Cameron's EU reform good for Poland

At the moment, the Euro makes German exports artificially cheap. As German wages are relatively low, despite the high know-how behind its products, German wares have a competitive advantage. As soon as the Euro is gone, the new German currency will rise in value, while the Polish Złoty will be depreciated. This means that, at this point, German wares will be too expensive, while Poland will not be able to afford any imports from Germany anymore. The German economy will see a massive downturn, probably a collapse of some firms, and a steep rise in unemployment.

As an additional problem, the end of the Euro will probably not come in an ordered fashion, but quite suddenly. At that moment, much of the trade surplus of Germany and the loans given, which both are counted as assets nowadays, will have to be written down as a loss. This means that the means of the government to compensate for the economic downturn will be very limited in such an event.

Long-term prospects are different, but the general level of the economy will be lower than today. Germany's prospects are not very good anyway, as it has structural deficits in its economic branches.

And those dreaming of the end of the EU never seem to have a good idea how to replace that cash. It seems to be all based on mythical ideas that the brightest people in Poland couldn't figure out between 1990-2004.

Recently I had heated arguments wit my German boss who is an ardent Merkelist, and he actually yelled at me for voting PiS :D I explained to him that government has a duty to protect the borders and work for their own population, he told me that in his opinion Germany or Poland no longer exists, that we are now only "Europeans" and that Europe belongs to everyone. He also purports that 300,000 new employees are needed every year and the millions unemployed should suck it up. And I am beginning to understand why the elite is so foaming with anger. First, they think that they have already won a war, that the EU is irreversible and that East Germany, Poland, Czech etc are property of the West. I wonder what happens when the first seriously suggest that we could simple end the contracts, and that nothing is absolutely irreversible.

Second, businessmen like my boss are absolutely terrfied of a time when companies have to apply for skilled workers, where they are no longer in absolute control, can no longer pick the best people and dictate them to sh!ty jobs.

He also shouted that the unification was a mistake because the East Germans are "ungrateful" (in East Germany support for national conservatives is strongest), and that Poles, Hungarians etc should be made to pay back the subventions. Many West Germans are like that, I told him if this is so the East could still secede from Germany, together with the states that are on the same line. I mean Germany doesnt exist anyway, that is not such a big deal.

Perhaps that's really not such a bad idea that we simply split that country again, one zone for the Merkelist and her Syrians and feminists, the other for Poles, the unemployed and the East Germans, and see who fares better ;)

Even if only ONE German, most interesting!

I'm off to Austria next week, can't wait for some serious German Polish bar banter.