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The first PiS led government in 2005 lasted just over 2 years in Poland.


Wincig 2 | 151    
20 Dec 2016  #1
Do you think the current one will last longer?
jon357 64 | 14,382    
20 Dec 2016  #2
It largely depends whether an alternative emerges. When they were briefly in last time people were desperate to get rid of them. Now, 500+ (entirely a cynical vote-grabber) acts in their favour and the opposition is so far fractured. It also depends on whether they'll go so far that there are sanctions and when the first major sleaze scandal emerges.
OP Wincig 2 | 151    
20 Dec 2016  #3
Now, 500+ (entirely a cynical vote-grabber)

Why do you say this? Given the very low birth rate in Poland, anything that helps give it a boost must be welcome. The fact that it is also a vote grabber is the icing on the cake.Only conundrum is why PO had not thought of something similar when they were in power..
sawii    
20 Dec 2016  #4
look at all governments where mr Jarek had his hands onto and you will get the answers...since 1991

500 + WILL NOT make people born more children, unless they are complete obedient morons. who in his right mind decides to have a baby, because a Party promised him 500 pln/ month for 18 years ? only real communist would do....Me, communist ? NEVER ! Mee, socialist ? NEVER !

What can make polish people have more kids is the better economy situation in the country, possibilities for the kids to grow, living in moe friendly tax environment, etc, etc. Also, better access to flats - more flats.

What I said before is kind of true in my opinion, but actually it doesnt matter for people having kids, as the richest countries in the world have the same problem - their population is dying and getting older. People who still procreate in this world are very often people that dont care and dont plan anything - from countries like Dominican republic, Haiti or some african and asian countries.
OP Wincig 2 | 151    
21 Dec 2016  #5
What can make polish people have more kids is the better economy situation in the country, possibilities for the kids to grow, living in moe friendly tax environment, etc, etc. Also, better access to flats - more flats.

i am not sure that is entirely right. Look at France, where the birth rate has been one of the highest in Europe (and not only thanks to immigrants :)), this was largely due to in my mind to the tax and allowance system which was until recently favoring families.
Wulkan - | 3,255    
21 Dec 2016  #6
Do you think the current one will last longer?

It will last full 4 years, anything else would end up in a civil war.
Chemikiem 5 | 1,473    
21 Dec 2016  #7
Given the very low birth rate in Poland, anything that helps give it a boost must be welcome.

I agree to an extent, but Sawii's comment in post 4 is also relevant.
Any parents considering having more children on the basis of receiving the extra funds are not being very farsighted. Who knows if the government can balance the books at the end of their term? The 500+ policy is going to cost a fortune. In addition, if a new party is elected at the end of their term, who is to say that this policy will continue? It might get scrapped.

People are surely not that stupid. It might be a deal breaker for those families who were thinking of having more children anyway, extra money is always a bonus, but anyone considering having more kids just for the extra cash, has got to be some sort of moron anyway.
Chemikiem 5 | 1,473    
21 Dec 2016  #8
Look at France, where the birth rate has been one of the highest in Europe , this was largely due to in my mind to the tax and allowance system

The difference is that the tax and allowance system in France regarding families has been of long standing, Poland has only just introduced a family friendly allowance so has a long way to go to catch up. Continuing to offer incentives to families by this government and future elected parties, may make a difference to the birth rate, only time will tell.

Could be wrong but my personal feelings are that PiS are going to run out of money and the program will fold. If that is the case, it will make a definite difference come the next elections. That policy was indeed a vote grabber, no doubt about it.
terri 1 | 1,572    
21 Dec 2016  #9
The current PiS government will call an election just before the money runs out....and will convince voters that there is still money left to continue all their good works.

Only a fool lives on borrowed money...
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
21 Dec 2016  #10
call an election

One cannot rule out that a snap election will produce even greater support for PiS than in 2015. Consumption is growing, buying power has increased, production is growing, unemployment is at its lowest level in 25 years. In addition to purely economic issues, Poles now have an enhanced sense of sovereignty, dignity and security than they did under the previous regime. The ex-secret police marching shoulder to shoulder with KOD and PO have shown Poles that the former regime truly was a post-communisi construct and enabled former PZPR operatives to survive and thrive while their victims barely scraped by or even suffered poverty.
Harry    
21 Dec 2016  #11
The current PiS government will call an election just before the money runs out...

The money runs out next year.

The ex-secret police

No need to ask how you recognised them.

their victims barely scraped by or even suffered poverty.

