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Poland braces for economic slowdown


Bieganski 17 | 901
23 Dec 2012 #1
Proud of having been the only EU member state to keep growing as the crisis torpedoed economies across the bloc, Poland is bracing for a slowdown in 2013 as exports suffer and austerity measures bite.

The country's official growth forecast for next year is 2.2 percent.

"Growth in 2013 is more likely to be 1.4 percent. We can't see any factors that would allow us to forecast anything better," said Konrad Soszynski of the bank BGZ, part of Dutch group Rabobank.

London-based Capital Economics is gloomier still, forecasting 1.0 percent.

au.finance.yahoo/news/poland-braces-economic-slowdown-161512439.html

Only last month Britain's Bank of England revised downward it's forecast for the UK economy to about 1.0 percent as well.

Bank of England cuts UK growth forecast for 2013

The Bank of England has cut its growth forecast for next year to about 1% from nearer 2%, and said recovery will be "slow and protracted".

It now thinks that the economy will not get back to pre-crisis levels until 2015, two years later than it previously predicted.

The Bank also believes inflation will remain higher for longer.

All economies run in cycles and 2013 will certainly be an interesting year.

Will Poles continue to leave Poland if prospects at home decline further but the situation remains no better elsewhere? Will Poland in turn be able to attract foreign economic migrants or will their numbers slow and will those who came to Poland and enjoyed the headier days of economic growth over the past few years up sticks for greener pastures in other parts of the world?
Cali - | 56
23 Dec 2012 #2
They gotta get rid of some "dead wood," which is still present in Poland's econ. Lotta noise made by PIS and its sister party (nationalists) ain't helping much, expecially if you see riots in Warsaw and hoolignas battling the riot police. The trade union, whatever its political motives, has to go as a political body and stick to labor issues. Another "Polish flood" to the UK. Possible. But there ain't jobs for someone w/ a college degree in Polish, History, et cetera, as had the first wave, which was very skilled. The Brits will have to come up w/ some scheme to keep, though, an educated tide, but, sadly, skilless and pretty much useless for the UK labor market.
kcharlie 2 | 165
23 Dec 2012 #3
Poland managed to avoid the crisis by massively increasing its national debt in the last four or so years. Comrade Gierek must be turning in his grave. He is fondly remembered by many as the prime factor in the glory days of communism in the 70s after borrowing a paltry 20 bn dollars and massively improving the quality of life in Poland (albeit temporarily), and now they've managed to rack up 100 bn dollars extra debt in a couple of years for little apparent gain.

But debt can only go so far in papering over the cracks, so a slowdown or a recession is likely inevitable. Let's hope it won't be too severe and the overall trajectory over the medium term will still be up instead of down.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #4
Poland managed to avoid the crisis by massively increasing its national debt in the last four or so years.

Everynoe is doing that and from the econ. standpoint is not bad and a such should be used (Keynesian, spell?) when the country's econ is heading south. The gov't needs to pump in money when the private sector is "taking a break." The question is: how you manage and how you spend that money...Look at Greece, they spent all on consumption and corruption - their roads are worse than in Poland now...
OP Bieganski 17 | 901
24 Dec 2012 #5
I see Britain declining as a popular destination for Polish job seekers if the UK economy continues to stagnate for the next few years. The large influx of Poles into Britain over the past years certainly helped both the British and Polish economies. But this economic stimulation from the free movement of labor had to run out of steam sooner or later.

Poland is in a peculiar position at the moment. EU cohesion funds, which did much to keep Poland out of the red during the crisis, are inconveniently up for negotiation at a time when other EU countries continue to struggle and Poland now faces its own slowdown.
kcharlie 2 | 165
24 Dec 2012 #6
The question is: how you manage and how you spend that money...

