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Buying a flat in Krakow; prices are still falling?


alexw68
10 Feb 2011 #121
Entirely credible - but there's also a top end to the distribution as well. Blizniaki, tarasowce - they're all on offer and as someone further up the thread pointed out, these aren't all sells that have stiffed for a year, many are new entries to the market. Some of the transactions are now starting to happen (often with only a <50 or even <30% mortgage, or straight cash transactions, avoiding the difficulties with financing) - but they're happening. Simples.

OK, anecdotal evidence and all that - but why is it that EVERYONE we know (ex-DINKYs who had kids in the last 2-3 years) is looking to upgrade from kawalerki to a house in the suburbs?
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
10 Feb 2011 #122
but why is it that EVERYONE we know (ex-DINKYs who had kids in the last 2-3 years) is looking to upgrade from kawalerki to a house in the suburbs?

People upgrade, that's the whole idea of a property ladder.

Also with the vastly improving infrastructure (thanks to the E.U. funding), it is cheaper and more convenient for a young family to live in a house, out of the centre of the city, with a garden, only a short drive along a new motorway in to the city (if that is where they work).

A highish end, newly built, one bed flat in the centre of Krakow (50 m2) costs about 500,000 PLN, you can easily get a large (4 bed) highish end, newly built house along one of the motorways for the same price.

* I put "highish end" in bold for you Milky ;)
alexw68
10 Feb 2011 #123
Also with the vastly improving infrastructure (thanks to the E.U. funding), it is cheaper and more convenient for a young family to live in a house, out of the centre of the city, with a garden, only a short drive along a new motorway in to the city (if that is where they work).

Exactly. Poznan's not really there yet with the road infrastructure but it's a matter of time - and people are making those kind of moves with that near-term change in mind.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
10 Feb 2011 #124
road infrastructure

Just to show what is actually happening in real terms in Poland, here's a graph of the motorways and express roads over the past 11 years:

Chart upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3a/PL-Motorways-en.svg
And if that is not enough, Click Here for an excellent view of Polish roads, you can choose your year from 1936 - 2015
stadiony.klszarak.org/scc_a_s.swf

I understand that Milky claims he lives in Ireland, so the only thing he really sees is Polish people working there and he claims that this was the only driving force behind the increase in property prices, which is only a part of the big picture (approx 2 million emigrated vs the 38 million here).

It would be too simplistic to say that there is only one cause for Poland's relative success thus far, Balcerowicz Plan, Devaluation of the Zloty (perfect timing), E.U. funds and emigration are what I would consider the most important issues, maybe others could add to it?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balcerowicz_Plan

The whole idea of the E.U. is to get all countries on a level playing field, it will take time but we are well on our way.
Harry
10 Feb 2011 #125
a short drive along a new motorway in to the city (if that is where they work).

At least in Warsaw, a drive which can be done in 15 minutes when there's no traffic can take more than an hour and a half at peak times. Or at least that's what people who live in the suburbs tell me, personally I like being able to walk to work in 12 minutes.
poland_
10 Feb 2011 #126
2 bedroom flats that are the most sought after

Agree with this 100%, 50-80 m2 is the most active and stable part of the market.

At least in Warsaw, a drive which can be done in 15 minutes when there's no traffic can take more than an hour and a half at peak times. Or at least that's what people who live in the suburbs tell me.

Exactly, if you live in Lomianki or Konstancin you are screwed. It only makes sense to buy a house outside of the center with a good railway connection. like Zalesie or Milanowek/ Pod in Warsaw
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
10 Feb 2011 #127
At least in Warsaw, a drive which can be done in 15 minutes when there's no traffic can take more than an hour and a half at peak times. Or at least that's what people who live in the suburbs tell me, personally I like being able to walk to work in 12 minutes.

Fair enough, I think this is more for a family with kids and all.
More about quality of life than efficiency, most Poles are from the country, in a country with 38 million people and only 1.7 million in the capital, I would say that's proportionately rare.

And the point was in reply to this:

but why is it that EVERYONE we know (ex-DINKYs who had kids in the last 2-3 years) is looking to upgrade from kawalerki to a house in the suburbs?

Not to the author/teacher/James Bond life style you have :)
milky 13 | 1,657
11 Feb 2011 #128
but thats just my opinion, I only build and sell them so I could be telling lies.

lol, so 'developers'are known for truth?? Pull the other one buddy!!

it is cheaper and more convenient for a young family to live in a house, out of the centre of the city, with a garden, only a short drive along a new motorway in to the city

The price of petrol and (sh1te)wages in Poland,if you want a wage left over, at the end of the month; walk or cycle to work..(30-40 km) walk,might be hard though!.

I like being able to walk to work in 12 minutes.

I say no more.

approx 2 million emigrated vs the 38 million here)

Is still a huge section of the (age group)house buying population. Enough to kick of the Ponzi property bubble for sure.
Harry
11 Feb 2011 #129
lol, so 'developers'are known for truth?? Pull the other one buddy!!

