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Have PO (Platforma) operatives in Poland fallen into a panic?


Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #1
As successive polls show PiS in the lead, there are predictions of a possible 40% backing which would allow them to go it alone in government, PO operatives, often referred to collectively as Lemingrad (the part of Wilanów many of them inhabit), have fallen into a panic. In a last-ditch attempt to avert their electoral knockout they are dredging up dirt on PiS and trotting out the IV RP scare. Their elite forming "the arrangement" (układ) have made themselves a cozy nest during 8 years of PO rule and are now scrambling to size up post-election options. The "arrangement" is comparable to a 4-sided bridge table: corrupt liberal/post-communist politicians; shady businessmen; mercenary media; and individuals with links to past and present special services. Lemingrad naturally deny that any such "arrangement" even exists, claim everything is super democratic, above board and hunkydory (adding under their breath "as long as we are at the trough"). Ordinary Poles, however, can plainly see the PO regime has been very beneficial to a narrow elite of bankers, corporations and collaborationist media, but not to the average Pole. All indications are that Adam Nowak and Anna Kowalska aim to rectify the situation at the ballot box.

politykawarszawska.pl/index.php/article/80

Please put more thought into your thread titles in future.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #2
As successive polls show PiS in the lead, there are predictions of a possible 40% backing which would allow them to go it alone in government

Latest opinion polls show PiS on a maximum of 38%. 40% wouldn't be enough - PO won 41.5% in 2007 and still needed the PSL for a majority.

PO operatives, often referred to collectively as Lemingrad (the part of Wilanów many of them inhabit), have fallen into a panic.

Not really. PO are still sitting on 28% of the vote, and Kukiz is fading badly as his programme is coming under attack from both PiS and PO.

In a last-ditch attempt to avert their electoral knockout they are dredging up dirt on PiS and trotting out the IV RP scare.

Nothing that PiS haven't done for the last 8 years. The IV republic is a real threat, as witnessed by PiS voters online that are foaming at the mouth of obtaining revenge. Furthermore, PiS have been badly affected in the past by corruption scandals, such as with Duda's links to SKOK and Hoffman's drunken Ryanair trips.

The "arrangemetn"

Actually, it's rather an arrangement that keeps power away from PiS. Suits me, and the majority.

Ordinary Poles, however, can plainly see the PO regime has been very beneficial to a narrow elite of bankers, coportations and collaborationist media, but not to the average Pole.

Utter bollocks.

Polonius, do you drive? Do you use the railways?

The huge problem for PiS right now is Kukiz. His behaviour is erratic, and with his comments about destroying political orders and so on - PiS have a lot to worry about if the only viable coalition is with him. They desperately need a parliamentary majority (which would be unprecedented, and highly unlikely with PO on 28%) in order to rule, as Kukiz will just repeat the performance of Lepper.

Dare I say it, but I think a Grand Coalition between PO and PiS would serve Poland far more than letting that clown Kukiz anywhere near power. I'm sure a deal could be done with PiS to ignore social issues in exchange for pushing through a centre-left economy with increased public spending.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #3
IV republic is a real threat to PO fatcats, scam artists and the whole "układ" of hand-washes-hand oldboys.

Dunno if you were around back then, but it was PO in a state of shock atfer losing in 2005 that scuttled any talk of a grand PO-PiS coalition. Interestingly in the summer of 2005 it was Komorowski who began the anti-PiS backstabbing, even thoiugh a grand PO-PiS coaliton was envisaged. Everyone inclduing PiS believed PO would come in first place.
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #4
Nothing that PiS haven't done for the last 8 years.

Exactly - all they can do it ineffectively try to muckrake despite being by far the dirtiest of the parties. Let's hope the voters remember what an abject and utter disaster they were when they briefly got into office through the back door.

The huge problem for PiS right now is Kukiz. His behaviour is erratic, and with his comments about destroying political orders and so on - PiS have a lot to worry about if the only viable coalition is with him.

They'll sup with the devil if it gives them another chance to be corrupt - look at last time. And yes, he will bring them down.

think a Grand Coalition between PO and PiS would serve Poland far more than letting that clown Kukiz anywhere near power.

