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The risk of investing in Europe has risen and Poland has suffered accordingly


OP guesswho 4 | 1,289
19 Nov 2010 #61
but I fear that it too will be taken off down the path of loans and instability

I share your concern and that's why I created this thread.
Seanus 15 | 19,706
19 Nov 2010 #62
I don't want to delve into the murky waters of conspiracy theory but I do find it odd that Skrzypek died in SmoleĊ„sk. So many senior people in one plane is weird. His successor, Mariusz Belka, is more, shall we say, 'compliant'. Ireland should serve as a cautionary tale. I was having this discussion with one of my private students and we came to the conclusion that the economy is much more multi-faceted than most see. The very fact that there are forces beyond the control of those that stimulate economic growth is worrying. Everyone knows (or should) that Greece was taken down. Remedial action must be seen to be taken (think Ben Bernanke in America) but they know full well that such proposed action will not be efficacious. The World Bank and IMF are not extending the loan concept by accident and it's always good to be the creditor and not the debtor.

Ireland and the Irish can bounce back but SeanBM warned of an impending collapse about a year or so ago. Too many people got wrapped up in the whole sloganistic side of things, that Ireland was a thriving land of milk+honey. It's very difficult to sustain that.
convex 20 | 3,978
19 Nov 2010 #63
I share your concern and that's why I created this thread.

I thought you were interested in the short term bond market which the quote used for the title reflects.

Mariusz Belka, is more, shall we say, 'compliant'.

How so? If you would have read the article, it was stated that Poland will be cutting back on issuing debt next year.

we came to the conclusion that the economy is much more multi-faceted than most see.

Of course, saying that you understand an economy is like saying that you understand a people, or a culture, or whatever. It's a living changing thing.

Everyone knows (or should) that Greece was taken down.

Greece took itself down. No one is forced into a CDS bet.

There was nothing successful about Ireland. Credit does not equal success. Look at countries that are growing without getting into unsustainable consumer, corporate, and government debt...those are your long term winners.
OP guesswho 4 | 1,289
19 Nov 2010 #64
The very fact that there are forces beyond the control of those that stimulate economic growth is worrying.

In one of these threads on PF, I posted that Poland is known for good soldiers and pretty women but not for good politicians and economist and that's why the outcome of this current "progress" is so questionable to me. I hate to be misunderstood here, it's not like I want the Polish economy to collapse. It's good to have strong Poland in this part of the world but knowing Polish past, it's just hard for me to believe that this "progress" will last forever.

I thought you were interested in the short term bond market which the quote used for the title reflects.

no, the reason I posted this thread is really to discuss about the outcome of the current progress of the Polish economy.
Marek11111 9 | 816
19 Nov 2010 #65
yes the nations like Germany, China the nation that produce goods for exports they are the creditors nations.
milky 13 | 1,657
19 Nov 2010 #66
Too many people got wrapped up in the whole sloganistic side of things, that Ireland was a thriving land of milk+honey. It's very difficult to sustain that.

I think a lot of FF/developer-bankers put huge structured effort into censorship, as wells as pumping positive information through the media, and anything that questioned the sloganism was seen as anti-progress(almost regressive as if to question the system was some form of mental illness)and attacked with snark.Similar technique as the lackies use on this site when covering up the present massive polish property bubble. I think the Irish were duped.

Was the Celic Tiger just the USA/IMF using Ireland as a gateway into europe? Was the whole thing staged?
convex 20 | 3,978
19 Nov 2010 #67
no, the reason I posted this thread is really to discuss about the outcome of the current progress of the Polish economy.

Strange article to reference. Why not reference something with regards to the economy? Anyway, based on the article, things are looking good for Poland.

Regarding the overall economy, things are going well. Growth is not an overnight phenomenon. I think if you ask anyone whether things are better/easier fiscally now compared to 10 years ago, you will receive a positive answer. Fiscally, Poland has been run pretty well steering clear of allowing too much credit to flood the market at once. Debt wise, the government and corporations are doing well, consumer debt would be a place to watch, but right now it's fairly low per household and that probably won't change anytime soon. Most Poles own the places that they live, and don't have mortgages to pay off. Combine that with wages that have been steadily rising (sometimes by quite a bit year on year according to GUS) for the last 20 years, and you have a good mix of something that I would say is fairly successful.

