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What will drive Poland after 2020 - when Eu funding dries up?


After2020
8 Dec 2016 #1
When speaking to Patriotic Poles they will often highlight the strength of Poland's... how it was the only member of the EU not to go into recession, during the economic crisis.Anyone with an inkling of economics or understanding of Poland will tell you, EU funding was the great separator. Poland has been the number one recipient of EU funds from all the accession countries. Now that 2020 is fast approaching and EU construction funds will grind to a halt - what does the future have in store for Poland?
Ziemowit 13 | 4,086
8 Dec 2016 #2
You mean Poland will perish after 2020?

EU funding was the great separator

I don't get it, to be honest. You mean the EU funding separated us form something or what?
Chemikiem 6 | 2,159
8 Dec 2016 #3
You mean the EU funding separated us form something or what?

I think he means that were it not for the large amount of EU funds that Poland received, which did contribute greatly to the infrastructure, the country would have been in the same situation as other EU countries in 2008 onwards, in recession.
OP After2020
8 Dec 2016 #4
Ziemowit, lets look at this in the context of real. The Marshall Plan for European recovery was $150 billion in current money, the aid package to Poland from the EU by 2020 will be in excess of $300 billion. Now that's a lot of money for Polish infrastructure and trickle down. After 2020 when the funds stop, how will Poland support growth in real terms, instead of artificial terms of measuring GDP as the indicator. To offer an analogy Poland is like the student being supported by the wealthy parent ( EU funds) through education. You have got the Bachelors,Masters and PHD all paid for by the bank of mum and dad. So how are you going to put that out there to work for you and earn an income to support yourself...
johnny reb 23 | 4,535
8 Dec 2016 #5
the aid package to Poland from the EU by 2020 will be in excess of $300 billion.

'aid' is the key word here.

You have got the Bachelors,Masters and PHD all paid for by the bank

The 'other guys' money.............Classic example of Socialism

After 2020 when the funds stop, how will Poland support growth

Socialism works great until the other guys money runs out.
How/when will Poland pay back that $300 billion should be the question.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,086
8 Dec 2016 #6
The Marshall Plan for European recovery was $150 billion in current money, the aid package to Poland from the EU by 2020 will be in excess of $300 billion.

There are two things here:
150 cannot be compared to 300, even if 150 is in current money. The volume of wealth in the respective regions (Western Europe and Poland) were totally different after the World War II and in 2004 when Poland joined the union. So, the comparison should me made in terms of percentages of the wealth rather than in bare figures.

What is your source for the figures? Is $300 billion a gross or a net figure (that is minus the Polish contribution to the EU budget)?

How/when will Poland pay back that $300 billion should be the question.

I doubt if Poland has been obliged to pay back that money at all.
Ironside 49 | 10,316
8 Dec 2016 #7
lets look at this in the context of real

Let's!
Up to this day those founds "given" to Poland amount to about 90 cents per head.

Do you want that 90 cents back? I can give you my share of the EU money. However there is a catch, with every 90 cents whoever is getting that money has to match it cent for cent. Meaning if you get a grant of 100$ for this or that you need to match it with 100$ from your own pocket. However when it comes to politicians and institution they do not have their own money to much that 100$ they are obliged to borrow it. As you have guessed in the European banks - that paying interest and so forth.

However that means that somebody put me in the red without my consent and that sucks!

----

Now that's a lot of money

dude, what money nowadays? printed pieces of paper, Poland could have print those money herself or cut off all redundant investments and pay for the vital infrastructure herself.

----

To offer an analogy

That is a crappy analogy. I offer you a better one Poland is like family whose father (or mother) is an addict and a drunk, and the EU is like a financial shark on a make.

---

how it was the only member of the EU not to go into recession, during the economic crisis.

Dude so called economic crisis is simply a crash of banking and fincial system which is rotten anyway and that was but a first warning and the worst things are to come.

Poland is run on a low income economy. When economic growth supported by 'free 'credits dried up in leading economies of the world. Poland wasn't affected due to her shyyty economical state/ It went over Poland's head.

---

in recession.