Hopefully Platforma will not consider that - imagine having to work with the likes of Macierewicz, Kaczynski, Ziobro - nutters to a man.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #5
IV republic is a real threat to PO fatcats, scam artists and the whole "układ" of hand-washes-hand oldboys.

No, it's a threat to democracy.

Dunno if you were around back then, but it was PO in a state of shock atfer losing in 2005 that scuttled any talk of a grand PO-PiS coalition.

PO didn't need to enter a coalition then. They knew that the only other alternative on the table for PiS was to try and form a government with the support of two very unsuitable coalition partners, and that all they had to do was to sit back and relax. It was a very smart political strategy, as witnessed by the destruction of PiS as an electoral threat for years.

It's the same story now. If PiS are forced into a coalition with Kukiz, PO will sit back and watch as they implode. PiS are - yet again - in the impossible situation where the only possible coalition partner is also one that will destroy them. In this case, in the event of a PiS victory, the best possible situation is to form a minority government and attempt to rule through consensus.

Any return of IV Republic policies (including the kind of nonsense that they indulged in last time...) will see early elections and PiS punished for another 8 years.

Speaking of the upcoming referenda, does anyone know if JOW will be implemented immediately for the 2015 elections in the event of a Yes vote?
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #6
Kukiz is fading badly

Kukiz voters would grudgingly support PiS but never PO which they view as the epitome of the "system" or "establishment" they hope to overthrow. Add Kukiz's 12-16% to PiS' 38% and we get up to 54% -- enough to rule indepedently. But that is theoretical because Kukiz is likely to retain some of his supporters -- maybe 8-10% so that would add only about 6-7% to PiS for a grand total of up to 45%.

Much can still change. The dopalacz affair in Katowice causing 50 people to be rushed ot hospital will remind voters of one of Tusk's many unkept promises -- to eliminate the designer-drug trade.
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #7
Any return of IV Republic policies (including the kind of nonsense that they indulged in last time...) will see early elections and PiS punished for another 8 years.

It just won't happen
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #8
But it will and Poland need it like a breath of fresh air, like a cool spring in a sun-parched desert.
Time to sweep away PO/SLD/PSL/Palikot grime, slime and scum!
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #9
But it will

No. It was tried by a very dodgy regime who were kicked out. You personally may want it - the voters do not.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #10
Kukiz voters would grudgingly support PiS but never PO which they view as the epitome of the "system" or "establishment" they hope to overthrow.

Not really. They've already started to go back to PO - Kukiz is down to a mere 11% in the latest polls and he's falling away badly.

Add Kukiz's 12-16% to PiS' 38% and we get up to 54% -- enough to rule indepedently. But that is theoretical because Kukiz is likely to retain some of his supporters -- maybe 8-10% so that would add only about 6-7% to PiS for a grand total of up to 45%.

45% won't happen. Remember, the PO landslide in 2007 saw only 41.5% for PO, and that was with massive popular support for change. PiS also have to contend with the PSL taking away some of their support, so the most realistic outcome is no more than 38%. It would still be enough if Kukiz were to gain enough votes to get into the Sejm, but it would be a dreadful coalition from the PiS point of view. Kukiz - even with a handful of seats - would demand "change" - and that change would probably hurt PiS.

Kukiz is making an absolute idiot out of himself. His proposals are even more fairyland stuff than PiS, and his voters are realising that he has no platform or manifesto whatsoever.

Much can still change. The dopalacz affair in Katowice causing 50 people to be rushed ot hospital will remind voters of one of Tusk's many unkept promises -- to eliminate the designer-drug trade.

It already has changed. The law changed this year.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #11
dreadful coalition

Let's say PO narrowly win by 1-1.5% with only PiS and Kukiz in the Sejm. Do they form a coalition with their arch-enemy Kukiz? (For some reason Kukiz harbours an almost paranoid hatred of PO.)
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #12
Curious old article from how PiS behaved just before the 2007 election.

freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1900355/posts

Very strange that they would refuse OSCE observers.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #13
The law changed this year.

It must've been a pro forma change if dopalacze are still so easily obtainable.