Why don't you tell us developers say, Mark? Other, of course, than "I'm sorry but you'll need to get a job before you can get a mortgage."

The price of petrol and (sh1te)wages in Poland,if you want a wage left over, at the end of the month; walk or cycle to work..(30-40 km) walk,might be hard though!.

Either that or get a job to go with your wife's job. How is the sole breadwinner, Mark?

I say no more.

Not much you can say Mark, unless you want to tell me how long the walk I take every day and you've never taken lasts!
Avalon 4 | 1,068
11 Feb 2011 #130
milky

lol, so 'developers'are known for truth?? Pull the other one buddy!!

It seems ironic that you should question anyones integrety while posting on the Forums under multiple identities and providing no proofs of the statements you make. My business depends on the clients, building inspectors and surveyors being happy with the product, thus, making any lies or exaggerations, (like your life) pointless.

It is very easy to criticize others when you have no experience yourself. I sold another apartment this tuesday to a young couple (no children) which was 79m2 with two bedrooms. They are very happy with their purchase and the whole buying process took 4 weeks.

By the way, "Buddy" is not an Irish or English term, so, another mistake you have made, along with all your statements on these property threads.

Milky, with my skills I can go anywhere in the world and earn money, you on the other hand will always be one of those twisted, resentful people who never get off their a** to do anything but complain and make derogatory remarks about others.

I suggest that you learn about the subject you wish to comment on, not listen to your mates down the pub who have little or no experience of the property market in Poland.
Wroclaw Boy
11 Feb 2011 #131
Avalon just out of interest are any of the buyers on your development residing overseas, that you know of?
Avalon 4 | 1,068
11 Feb 2011 #132
Yes. one couple is working in Ireland and another couple is working in Holland. Both couples are intending to return some time in the near future.
milky 13 | 1,657
15 Feb 2011 #133
For all those people with "inbuilt bullsh1t detectors",in relation to Poland's massive property bubble,watch this.... Do no me fooled by the lackeys on board, manipulating the technologies of distraction.

youtube.com/watch?v=0znF8vWUWmA
Avalon 4 | 1,068
15 Feb 2011 #134
Milky, "manipulating the technologies of distraction" is what you are trying to do, not the others on this forum. You post a link to a video that is 2 years old and relates to Ireland, NOT, Poland. The banks here did not lend or encourage sub-prime mortgages. Indeed, most mortgages were advanced on the basis of a hefty deposit and personal checks on the applicants.

Why don't you post a video of the refugee camps in Somalia/Darfur and say that this is the way poor prople live in Krakow?.

We all know the story about what happened in Ireland, people over extended their borrowing. You might be able to do this for a few thousand złoty in Poland, but, certainly not the figures that have caused the collapse of Irelands economy. The only people here in Poland who may have a problem are the ones who took out mortgages in CHF, this has been due to currency fluctuations and I still have not heard of homes being reclaimed by the banks. The banks here also never lent unlimited amounts to developers, usually its up to a maximum of 50-60% of the cost of the project so they were/are not exposed to the losses that the Irish banks suffered. The Polish banks have not had to be bailed out and have made healthy profits during this financial crises. If things are as bleak as you say, why are the banks willing to fund my next project?, you can call me a liar if you wish (you usually do) but it does not change the facts of what is happing in Poland at this present time.

Are they still building and starting new projects in Ireland?, they are here!!!!
If you are going to post this crap on here at least make sure its relevant to Poland, otherwise, do your ******** on an Irish forum.
milky 13 | 1,657
17 Feb 2011 #135
Unregulated crapilism has become a universal system. There is a world recession and Poland is in Europe and it has a property bubble!!! and you are a developer.
jonni 16 | 2,485
17 Feb 2011 #136
Except the Polish economy is healthier than most, the property market is healthy and if it seems like a bubble (it isn't) that's due to being undervalued before.

Also, Poles are returning from the UK etc with spouses and savings, plus Krakow attracts expats. Easy language, nice country, decent people. I can see prices in Krakow rising.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
17 Feb 2011 #137
Please don't tell Milky that!!!!......it would mean that his predictions of massive falls in property prices are wrong and we need at least one idiot on here to keep this thread going. I would hate for us to lose our resident expert.
SeanBM 35 | 5,808
17 Feb 2011 #138
milky

I vote Milky for PF mascot!

Also, Poles are returning from the UK etc

Have you an links to any figures about that?
Just curious.

we need at least one idiot on here to keep this thread going.

Don't forget the rest of us idiots who answer ;P
jonni 16 | 2,485
17 Feb 2011 #139
I vote Milky for PF mascot!

Milky who claims on his (mistake filled) website that Polish is the hardest language in the world to learn. Harder than Arabic of Japanese. Wonder if he's tried Navaho...

Have you an links to any figures about that?
Just curious.

I don't think there are any reliable figures for it, only media reports in both countries.
milky 13 | 1,657
18 Feb 2011 #140
Milky who claims on his (mistake filled) website that Polish is the hardest language in the world to learn. Harder than Arabic of Japanese. Wonder if he's tried Navaho...