I agree with you that Keynesian economics can provide a welcome boost. The problem I see is that it looks like Poland went down the Gordon Brown route - racking up debt when times are good and spending it on bureaucrats and handouts. Now, Poland's been stingy with the handouts, but they have managed to add some 150,000 new bureaucrats to the Polish state's machinery in the last few years, so it can't have all been good value for money.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
24 Dec 2012 #7
Everynoe is doing that and from the econ. standpoint is not bad and a such should be used (Keynesian, spell?) when the country's econ is heading south. The gov't needs to pump in money when the private sector is "taking a break." The question is: how you manage and how you spend that money...Look at Greece, they spent all on consumption and corruption - their roads are worse than in Poland now...

Keynesian economics = using money EARNED by the state while the sun was shining to make hay when it rains. His idea was not about borrowing and borrowing and running up debts at all. Running up debt is madness.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #8
I see Britain declining as a popular destination for Polish job seekers if the UK economy continues to stagnate for the next few years.

Hey Bieg,
Don't think so. Why? Most Poles have no clue when it comes to econ. Even it the facts are true, say, no jobs in the UK, they might blame their friends for not "being friends" or blame the Polish gov't for making up bad stories about the West as way back in People's Republic - sometime the regime was saying the truth about the West's poor econ, but people didn't believe. So, my friend, won't happen: Poles will keep coming to the UK whaterever the news!
kcharlie 2 | 165
24 Dec 2012 #9
I see Britain declining as a popular destination for Polish job seekers if the UK economy continues to stagnate for the next few years.

That's only likely if the Polish economy continues to outperform the British economy in terms of growth. I'm not convinced. If Poland suffers a significant economic decline, I imagine people will continue on leaving in droves in search for greener pastures abroad.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #10
That's only likely if the Polish economy continues to outperform the British economy in terms of growth.

Sorry ain't gonna happen! The UK went thru some hard times when the real estate market went south...Did Poles leave as "all experts" were saying and Poland was doing well (growing). Nope. Why? Because of welfare and other socio-econ factors where Poles were still better off than heading back home.
kcharlie 2 | 165
24 Dec 2012 #11
I wasn't saying the Poles might leave. I was suggesting the influx might slow if the Polish economy continues to outperform the British. And I seriously doubt that.
Ant63 11 | 403
24 Dec 2012 #12
The large influx of Poles into Britain over the past years certainly helped both the British and Polish economies.

I can see how it helped the Polish economy but I really can't see how it helped the British economy. I am not being difficult, I just would like to understand.
kcharlie 2 | 165
24 Dec 2012 #13
I agree. The Poles just undercut British workers' wages. I guess some companies posted greater profits as a result of a reduced wage bill. But that's about it.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #14
managed to add some 150,000 new bureaucrats to the Polish state's machinery

Yep, that's what I said earlier, they gotta get rid of some dead wood. And it sounds to me like Greece too - lotta red tape! But, also, in Poland and Greece, trade unions (this is not the same Solidarity as way back) are very strong/corrupt and very malicious, expecially if your legal system has no bite. Here, e.g., you go to the judge and get an injunction, meaning the union can't go on strike first and then talk. My understanding about Poland and Greece is that you start riots first and then talk. Again, get rid of dead wood, meaning public employees and sell off public entities that bleed, eg, LOT.

I can see how it helped the Polish economy but I really can't see how it helped the British economy. I am not being difficult, I just would like to understand.

Very simple: it has kept (hope still does) the inflation rate low, as most Poles were performing services (eg, plumbing, remodeling, warehousing, house cleaning, gardening, et cetera) at a lower cost than what their Brit competition what've charaged. That extra saved pound ended up in your wallet and now you go to Costco and get that Polish dog and a slice of pizza! Before the Polish coming to the UK, you had to stick to fish n chips! The same sit here: I need to clean the carpet, so I call around and go w/ a Mexi guy (I know he employes illegals, but I dont give a rip cause it costs me less than going to Joe Schmoe Carpet). See now I'm saving 60 bucks. What am I gonna do w/ it? Spend on my kid, go to a ball park (baseball), etc. So although I ain't getting humps in my paychecks (even if so, that's like <2%), which might cause inflation, but my living standard hasn't change that much becasue of a lower service labor cost.
OP Bieganski 17 | 901
24 Dec 2012 #15
I can see how it helped the Polish economy but I really can't see how it helped the British economy. I am not being difficult, I just would like to understand.