Re Kukiz not having a programme - he has proposed a 2000 zł pay rise across the board and lowering men's retirement age to 55.
Wałęsa's 2000 zł pay rise after "S" was recognised led to the emptying of shop shelves and butcher's hooks. People strolled about with cases full of cash looking for a kolejka to join. If you didn't need what was being sold, no problem - you could barter it over to a neighbour.
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #14
A bit more than a 'pro-forma' change, though interesting that you criticise them for not eliminating drugs overnight. Not even Nancy 'just say no' Reagan could do that or indeed the whole DEA.

Symptomatic of the foolish rhetoric of the PiS flappers - yelling at others and finding spurious criticisms against political rivals who try to make a difference whereas they achieved a big fat zero.
eh?
11 Jul 2015  #15
PiS have to put up with a lot of propagandising against them now, I suspect a lot of it is utter falsehood regurgitated to make it in constant repetition wrt inspiration from goebbels
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #16
a lot of propagandising

Or merely a fraction of the ridicule that is due them....
eh?
11 Jul 2015  #17
The more I googled what people on here said about PiS, the more head scratching I had, not just because of my very chronic dandruff but down to the fact a lot of falsehoods are propagated a la goebbels stylee about PiS from some propaganda sausage factory
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #18
The more I googled what people on here said about PiS, the more head scratching

Were you in Poland when they briefly held office? An unmitigated disaster and they were thrown out mid term by a massive voting turnout...
eh?
11 Jul 2015  #19
Yeah you keep saying that about PiS but I never met one person who agrees on that take of yours, only 1 or 2 likely biased newspapers telling people what to think. Bit like expecting the Mirror to tell everyone to vote Tory innit
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #20
who agrees on that take of yours,

Because that is now a minority view of those elitists who fear losing their perks and privleges not to mention bribe opportunities which were not discouraged by PO. PO created a hate industry designed to blacken, besmirch and badmouth PiS and kept intimidating voters with the PiS scarecrow. But it's like the boy who called 'wolf'. It worked a coupla times, but....
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #21
but I never met one person who agrees on that take of yours,

You probably meet the wrong people. They were roundly hated. If you want to think it's a 'take' of mine - well, you're certainly entitled to your own opinion, however odd - the election that booted them out had a massive landslide victory.

Bit like expecting the Mirror to tell everyone to vote Tory innit

Or the biased Daily Star telling people to vote for the Tories.
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #22
An unmitigated disaster

Caused by the PO hate industry, their constant undermining, backbiritng, badgering and badmouthing of the PiS-led government. Voters soon learnt that PO were the consummate scam artists and experts at sweeping their dirt under the rug. The tape scandal was one scandal too many!
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #23
More a groundswell of ordinary people who turned out to vote because they didn't want a 'government' whose main policy was, according to their discredited party leader "teraz kurwa my" - "now it's our f*cking turn" (for corruption).

You know something's rotten when the coalition party's leader hangs himself in his office...
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #24
Yeah you keep saying that about PiS but I never met one person who agrees on that take of yours, only 1 or 2 likely biased newspapers telling people what to think. Bit like expecting the Mirror to tell everyone to vote Tory innit

Actually, if you look back through the archives on here, you'll find plenty of examples of what they did. Meddling with the justice system (including making it clear that the Minister of Justice had the right to interfere with sentencing and other aspects of "justice" was but one example).

They were an absolute mess. And I don't know what kind of people you're talking with, given that the voters went against PiS in droves in 2007.

Let's say PO narrowly win by 1-1.5% with only PiS and Kukiz in the Sejm. Do they form a coalition with their arch-enemy Kukiz? (For some reason Kukiz harbours an almost paranoid hatred of PO.)

That's an interesting scenario, and plausible. If we assume that the numbers are something like 195-190 with Kukiz holding the other seats, it suddenly becomes a huge problem for PO. I honestly don't know where they go - forming a coalition with Kukiz would be electoral suicide, yet the alternative would be Kukiz supporting (at least) a PiS minority government. PiS would then be in the PO-2005 situation - they wouldn't have to do anything at all. In fact - this should really be the PiS aim - leave PO to try and form a viable government.

Wisdom has it that the winning party will usually be punished if they cause a second election. So in your scenario - PiS would merely have to be seen to be offering a viable Grand Coalition with PO and they would come to no harm. PO on the other hand - they would have to try and find a way to form a viable government - which would be very difficult given that Kukiz has promised the moon and PiS wouldn't need to enter any coalition as they could probably find some economic common ground with Kukiz to enable them to run a minority government.

