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Poland's political crisis deepens


Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #91
>I'm not sure that that are ready to pay the price. ...They're already hardships for majority of Russian at home, not alone caused by Russian imposed and imposed on Russia sanctions.

I agree, not yet, but the trend is strongly going their way. So maybe in a few years...who knows what could happen in that timeframe, with Trump in power and the EU and UK struggling?

Also, hardships at home will eventually help Putin, by hardening public opinion against sactions. It is easy for state media to convince people they have been wronged, and that they need to redress the balance and take back their rights, or punish those responsible. Classic dictator tactic - identify the external enemies and galvanise society against them using nationalism, and before long the people will follow you anywhere to regain their 'lost pride'.

USA and UK troops in Poland are just on rotation, they can easily be withdrawn to suit the mood at home. Don't underestimate just how exhautsed the UK and USA are with constant wars recently, which they have invariably lost. They are sick of seeing bodies coming home from bits of land the public doesn't care about, only to see their enemies take them back a few months later. And both have their domestic terrorism to worry about, and their economies (wars are expensive). Currently the UK doesn't even have an aircraft carrier, it is reducing the military considerably.

>I wonder how long that enthusiasm would last if the north stream as well as that pipe in Poland stop pumping oil and gas from Russia.

There's always China.

>That would be a very risky operation and costly either way - for Russia.

But also very rewarding. Russians feel insulted after 1989 and want to regain their former glory. Putin's ratings are extremely high. He's the best strategist in the world - Georgia, Ukraine, Syria - he's won them all and beaten the west. He even shoots down their passenger planes with impunity, and is constantly sending his military planes into UK airspace just to say "f*ck you". A few months ago he said his fleet past London on the way to defeating the UK's ambitions in Syria. He's very clever, very bold, very ambitious, utterly ruthless. If the time was right and he thinks the risks relatively low (like Ukraine), then Poland (or parts of it) will be taken in days.
Ironside 47 | 9,622
18 Dec 2016  #92
But also very rewarding

I'm sure that Russians have a very realistic outlook at those issues. At the present that course of action you suggest is very unlikely. Also Russia never won a war against Poland standing alone. This time Poland is not alone so that is even more unlikely at the moment.

What will happen and if will happen - that is hard to say. Seems unlikely that the USA will pack their stuff and revert to inflationism 19th century style - at this stage that is not longer feasible or possible.

There's always China.

Yes there is always China - is Russia ready to loose Siberia for some phantom gains in Poland? I think not.
After2020
18 Dec 2016  #93
"Putin in Ukraine and Syria. What do they have in common?" Both have Russian deep sea ports.
johnny reb 16 | 3,444
18 Dec 2016  #94
After what Putin pulled in Ukraine without consequences he had no fear of obama or Crooked Hillary.
And that is why Putin deployed his military vessels to Syria while he had a chance to before President Trump took office.
Poland is going to be caught right in the middle of it all.
Observvver
18 Dec 2016  #95
And it doesn't take a genius to work out why Putin helped hack Trump into the Oval Office. Putin is clever, and he knows Trump is dumb and totally lacking in experience (as it almost all of his team), so he will run rings around him and carry on playing his games. Putin's power and cionfidence will only grow.

>Poland is going to be caught right in the middle of it all.

Correct. And that is why PiS strategy of isolationism and international "f*ck yous" is so dangerous.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #96
And it doesn't take a genius to work out why Putin helped hack Trump into the Oval Office.

Indeed. It's in Putin's interest that America has a weak leader, which is unfortunately what it's now about to get.

And if anyone thinks that what Putin's done there hasn't happened 50 times more effectively in Poland they are deluding themselves.
Ironside 47 | 9,622
18 Dec 2016  #97
After what Putin pulled in Ukraine without consequences he had no fear of obama or Crooked Hillary.

Indeed . All that that transpired is due to Obama's policy.
---

Putin is clever,

Yeah Putin is genius, go and build him a temple you funny guy.
--
Trump won't be worse than Obama who hated USA and western civilization or Hillary who would sell Ukraine, Poland and whatnot to Russia for an ample sum of money. Who knows he could be better, much better.
johnny reb 16 | 3,444
18 Dec 2016  #98
which is unfortunately what it's now about to get.

Just the opposite jon.
If President Trump decides that he has had a belly full of countries that spit on America that America offers military security and foreign aid to and dissolves NATO.......well you connect the dots.

President Trump already said that it is time for the EU to create their own defenses because they are not paying their way in NATO as they promised they would. (Time to pony up with some real sacrifices like the American public make for their military)

Poland is one country that has pulled it's own weight by paying their fair share as they promised.
The rest of the countries who are not would have to create a draft (private smurf and corporal Harry), raise taxes by double to pay for a substantial military and be ready to shed some blood.

That's why the Socialist EU countries fear both Putin and Trump because it puts them in a very vulnerable position of gravy train over.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #99
well you connect the dots

Then all those other countries will turn their back on Trump. A weak leader, a petulant child and a puppet of Putin.

The world does not need America.
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #100
A weak leader

laughable :)

a puppet of Putin

Can't you wait till they meet/speak to each other till you make this statement? Oh wait, sorry, I forgot progressives don't like facts.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #101
Can't you wait till they meet/speak to each other till you make this statement?

Don't be silly, Wulky. Unless you think Putin is benign.

As an economic migrant you should be very worried by the events of this year.
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #102
Don't be silly, Wulky.

You're the one who is silly here and has no valid argument.

As an economic migrant

I'm an economic migrant like you are an expat.

worried by the events of this year.