Poland is in the constant recession. That is the clue.
OP After2020
8 Dec 2016 #8
So to get back on topic, after 2020 will Poland introduce a policy of PPP's or forge stronger ties with USA and become a base for US interests in Europe.Just like Israel,South Korea,Japan and Turkey before them.A US alliance will of course secure Poland's Eastern border and encourage US FDI. The European project is on its back foot and surely can't exist in its present format, so what options do Poland have pre Euro break up?
cms 9 | 1,271
8 Dec 2016 #9
Well from the tone of your language I guess you think that Britain or Germany are Mum and Dad and we are weak and innocent children here ?

Poland was the largest recipient of EU aid, but that is obvious - it is the same size as all the other 2004 countries added together. On a per capita basis or percent of GNI then all 3 baltic countries and Hungary have received more, and yet they had deep recessions in 2009 and 2010. Poland did not, so it is not QED that the EU aid was the only factor in Poland's relative economic success in the region. Part of that is down to a strong internal market, hands off management by the govt in the 2000s, and considerable investment in manufacturing and value added services.

What will happen after 2020 ? Probably something similar to what happens now - higher spec exports the 80m rich people next door and lower spec exports plus agriculture to the 250m in the east. The current govt is maybe not helping matters in terms of investment but lots of economic indicators are still quite strong.

Will it become a base for US FDI ? In what sector ? If its manufacturing well there is already a big place just south of the USA, right where Trump wants to build a wall. if its services then maybe in IT and banking a bit but in retail, real estate, fmcg etc then US companies could not compete here with Germans and French for many reasons.

it is not inevitable that the EU will fail - it has many successes to its name and the strong support of much of the sensible and educated populations of the 27 remaining states. if Britain wants to leave that will be a little local difficulty but it will not bring the house down.
OP After2020
9 Dec 2016 #10
CMS, I actually find it offensive that you consider democratic voters in favour of Brexit to be less educated - small mindedness on your part. Sweden,Denmark, The Netherlands,Spain.Italy,France,Germany,Hungary,Greece all countries which have main stream parties running on a EU opt out. As for the EU project being on the back foot,even Brussels admits there has to be change in the structure the current format is outdated.France one of the architects of the EU have two candidates Fillon and Le Pen - Fillon describes the current format of the EU as useless and inefficient, Le Pen wants an immediate referendum on the EU if she wins. CMS yes you are correct Brussels is doing a wonderful job - Back in your box you troll.
cms 9 | 1,271
9 Dec 2016 #11
As discussed on another thread there is a high correlation between lower education levels and brexit voters - links were provided. Democracy means their lack of understanding has the same weight as more informed views. Britain has to deal with the consequences and they can get on with it - though it seems like that article 50 letter is stuck somewhere in the post.

In the countries you mentioned then yes a rag tag of racists, loonies and opportunists are pickng up votes from the gullible and the geriatric, but it will not be enough to end the EU.

Maybe you would register here before you call other people trolls ?
nothanks - | 640
9 Dec 2016 #12
- All of Europe will take an economic hit

- Polska will absorb foreigners

- We will not yet perish
TicTacToe
9 Dec 2016 #13
Yes, because everyone knows. Going to university, studying hard, gaining thousands in debt and getting no job at the end of it is a true sign of intelligence isn't it here in the UK.

Seems all is not good getting that old education and making informed choices. It seems those thick uneducated people made a thick uneducated choice and went to university, gained debt and no job. Wow!!. So inspiring.
OP After2020
9 Dec 2016 #14
As for going to university and not getting a job. maybe we could ask the 75% of university grads in Spain,their opinion of the EU. Here is the fundamental fact, there are trillions of euros of debt which can never be paid back. In a non-feudal system, one in which the banks were not in control of the EU kleptocrats, then this fact would be recognized and acted upon, as in all debt ridden economies something like 50% of the debt would be written off in one fell swoop, all the banks whose assets had just been wiped out would be declared insolvent and liquidated, the remaining debt would be sized to the economic surplus of each debtor nation, and a new, decentralized banking sector of dozens of strictly limited, smaller banks would be established.