So, your scenario is actually the worst case for PO. They also suffer more than PiS when it comes to voter fatigue, so a second election would be a disaster for them too. PiS could also benefit massively from offering to abstain on certain votes in exchange for pushing through some Duda-led ideas, so it would really be great for them. It would also give PiS a chance to show that they can behave responsibly and can be trusted with power.

Re Kukiz not having a programme - he has proposed a 2000 zł pay rise across the board and lowering men's retirement age to 55.
Wałęsa's 2000 zł pay rise after "S" was recognised led to the emptying of shop shelves and butcher's hooks. People strolled about with cases full of cash looking for a kolejka to join. If you didn't need what was being sold, no problem - you could barter it over to a neighbour.

Yes, it's economically nonsense and just populist rubbish. He was supposed to try and offer something different, but he seems to be trying to position himself to the right of PiS socially and to the left of PiS economically.

Polonius, as a PiS supporter, would you accept a coalition with PO?
OP Polonius3 1,000 | 12,448
11 Jul 2015  #25
teraz kurwa my

You misssed the punchline as usual!

Teraz kurwa my pokażemy tym platformerskim grandziarzom, gdzie raki zimują!
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #26
And how would he fund this 2000zl pay rise for everyone? How would he compensate the businesses that fail? How would he manage the inflationary effect?
eh?
11 Jul 2015  #27
Well if the f word is good enough for our Prince (Gawd bless 'im!) then good enough for a humble president of RP independent.co.uk/news/uk/prince-philip-impatient-at-photographer-just-take-the-fing-picture--video-10381185.html

I take it btw civic platform had a landslide majority after the PiS up you mention and not a coalition having failed to get a majority? surely that would be the only outcome of such a supposed terrible administration. Following that, masses of polish migrants must have flocked home to poland with relief at Po's return to the wheel, right? Yes I remember it well now, boat loads departing dover and stn the day after Po won. :D

". Meddling with the justice system "
Hasnt Po just interfered recently and shortened the maximum sentence for certain serious crimes? The difference is?
jon357 63 | 14,134
11 Jul 2015  #28
I take it btw civic platform had a landslide majority after the PiS up you mention

Yes - and a big turnout.

Following that, masses of polish migrants must have flocked home to poland with relief at Po's return to the wheel, right?

Why would that happen - most people had only just left.

surely that would be the only outcome of such a supposed terrible administration

What are you smoking? The outcome was to dump them with a massive turnout and party for days afterwards.

Fun to watch the number one PiS flapper prime minister being bundled out of the back door of Lancaster House to avoid the angry crowds of London Poles in the street outside.
delphiandomine 83 | 17,669
11 Jul 2015  #29
And how would he fund this 2000zl pay rise for everyone? How would he compensate the businesses that fail? How would he manage the inflationary effect?

He wouldn't, it's just populist bollocks.

But the voters seem to have figured out that Kukiz has no real ideas.

Po won. :D

PO won 41.5%, the biggest win in the history of the III RP. The final result meant that something like 68% of voters were against PiS.

I remember the news well, and one theme that kept coming up is that the voters in London kept saying that they wanted a country to return to - hence the crowds that went to vote for PO there.
eh?
11 Jul 2015  #30
to comment on just one point: "Why would that happen - most people had only just left." well where are they? its years since Po had that landslide you claim, why didnt the majority come back home to poland? and if things were so bad, why had they only just left? surely a groundswell of opinion against PiS would have been been building and well known in the period leading up to the election so as to give cause to stop poles leaving RP in their tracks because of the apparant certinty of Po's victory and PiS being out of office. I'll put it more simply in case it's you whose smoking: if the emigrants only just left, there could be no groundswell against PiS or they'd have hung around for Po. You can't have it both ways Jon.

"I remember the news well, and one theme that kept coming up is that the voters in London kept saying that they wanted a country to return to - hence the crowds that went to vote for PO there."

but they didn't return !!! Instead more went over to eire and england.
What happened in 2010 if Po were so good from 2007?
Where are all the poles who left? Back in 2007, left again in 2010? LOL :D


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