Brexit, Trump president, those give me hope in the future of humanity.
dolnoslask 5 | 2,423
18 Dec 2016  #103
As an economic migrant you should be very worried

Theres an Idea Polexit to get rid of all these uk migrants.

Only kidding Poles aren't that xenophobic as to pull a brexit.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #104
Theres an Idea Polexit to get rid of all these uk migrants.

As if that's about to happen. There are bigger problems in Poland.

I'm an economic migrant like you are an expat.

Glad you admit it for a change, however hard to see the points that you were trying to make about Poland's current political crisis. Things are certainly getting interesting here, but I suppose you wouldn't notice the various issues or feel the nuances from afar. When half a dozen Poles of various political persuasions right across the spectrum over the last two days mention the possibility of civil war, one wonders about the degree to which they exaggerate.

Brexit

Make sure you keep your stamps up to date for when you're down the Labour Exchange...
johnny reb 16 | 3,444
18 Dec 2016  #105
Trump. A weak leader,

Trump hasn't even been sworn in yet so that statement shows that you haven't got over his victory yet.

The world does not need America

America bailed you out in WW1 and WW2 in case you have forgotten son.
Hopefully President Trump will stand down and let ya'll fight WW3 all by yourselves since you don't need America.
I, like Trump, could care less to what happens to Socialist countries that have been ungrateful to Americans that have sacrificed the ultimate for them.
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #106
As if that's about to happen. There are bigger problems in Poland.

Like KOD and their zombies

Glad you admit it for a change

When didn't I admit that?

Poland's current political crisis.

We had political crisis for 8 years before current government was elected.

Make sure you keep your stamps up to date

What stamps?

Trump hasn't even been sworn in yet so that statement shows that you haven't got over his victory yet.

Beautifully said.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #107
America bailed you out in WW1 and WW2 in case you have forgotten son.

Who cares, the world can get by very nicely without America; indeed as a country it currently has more enemies than friends and that fool of a president-elect is likely to worsen the situation, not least as he is putty in Putin's hands. I look forward to the Democrat landslide four years from now, if indeed Washington isn't a smoking pile of rubble by then.

Interesting how you think this relates to the current breakdown in Polish politics, an issue that will be dominating discussion here in Europe for some time...
dolnoslask 5 | 2,423
18 Dec 2016  #108
As if that's about to happen. There are bigger problems in Poland.

As I said only kidding, but lets see as time pans out which is the bigger crisis Brexit or or the perceived political crisis in Poland.

No parliment can have up to 800 newshounds poking their lenses up the toilet cubiclles for gods sake, two passes per news agency and five tv channels covering events is more than the EU and Brit parliment offer.
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #109
the world can get by very nicely without America

Boo hoo, jon doesn't like America because Trump won, cry me a river :-))))

Interesting how you think this relates to the current breakdown in Polish politics

There is no breakdown in Polish politics, only butt hurt losers funded by Soros money.
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
18 Dec 2016  #110
Well, Wulky, that isn't saying very much is it, or adding to the discourse about the current political crisis in any way.

To stay on topic, it's worth mentioning that the crowds of Poles outside the Sejm were there again this evening and JK has not been seen since Friday...
TheOther 5 | 3,643
18 Dec 2016  #111
Beautifully said...

... and total BS as usual. Trump is the president-elect and as such, every single one of his actions and stupid tweets are seen by the world as a reflection of the position of the incoming US administration.
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #112
stupid tweets

but his tweets are smart

every single one of his actions

like saving loads of jobs before he was even sworn?

and total BS as usual.

yes, there is a lot of BS in what you say

JK has not been seen since Friday...

jeez really? what could that be? Maybe you can look for him and find him.

that isn't saying very much is it, or adding to the discourse about the current political crisis in any way.

Because there is no political crisis in Poland, it only exists in sick minds like yours.
TheOther 5 | 3,643
18 Dec 2016  #113
but his tweets are smart

You meant "unpresidented". LMAO!
Wulkan - | 3,251
18 Dec 2016  #114
Nope, I didn't mean that but keep on laughing or rather pretend that you are :-)
OP jon357 63 | 14,110
19 Dec 2016  #115
Because there is no political crisis in Poland, it only exists in sick minds like yours.

You're so funny, evidently you haven't been following the news. Even PIS are calling it a crisis now...
TheOther 5 | 3,643
19 Dec 2016  #116
keep on laughing

Oh, I certainly will. Always look at the bright side of life, lala, lala, la la la la la la ... :)
Wulkan - | 3,251
19 Dec 2016  #117
Always look at the bright side of life

haha, that's the only thing you have left, looking positively at failures.

Even PIS are calling it a crisis now

Kijowski and his zombies are perhaps crisis but not political since they don't have political power and will never have.
TheOther 5 | 3,643
19 Dec 2016  #118
looking positively at failures

Best of luck to the Trump supporters and "may you live in interesting times" ... ;)
johnny reb 16 | 3,444
19 Dec 2016  #119
I look forward to the Democrat landslide four years from now

Do I need to remind you that you looked for this one to be a landslide too. Remember ?

Likewise. Anyway, Hillary will win.

Oops, jon was wrong again.
Poland's best friend will be President Trump as Poland's crisis deepens.
The Queen or Merkel sure aren't going to make things better for Poland.
Observvver
19 Dec 2016  #120
>Poland's best friend will be President Trump as Poland's crisis deepens.

As everyone keeps saying, Trump is a businessman. He does deals. Any support of Poland will have to be begged for, to show he's a tough guy, and he'll demand a very high price. That might be financial (skewed his way) or influence (puppeteering). The man also has no ideological principles at all, so whether he decides to support Poland in any way will depend only on what he can get from it (and very good terms for him), not whether it is the 'right' thing to do by Poland and her people.


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