The EU has all the markings of a Neo-Feudal Kleptocracy serving its Banker Lords. CMS would have us believe that all voters who oppose the European project are illiterate irrespective of their nationality. Maybe CMS could join the European youth corp, another brilliant idea of Juncker to create his own army of 100,000 Volunteers, history warns us about little men with napoleon syndrome setting up their private youth armies ' europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-3062_en.htm'
cms 9 | 1,271
9 Dec 2016 #15
Yes, small banks that nobody would put their money in. So they would have no money to lend out. So if you wanted to own a car or a house you would have to stash it under your mattress and hope nobody steals it. That sounds far better than the current system of regulated banks owned by their shareholders and able to move their capital to where it is most needed.

According to my first google hit the unemployment rate for Spanish graduates is 14 percent. Not sure where your 75 percent comes from.
OP After2020
9 Dec 2016 #16
CMS, are you a Monnet professor ? the current youth unemployment aged below 25 in Spain is above is above 40%, at its height in 2013 the rate was above 56%. In 2013 75% of graduates leaving university could not find a job in Spain, this began the so called 'Spanish brain drain' an estimated 100,000 Spanish graduates left Spain in 2013 to seek work abroad,this trend has continued year on year. I would prefer to put my money in a small bank that was fully capitalised, than putting it into a International brand bank that was leveraged to the hilt, don't hit me with the ' bolloxk' of European banks are capitalized at 20%, if the stress tests on banks in the EU are carried out in full. The challenge that large financial institutions now have is to focus on maintaining their solvency ratios and de-risking and simplifying their businesses. Big banks don't want to be big banks anymore...
OP After2020
10 Dec 2016 #17
CMS, according to the stats the economy in Poland is performing at the lowest level it has been in the last three years focus-economics.com/countries/poland
cms 9 | 1,271
10 Dec 2016 #18
Yes, I am aware of that - it has nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the current government, whose unpredictable interference in several key sectors is discouraging investment and harming the zloty and the stock market. However growth is still postive, household incomes are going up and unemployment is still quite low by historical standards.

No, I am not a Monnet professor and I dont work for a bank. I pay tax here, run my business across several central european countries and employ people here and raise my family here. I don't have much interest in what is happening in Spain frankly and not much in Britain either. What I do know is that in this part of the world then EU membership is giving people a standard of living and an economic perspective that they never had before, as well as peace and stability.

The brits have taken their decision and I wish them luck with it, but you seem to want to validation that the crazy idea of Brexit is correct and will spread to other countries. That is unlikely, so why not just get your government to have the balls to send that artcile 50 letter and float off in your own direction (and you will probably need to work out what to do with Scotland and Ireland first). Then when you have your paradise outside the EU you can open and run whatever kind of banks you want and no yound people will ever be out of a job.

enjoy your weekend - I will let some other people continue this debate
peterweg 37 | 2,321
10 Dec 2016 #19
, I actually find it offensive that you consider democratic voters in favour of Brexit to be less educated -

Brexit voters did so because they cannot understand the cost and complexity invoved, hence by definition they are less intelligent.