Often migrants will repatriate some of their incomes back to their native homelands so yes Poland's economy would see the benefit from this when Poles who go abroad still have ties back home.

Although we frequently hear bigoted exaggerations that Poles went to Britain just to claim benefits the fact remains that many took jobs that were vacant and in demand. They were in a broad range of occupations be it plumbing, manufacturing, agriculture, finance and IT.

Even if Poles took lower wages than the British they were competing with just by taking a job and earning an income would itself stimulate economic activity. Poles working in Britain need to spend part of their earnings on local essentials (rent, utilities, food, perhaps petrol, etc.) as well as saving up and spending it on wants (nicer clothes, holidays, entertainment, etc).

One moan I often heard was that the influx of Poles sustained higher levels of rents or home prices in an otherwise sagging British economy. But if you were a landlord, seller, or estate agent then you wouldn't mind this at all.

Of course the British taxman enjoyed collecting VAT and council tax from working Poles. This is revenue for government coffers which is eventually released back into the economy for government funded programs or other projects which often requires the acquisition of goods and services form other sectors of the UK economy.

Now the levels of economic stimulus from Poles living and working in Britain wouldn't be uniform across that country. But there would have been none had Poles not gone to the UK. I haven't come across any information yet to suggest that native Brits or other immigrant groups could have easily displaced and replaced the Poles in the competitive market place.
MoOli 9 | 484
24 Dec 2012 #16
Often migrants will repatriate some of their incomes back to their native homelands so yes Poland's economy would see the benefit from this when Poles who go abroad still have ties back home.

Thanks god America still has visa for poles...imagine otherwise......Even pumping gas gets you 2300$ a week and the jersey shore where Sandy hit.....they sure can use Polish construction workers.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #17
Even pumping gas gets you 2300$ a week

Hey Mo,

Whatchya smoking? That much money just by pumping gas? Sh.t!

Let's put it this way: you'd always go to a lower bidder (remodeling, gardner) and it wouldn't matter if he's Polish or Mexi. Again, don't smoke that sh..t!
MoOli 9 | 484
24 Dec 2012 #18
Whatchya smoking? That much money just by pumping gas? Sh.t!

OOPs! sorry dude I meant was month Typo error sorry!
legend 3 | 664
24 Dec 2012 #19
Money and materialism isnt the end of the world.
How about lives? Increase the birthrate.

Quit the EU before they start forcing 1 million Muslims inside Poland per year.
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #20
Quit the EU before they start forcing 1 million Muslims inside Poland per year.

Legend,

That's not a bad idea: Poland needs a little bit of mixing up. Too many blonds!!! But I would take it easy w/ muslims.
scottie1113 7 | 898
24 Dec 2012 #21
Keynesian economics = using money EARNED by the state while the sun was shining to make hay when it rains. His idea was not about borrowing and borrowing and running up debts at all. Running up debt is madness.

True that running up debt is madness, but what country doesn't have a deficit? And how does a state/country earn money other than by taxation? Oh, I know. They can operate an airline like LOT or railway systems. How well has that worked out, either for Poland or the US-see AMTRAK.
pawian 161 | 9,971
24 Dec 2012 #22
Poland managed to avoid the crisis by massively increasing its national debt in the last four or so years.

The amount of the debt doesn`t count, only the ability to pay it counts. Gierek was unable to pay and that`s why he was toppled. Also its successors, Jaruzelski and others couldn`t cope with it and the debt rose to 45 billion throughout 80s.

Paying 100 billion today isn`t a problem. Do you know what reserves Poland has? Over 100 billion dollars.
kondzior 9 | 954
24 Dec 2012 #23
Money and materialism isnt the end of the world. How about lives? Increase the birthrate. Quit the EU before they start forcing 1 million Muslims inside Poland per year.