Yes, the victims of the secret police barely scrape by, while other people who somehow weren't locked up for even a moment during martial law but were instead left to go about their lives live in multi-million zloty villas in leafy suburbs, I do hope that PIS under their next leader do something about that, obviously they can't under The Dear Leader Chairman Kaczynski.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,307    
21 Dec 2016  #12
Only a fool lives on borrowed money...

Actually, every government lives on borrowed money and the PiS government is no exception ...
mafketis 17 | 6,756    
21 Dec 2016  #13
Consumption is growing, buying power has increased, production is growing, unemployment is at its lowest level in 25 years

In other words, PiS was lying through its teeth abou a ruined economy. There's no way to turn around a ruined economy in a little over a year.

Have they thought to thank PO for the sound fundamentals?

Didn't think so.....
OP Wincig 2 | 151    
21 Dec 2016  #14
Only a fool lives on borrowed money...

The money runs out next year.

Actually, every government lives on borrowed money and the PiS government is no exception ...

Ziemowit is right. Poland has to date been rather more thrifty than other EU governments; its debt/gdp is only 52%, whereas for example Germany is at 71% and the UK at 88%.. If Poland brought its indebtness on par with Germany (71%), that means an additional 19 pts of deficit, which given Poland's GDP of ca 500 bn$ means another whopping 100 bn$ could be made available. Of course, it would be ridiculous to spend all this on a 500+ type programme, but it shows that no, the money has not run out!!
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
21 Dec 2016  #15
major sleaze scandal emerges.

Those were Tusk's speciality!
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
21 Dec 2016  #16
a ruined economy in a little over a year

Only if a patritoic, people-friendly, good-change party like PiS are at the helm who have the Polish nation's wellbeing at heart and do not feel obliged to cater to foreign-interest groups for the hefty kickbacks.

in a little over a year

cms 9 | 1,287    
21 Dec 2016  #17
Well people will lend you money if they like you and trust you. An important element of trusting a country to buy their bonds is strong institutions and a transparent budgeting process. At the moment it is not sure if Poland has a legal budget for next year.

Actually the Polish debt ratio has already increased to 57 percent - Germany's has also increased. But to hold the UK up as a role model is insane - reducing that deficit should be one of the UKs priorities, but they have got sidetracked by idiots.

Poland's debt position is extremely concerning - investment is falling, gdp growth is far lower than expectations and the zloty is very volatile - which means people outside Poland may only wish to lend in dollar or euro.

I think a likely scenario is some internal PiS issue before the end of the 4 year term - they are greedy and not very smart. Not sure what might trigger it - Morawiecki and Kaczynski falling out, Macierewicz doing something really nuts, someone getting caught with their pants down or their snouts in the trough. But would be amazed if such low grade politicians can last the full term.
Ironside 47 | 9,498    
21 Dec 2016  #18
Any parents considering having more children on the basis of receiving the extra funds are not being very farsighted

Chemikiem we're talking about people who couldn't afford to have children or more than one ----comparing them to France is compering apples and oranges.

Have they thought to thank PO for the sound fundamentals?

You mean thank them for theft?

500 + WILL NOT make people born more children

Initial research says you're wrong. To be sure we need to wait.
Chemikiem 5 | 1,473    
21 Dec 2016  #19
we're talking about people who couldn't afford to have children or more than one ----comparing them to France is compering apples and oranges.

Scroll back up Iron, It was Wincig replying to sawii who was saying that the birth rate in France is likely higher due to the country's tax and allowance system. I was pointing out that Poland has only just got started down that road and birth rates might increase should more allowances and incentives to have children be put into place in the future, but only time would tell.

I am actually agreeing with you. At the present time it is like comparing apples and oranges.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
21 Dec 2016  #20
birth rate in France

It is higher because N. African Muslims breed prolifically and raise the overall average.
OP Wincig 2 | 151    
21 Dec 2016  #21
That is wrong.. unless you show me a link or data to back up what you say
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
21 Dec 2016  #22
That is wrong

The fetility rate and family size of Muslims in France and elsewhere is greater than that of the white population.
muslimstatistics.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/pew-fertility-rate-for-muslims-and-non-muslims-in-europe
OP Wincig 2 | 151    
23 Dec 2016  #23
Come on P3, even you can see that the site you provided a link to ('muslimstatistics.wordpress.com') is of the same ilk than Pravda or RT today? A simple glance at the comments is enough ..
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
23 Dec 2016  #24
PiS government

The oppositon's goal has been crystal clear for some time: to find some way to overthrow the government and worm their way back into the perky-cushy-comfy halls of power. The budget thing was the latest attempt. Petru I think it was even openly mentioned that if the budget is not aodpted on time, THE PRESIDENT MAY DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT.

