card but the balance is paid off at the end of every month.
Wedle 16 | 496
21 Nov 2011 #206
Success to you, now getting back to the thread, anyone who suggests the market in Poland is NOT slowing down is completely deluding themselves, most people have an interest in talking up the market for their own business interests, in November 2011 looking into 2012, we can be thankful of EU funds and Euro 2012, the market dynamics will change in Q3 2012. I really do hope that Poland gets through the next dip unscathed, the realist in me believes it is time to batten down the hatches.
BRS 2 | 48
21 Nov 2011 #207
Is it just me, or is this thread all over the map?

Poland has been doing well, but all good things come to an end (or at least a slowdown).

If we are talking about apartments, I would have an issue with anyone who says there will not be some good deals in the future - but it will be rare anyone will sell in choice location apartments at severely discounted prices. For the average Pole it is clear waiting for a good opportunity and desparate sellers is the best stategy.

Currently Poland is still ok, there is still investment (welcome back Dominos Pizza and Toys R Us is on the way) - small examples I know. Railway, road and metro construction will continue for years. American company Blout is looking at Poland (as well as a few other countries); this could create a 1000 jobs. There are even plans to move some production from China to Poland (due to quality issues and high cost of transport and rising wages). These investments won't allow the majority of the employees to buy their dream apartments, but the more money circulating , the better for everyone.

When I think of my city in Canada (o the majority of countries in Europe) compared to Poland, I'm definately glad to be here from an economics point of view.
pip 10 | 1,661
21 Nov 2011 #208
--a slowdown more like it. foreign companies are still investing here. the housing market has reached its peak and is now leveling off. Buyers have more options and bargaining power.

For the average Pole it is clear waiting for a good opportunity and desparate sellers is the best stategy.

--there will be good deals, this is certain. 40-35 m2 flats have always been selling- I think bargaining will be available at the 100-140 m2 level, or they will be split -like a builder I worked with did.

Currently Poland is still ok, there is still investment (welcome back Dominos Pizza and Toys R Us is on the way) - small examples I know.

--retail in this country is an enigma. I lived here when burger king and dominoes were here the first time--they were busy but for some reason they shut down. (we don't eat this food, but an observation as a passerby) It blows my mind how some things will survive and some die- perfect example, why is media markt and saturn successful but electro world bit the big one?

When I think of my city in Canada (o the majority of countries in Europe) compared to Poland, I'm definately glad to be here from an economics point of view.

--my city in Canada is doing ok. homes are still selling and people are still spending- places like Hamilton and Windsor have been hit harder.
Wedle 16 | 496
21 Nov 2011 #209
Poland has been doing well, but all good things come to an end (or at least a slowdown).

There is opportunity when the market is down as well as up. The one good point that not many people are raising is at 4.45 to 1 Euro you are almost seeing a 25% discount from the highs of the PLN. I personally will buy more real estate if the prices drop, medium to long term Poland is well positioned and has good Fundamentals.
BRS 2 | 48
22 Nov 2011 #210
wbj.pl/article-57009-is-now-the-time-to-invest-in-rentals.h tml?type=lim

Another nonsense article - suggesting a good time to buy an apartment to rent as well as other self-serving nonsense.

Mystery solved, Milky thinks we are going to the level of Moldavia, the lowest priced apartments in Europe - from today's paper:

Warsaw 19th in European apartment price ranking
The most expensive apartments in Europe are in Monaco, says a ranking prepared by
the Global Property Guide, where a square meter comes to zł.173,000. London and
Paris reported similar levels, with prices of zł.66,800 and zł.59,000 per square meter,
respectively. Warsaw ranked 19th on the list, with an average price of zł.15,000 per
square meter. The capital of Moldavia closed the ranking, with a per square meter price
of zł.4,500. The comparison was made on 120 square meter higher standard flats.
Prices were calculated from euro using a zł.4.40 exchange rate.
Puls Biznesu,, Nov 22, p 7, MCO

Moldavia

and before you attack me, I assume they mean Chisinau, the capital of Moldova - not Moldavia


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