I don't see that much of the the problem in declining birthrates, to be honest. Fewer people means not only less economic output, but also less consumption - a population of 30 million can be just as prosperous if not more than 60 million.

All we need to do it to look up to Japan, that has similarly low fertility like Western Europe, but they're not getting replaced because there are no immigrants in Japan to replace them.

Natural population decline isn't trouble free. There will be a relatively small number of workers supporting a relatively large number of retirees.

I doubt anyone would have to starve, but somebody's benefits might have to get cut.

However, as we all know, in Western Europe, Leftist policies managed to ruin this natural process by interfering in the demographic structure of European countries, bringing in millions of immigrants from the poorest, most war-torn countries on the planet, placing them on a pedestal, refusing to arrest/prosecute/sentence those of them who commit crimes, and generally coddling their degenerate/barbaric behavior as much as possible. Leftists are truly an unstoppable force of decline and stupidity that seeks to bring death and ruin to all, who do or do not vote it into power.

Declining birthrates among Europeans is not a bad thing. Declining birthrates among Europeans alongside growing birthrates of Muslim/African immigrants is cultural suicide.
gumishu 11 | 5,017
24 Dec 2012 #24
True that running up debt is madness, but what country doesn't have a deficit?

Germany - online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577294972788449982.html
TommyG 1 | 361
24 Dec 2012 #25
True Germany's national debt is about 10 times higher than Poland's (per capita!). But many countries are in a lot of debt...

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

1) United States 16,053,420,600,000
2) United Kingdom 9,836,000,000,000
3) France 5,633,000,000,000
4) Germany 5,624,000,000,000
20) Greece 583,300,000,000
28) Poland 252,900,000,000 (figures listed in US dollars)


The wealthier the country = the greater the debt?
Cali - | 56
24 Dec 2012 #26
either for Poland or the US-see AMTRAK.

hey scottiee,

Let me englighten ya that Amtrak is very, very profitable along the north-eastern corridor; it's a dog elsewhere! I would get rid of it! Now Poland's LOT is a dog like other Euro carriers, remember Zurich Air? But I gotta give some kudos, you Brits, as yours seem to have been the most profitable carriers in Europe. That having said, tells me that some countries can have carriers w/o pumping into lotta cash. But then the prob is that there ver few carriers that can buy LOT, right?
Ant63 11 | 403
24 Dec 2012 #27
Often migrants will repatriate some of their incomes back to their native homelands so yes Poland's economy would see the benefit from this when Poles who go abroad still have ties back home.

I wasn't thinking along those lines, more like it cut Polands potential unemployment rate.

I think there is some fact and some fiction in the rest you are saying. The town in which I live is mostly industrial/manufacturing. There has been a massive influx from Poland, Lithuania and Estonia with some from Portugal, former Yugoslavia and African countries. Seven years ago this was one of the whitest towns in England because the ******** that lived here before were racist beyond belief.

Contrary to the competition ideal, what actually happened here is this. The immigrants arrived and there were few jobs available. Their first port of call was the job agencies. The job agencies saw an angle on this. Instead of supplying school/college leavers they could supply adults for the same money. They knew the new arrivals were desperate an ill informed. They also knew the school leavers were using them as a step on the ladder upwards and were not long term prospects. From early 2005 I was getting weekly calls from agencies, blatantly transgressing UK employment laws, offering a new way of employing people including advice on how to get rid of existing staff. So we ended up with immigrants replacing school leavers and to be fair, these people were often put in difficult situations. 3 days work one week, a days work the next. Effectively keeping them in a desperate position. They had to work like trojans in a vain hope they were noticed. Nearly all of these were on minimum wage unless they had a special skill with certification that matched a UK standard. There cannot be many of these as I see no reason for them to leave Poland.