Meanwhile, as a result of their poor support figures, they are trying to provoke a physical crackdown on the opposition which they believe will make more Poles believe their phony-baloney about creeping fascism and suchlike. Recently they have even resorted to physical abuse of government officials and PiS MPs, shouting them down, blaring horns into their ears, poking, shoving and tussling as well as chasing away the speaker of hte Sejm, disrupting palriamentary procdeedings, occuping parliament and holding MPs and government offficials captive in the building by physically blocking exists. It's only half a step away from Komorowskis's "bonking the government over the head with a wooden plank" or Wałęsa's helping cabinet members jump out of upper-storey URM windows.

The bottom line is that the OPPOSITION HAD NEVER ACCEPTED THE DEMOCRATIC VERDICT OF THE POLISH PEOPLE, fallaciously believing that despite their elitism, favouritism and scamsterism they would be allowed to rule forever.
mafketis 17 | 6,756    
23 Dec 2016  #25
The oppositon's goal has been crystal clear for some time: to find some way to overthrow the government

Overthrow? Drama much? No opposition (including PiS's many years i opposition) is required or expected to further the governing party's aims.
But the hysterical drama queens of PiS cannot take any challenge to their brutal destruction of the vestiges of rule of law and start crying about persecution. Pathetic they are.

OPPOSITION HAD NEVER ACCEPTED THE DEMOCRATIC VERDICT OF THE POLISH PEOPLE

Neither did PiS. The POLISH PUBLIC VOTED FOR A GOVERNMENT LED BY BEATA SZYDŁO AND NOT BY THE PARTY PREZES.

If PiS really believed in democracy then JK would but out of the decision making process and simply fulfill his duties as a back bencher.
Ziemowit 12 | 3,307    
23 Dec 2016  #26
The POLISH PUBLIC VOTED FOR A GOVERNMENT LED BY BEATA SZYDŁO

And there is no other government now in Poland except the one led by Beata Szydło!
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
23 Dec 2016  #27
rule of law

Occupying official buildings, drowning out normal proceedings by shoutuing, chanting and general mayhem, forcing the speaker of the Sejm out of his seat and rummaging through the papers in his desk, holding government officials hostage, blocking official cars, physically accosting MPs and ministers -- that is the rule of law accoridng to PO? There is no law requiring a party leader to be PM. When SLD won in the '90s they put a PSL guy in the PM's seat. Again in the 2000s the PM was not the leader Miller but his subordinate Belka. PiS-bashers lieke Everyone knows Kaczyński is not fit to be PM, he is not PM material and feels crushed when bombarded by the problems, contingencies, complaints and general hassle of day-to-day governance. That is the only reason the vicious non-constructive oppositon want him in the PM's seat to compromise himself. Not everyone is good at everything. He is at his best as a strategist, sitting on a back bench with a broad ovrerview of things and seeing who, where and why is the best way to go.

The constitutional crisis has fizzled out but the nit-pickers will always find something to attack. When the parliamentary crisis runs its course, rest assured that the Gang of Three will come up with yet anotehr pretext to rant, disrupt and destabilize. That's what they do. They are not interested in what's good for the county but what's good for them and that is brimnging back the status quo of yesterday's perks, prestige and power. The contry be damned, it's us the elite that count.
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
23 Dec 2016  #28
Pravda or RT

So does the Wincig Gazette claim French Caucasians have a higher birth rate than Muslimatic Arabs?
Polonius3 1,000 | 12,467    
24 Dec 2016  #29
PO?

Schetyna, Petru, Kopacz, Kijowski and the entire losers' associaton are acting like pouty little brats in a sand pit. "We can't get our way (i.e. re-seize power!), so we'll spite you all by forgoing Chrsitmas and staging a sit-in in the Sejm," they seem to be saying. Except that the whole Polish nation is just tapping their forehead at that pathetic display of mean-spirited ire and resentment during this holy season.
mafketis 17 | 6,756    
24 Dec 2016  #30
the entire losers' associaton are acting like pouty little brats in a sand pit

I do realize that positions of principal are hard for you to understand (you've already admitted you care nothing for rule of law).

that the whole Polish nation is just tapping their forehead

Polonius3 =/= "whole Polish nation", what is it? Over 50 % of Poles think that PiS has "weakened democracy" in Poland? Or is democracy another principal you care nothing for?


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