Sorry man, but that's not me,I'm afraid. Im Irish, that other guy is a yank, and he thinks the bubble will last another 20 yrs so he's a bit mental in my book.

Navaho would be a serious job to learn, as the psychology involved would demand a revolutionary change in thinking, in relation to conscious and unconscious mind patterns, but you are wrong in relation to the property bubble in Poland. The Polish economy is healthy lol, if it got any worse the UN would have to move in with food supplies.
jonni 16 | 2,485
18 Feb 2011 #141
Sorry man, but that's not me,I'm afraid

Wow

The Polish economy is healthy lol, if it got any worse the UN would have to move in with food supplies.

Yet growing, and no bubble in Krakow property prices.
milky 13 | 1,657
18 Feb 2011 #142
A stable bubble, yea...lol..So are you developer, as well, or just on the lacky payroll.
jonni 16 | 2,485
18 Feb 2011 #143
So are you developer, as well, or just on the lacky payroll.

The paranoia is dripping from your posts.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
18 Feb 2011 #144
Jonni, you are wasting your time. Milky is not interested in facts. He thrives in his dillusions. I mean, when you see all the television reports on the state of the housing sector in Ireland, the US, UK and Spain which have been shown over the past 3 years and then you see the television reports on the collasped Polish market?, oh thats right!!!!!, there have not been any reports on the collapsed Polish market. In fact, the only reports or comments on this so called price collapseI have been from Milky.

Read his posts carefully, look at the words he uses like "lacky". Classic socialist terms which underscore his hatred of anything to do with private enterprise. He has still not grasped that the governments are not going to build people free houses and so its left to developers (and God forbid that they should make a profit).

House prices should fall by 60%, the fact that the land, materials and labour to build them exceeds this price is irrelevant to Milky.
If I could buy land at 1960's prices and bricklayers, carpenters, plumbers, electricians etc, would go back to earning 15 GBP,s a week, it would be possible to keep Milky and his ilk, happy.

Unfortunately the "socialist" unions have pushed and pushed for ever higher wages, which, suprise!!, suprise!!, have caused house prices to spirial accordingly.
When I left the UK in 2004 it was difficult to find a carpenter to work, those we managed to get on site wanted 150 GBP a day (the day consisted of 1 hour to unload and pack up tools, 1 hour for breaks, 30 mins to read the newspaper and another hour to walk up and down the road, talking on their mobiles trying to find other builders who would offer them more money).

The cost of implementing Health & Safety regulations has added 10% to a site build, every aspect of work from lifting a bag of cement to putting on a roof tile needs a written method statement, men have to be trained to lift, climb a ladder, change the abrasive wheel on an angle grinder etc, trained and certified every 2 years. Forklift drivers have to be government tested every 3 years at a cost of around 400 GBP for a 30 minute test. Does the UK government make car and van drivers get tested every 3 years?

Milky has no idea of the hidden costs involved in building housing or the increased costs of financing/insuring projects. Unlike the UK which taxes you on profit at the end of the year, the Polish government taxes you on the first property you sell, so you are in fact, paying tax before you have recouped the money you have invested. The profits seem large but nobody takes into account the risk, the timescale or the stress involved in producing housing.

There are sharks in every industry but housing is a necessity, nobody bats an eyelid when car prices are increased by 10% or the government sticks an extra 2000 GBP in tax on them, yet, house prices are supposed to remain as they were when our parents bought their's.

Welcome to the real world, Milky.
Harry
18 Feb 2011 #145
House prices should fall by 60%, the fact that the land, materials and labour to build them exceeds this price is irrelevant to Milky.

And Milky Mark still can't grasp the fact that even if prices did go down by 60%, I'd still be left with a property which is worth 50% more than when I bought it and I've paid no rent for a decade!

Im Irish, that other guy is a yank

No, Mark Biernut describes himself as Irish-Polish-American.
Avalon 4 | 1,068
18 Feb 2011 #146
Harry, I have actually just bothered to read Biernut's website/blog. He states there that he has no experience with property, but, he has a Masters degree in economics. My ass!!!!.....he must have got the certificate in a packet of crisps. My 5 year old daughter has a better grasp of the English language and she is still in Kindergarten.

The bit I really like is his piece about "The best country to start a new business-Poland", he states that there is a well educated workforce available, with PHD's, masters etc who will work hard for 12 PLN an hour, no mention of the cost to the employer, "accountants cost pennies", yeah!! try hiring one!!!! He can also try to get a building tradesman for that kind of money.

I had my doubts about his posts on this forum, but, from what I have just read, he seems certifiable. The man will end up a legend in his own lunchtime.
Teffle 22 | 1,321
18 Feb 2011 #147
Good post @ #148 Avalon.
jonni 16 | 2,485
18 Feb 2011 #148
Makes a lot of sense.
milky 13 | 1,657
21 Feb 2011 #149
So,what's that got to do with me and Poland's massive property bubble????????????????????????????
jonni 16 | 2,485
21 Feb 2011 #150
There isn't one. Prices reflect the supply and demand and the availability of credit.


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