So what we have ended up with here is a lot of adults on minimum wage who have hours that are not guaranteed. Effectively a school leavers wage. Because there incomes are so low, what they pay in tax is returned in Working Tax Credits. School leavers that have had the bottom rung removed. I have to mention benefit fraud here too although it is a subject I usually avoid of PF. Some Poles figured out if they told the local council they were not partners and rented a 2 bedroom flat, they could sub let one room and one of them could claim an allowance towards their rent. £130 a month I think. This is a common benefit fraud. The smarter Poles figured out if they rented a 5 bedroomed house they could sub let and live for free. Good thinking! I agree the influx pushed rents up, but again, many landlords here are cash only. I doubt this is declared in full. For example the council rating here is £460/month for a three bedroomed house, whereas you would be hard pushed to find something under £600. Thats a £140 that the taxman doesn't need to know about. I'm sure they are more careful than that though. Schools have also had their budgets either stretched or enlarged because they have extra expenditure on teachers specifically for the ESL children. Lets say each ESL teacher is payed £18000 pa and we have 12 schools, thats a lot of cash to generate from tax. It doesn't add up.

I see a benefit regarding council tax. Its impossible to avoid realistically. Also the more people the local council have paying council tax, the more they get from central government. Council tax itself is another failure. Basing a tax on a property rather than occupation is dumb. Margaret Thatchers poll tax was the way forward, but the hideously inept implementation has ruled that out for the foreseeable future.

Overall in my particular location I think things have stood still or both the immigrants and the natives are losers. We just have more people speaking less English and the true effect will not be seen/revealed for another 10/20 years. If the immigrants had started businesses, and a minority have, then the situation would be significantly different.

This is how I see it where I live but it may be very different in other towns/cities.
Cali - | 56
25 Dec 2012 #28
Hey ant,

First of all, that's a long post...and you are right that the Polish flood made a dent in the Polish unemployment rate. But on the other hand, the Polish factor had cleansed the UK's rigid labor market, ie, made it more competitive. Most Brits woudn't work - they're better off on welfare, as your bennies are way tooooo genereous - and had no intention to "actively" look for a job. And in the early 90s there was an acute shortage of trade people (plumbers, electricians, hairdressers) and the Poles filled out the hole in the market. When the things were go-go, the Brits were raking in tax revenue - don't tell me that Poles don't pay taxes, every time the local store's tilt rings, your Majesty collects tax. Then the second wave of Poles came, less educated in sense of trade, and coupled w/ the econ's collapse, things went heywire. Now your major dailies were calling on Poles to head back home, but they haven't budged yet. Why woud they? They've already planted some roots - kids are going to English schools and act as a lingo bridge - saved some money, or open their owne business, and tryina ride out the bad econ. You're talking about ESL stuff...well, dosen't that creat a market for your local ESL teachers? Now they don't have to go to Saudi Arabia or Korea to teach English, right?
Ant63 11 | 403
25 Dec 2012 #29
You're talking about ESL stuff...well, dosen't that creat a market for your local ESL teachers?

Its the reverse actually. They tend use Polish speakers for the ESL children. We have a shortage of Polish speakers amongst the natives unsurprisingly. Look how many English teachers are on here working in Poland!

don't tell me that Poles don't pay taxes, every time the local store's tilt rings, your Majesty collects tax

I wasn't and I understand this.

Now your major dailies were calling on Poles to head back home

I don't think this is true even of the Daily Mail. They were just pointing out how it was going tits up and at the same time stirred up a little resentment.

Most Brits woudn't work - they're better off on welfare, as your bennies are way tooooo genereous - and had no intention to "actively" look for a job.

That is just not true. I agree there are a minority and that there are some specific areas that think this is a right but overall we are talking a minority. I believe this to be true because when I placed ads in the job centre from 1998 onwards my business lines were swamped. I did interview one individual that asked me not to give him a job. I knew him as the local motorcycle thief, so he was kind of employed :) Just waiting for his next holiday in HMP.
Cali - | 56
25 Dec 2012 #30
many English teachers are on here working in Poland

Hey ant,

dunno that but I met a lot of them in Asia, especially Korea - btw, they were really cool, though drinking a lot :)


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