******* thick in my assesment.
TicTacToe
10 Dec 2016 #20
Explain the complexities and expenses, let's see your intelligence at work.
OP After2020
10 Dec 2016 #21
Peterweg, maybe you should consider your own level of IQ, this thread is focused on Poland after 2020,how the growth can continue... I will make my final point on the UK opt out vote,in excess of 17,000,000 people voted to opt out of the EU,i would suggest anyone claiming all 17 million voters to be illiterate/uneducated maybe have a alternative agenda.Every time the vote does not go in the favour of the socialists, the Alt left movement comes out in force calling the winning electorates Nazis,thick,uneducated,ill informed etc etc etc. The Brexit vote was a democratic vote, Trumps victory was a democratic vote - get over it - you lost - move on. CMS,now we are back on track - in this part of the world EU membership has given a section of the population,more wealth than they could have imagined, especially due to cronyism in PO, who could have imagined in 2004 that by 2014 Donald Tusk a Polish national would be president of the European council... Fast forward to 2016, there is a war on the border of Poland, Poland has seen over 600,000 Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum, a fact no one in the European media or Brussels seems to be reporting. Due to Russian sanctions over 8,000 small Polish businesses have ceased trading, Polish private debt is soaring,Polish foreign owned banks are being refinanced behind closed doors, when you speak to Poles outside of the big cities,they will tell you they have never had it so bad, their children have had to leave Poland to seek work in other EU countries as there is no work for them at home. Now here is the kicker CMS has a business and pays tax in Poland, he exports his service to several other central European countries and he is doing alright thank you very much, he doesn't give two hoots about what is going on in Poland ,in real terms,as he lives in his ivory tower. CMS you are part of the problem NOT the solution. PIS inherited a very bad set of books from PO, in the current social and political climate they are going to have to make some very difficult decisions to get Poland out of the coming murky waters post 2020. The fact that the EU in its current format is on a knife's edge only makes the situation more difficult. Remember PO balanced the books by nationalising private pension funds to the tune of $35 billion, now that tricks gone.
jon357 63 | 15,214
11 Dec 2016 #22
17 million voters to be illiterate/uneducated

Just a far higher proportion of them than those who chose more intelligently to remain. Which we probably will anyway.

Poland has seen over 600,000 Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum,

Very shortly Ukrainans will have visa free access to Poland. Rightly so.

PIS inherited

PiS inherited a growing economy which they are making a mess of.
stanno
11 Dec 2016 #23
Polish people will find their jobs taken by Ukrainians, when they have to go back to Poland after Brexit. What interesting times we live in.
Weg04
12 Dec 2016 #24
EU citizens will have the right to stay in the UK. That's agreed by all parties.
Atch 17 | 3,224
12 Dec 2016 #25
No it isn't. Nothing has been agreed. People who satisfy the requirements for permanent residence in the UK will of course have the right to remain. Other than that, no official guarantees have been given. And what do you mean by all parties? Do you mean the other member states of the EU and the UK? All of that has yet to be hammered out.
dolnoslask 5 | 2,889
12 Dec 2016 #26
yet to be hammered out.

Along with double taxation agreements for expats, plenty of Brits who have retired to Europe might suddenly find that they can no longer afford to live abroad anymore.
terri 1 | 1,665
12 Dec 2016 #27
Questions are being raised in the House of Commons today regarding EU nationals currently living in England and what will happen to them. There is a newly formed group (3 million something) which is handing a letter/petition to the House. Details probably on google.

It is likely that long-term unemployed and other non-working EU people may be asked to go and claim benefits in their home countries.

The other problem is also that all EU countries must make it easy for UK people to visit for holidays otherwise their economy and businesses which rely on tourism might suffer.
Harry
12 Dec 2016 #28
Poland has seen over 600,000 Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum, a fact no one in the European media or Brussels seems to be reporting.

One would imagine that they are not reporting it due to the very simple fact that the media try to report about things that are actually happening and Poland has very simply not seen anything like that number of Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum. The actual number of applications Poland has received from Ukrainian refugees seeking asylum 2,253 in the whole of 2014 and 2,061 by mid-November 2015 (of which a grand total of two were granted asylum).
terri 1 | 1,665
12 Dec 2016 #29
re the Ukrainian refugees.
What can you expect from a country where the prime Minister (B.Szydlo) herself does not recognise the difference between a refugee, or a legally employed worker as was evident from a speech some time ago.
Harry
12 Dec 2016 #30
I'm sure that most PIS MPs could recognise the difference between a refugee and their cleaners. Oh, sorry, you said legally employed workers. Anyway, I'm sure that the PMP (prime minister puppet) can tell the difference between refugees and economic migrants from Ukraine; however, her speech was trying to claim that Poland does far more for refugees than it actually does and thus Poland should be exempted from the requirement to help tens of thousand of refugees from a country which helped tens of thousand of refugees from Poland when Poland was last suffering from war. Sadly I fear that this refusal by the PiSlamic State to play by the rules of Europe will be reflected in the amount of money that the EU gives to Poland in the next round of EU funding.


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