Another little interesting note, M&A (by value) by Polish companies tripled over last year. FDI is also up substantially over last year. Most people that I know who start a business with any kind of business sense whatsoever are doing incredibly well. Those opening up tshirt shops, gyros shops, cafes...not so well.

Why do you think it's a bad place to invest?
OP guesswho 4 | 1,289
19 Nov 2010 #68
Strange article to reference.

I just grabbed the first best to get it all started. Sorry about the confusion.
Listen convex, I never denied that the numbers are fine in Poland. You keep misunderstanding me for some reason. All I say is that the average Pole doesn't feel any or much progress.

Another story is that I doubt that this current progress will last long, however it doesn't mean that I don't want Poland to be successful. (read #65)

Why do you think it's a bad place to invest?

answer #65
convex 20 | 3,978
19 Nov 2010 #69
I'm just a student but some of you here claim to be business owners and I wonder how you guys run your business being constantly on PF?

And you claim to be a 19 year old student who's making comments about a country you lived in briefly as a child, I was sure you'd put that one to rest based on the earlier comment. Quite a few people on here know each other. We live here, we're surrounded by Poland every day, and we can see the fiscal situation improving. Even if we don't agree on how fast (or why) it is moving forward, I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone to tell you that the fiscal situation is worsening. Is it forever sustainable? The foundation is there. Especially considering the factors that I mentioned earlier with regards to debt, there is no reason to expect that it will not continue to grow at a steady pace well into the future.

All I say is that the average Pole doesn't feel any or much progress.

And I don't believe that to be true. The vast majority of the population is much better off than 10 years ago by every measure. Lifespan, personal wealth, income, assets, employment...
Peter Cracow
16 Jan 2011 #70
It is funny to hear how people understand (or not) the term: "poor country" and "progress". When I had some guests from England in early 90' the dialogs looked like shown below:

BRIT: Why do you have only 20 food shops/restaurants in Old Town?
ME: Because we had 10 last year and we made 100% progress.
BRIT: Do you call it progress??
ME: No! We call it a miracle in fact!
BRIT: Why doesn't your miracle mean 100 restaurants?
ME: Because we have no money for that.
BRIT: Why do you have no money?
ME: Because...
And so on, so on next three hours.
But, at last, we have about 500 food shops/restaurants in Old Town.
Now, let me to be your beloved guest on the next 157 pages of this thread.
poland_
16 Jan 2011 #71
So what am I supposed to believe, the good numbers or someone who was telling me about her problems with tears in her eyes?

Maybe she thought you had some money to invest?
spieretti 1 | 31
16 Jan 2011 #72
good politicians

An oxymoron if ever I heard one...
Truegrit
17 Jan 2011 #73
Most Poles own the places that they live, and don't have mortgages to pay off

That is true, but what about there sibblings??? Most people who own there own home will be unable to retire due to costs associated with owning a house... I don't think things are good for the younger generations... However having a capitalist based system there will always be rich people and the poor will be at the mercy of the rich.. In the case of investing, well it is a hit and miss affair for the individual investor, but the corporate investor will do well because he can cover falls by gains..There is still questions to be asked about how much money Poland owes to the EU and how it will fund its pension system. High fuel costs don't help.
milky 13 | 1,657
13 Feb 2011 #74
Interesting blog here; not just the usual, positive information dogma, that tries to encourage blind faith in the (obvious)illusion of economic prosperity in Poland.

beyondthetransition.blogspot.com
Chicago Pollock 7 | 504
14 Feb 2011 #75
Poland should follow Iceland's lead in economic matters. What it shouldn't do is constrict the economy like Ireland and England. And no way should it give up the Zloty for the Euro.
jonni 16 | 2,485
14 Feb 2011 #76
Poland should follow Iceland's lead in economic matters.

Go bankrupt?

and England

I assume you mean Britain. Not that the economy's been "constricted".
THE HITMAN - | 236
14 Feb 2011 #77
And no way should it give up the Zloty for the Euro.

Do you think the Polish economy would be where it is TODAY without the aid from the EU ?
If they tried to go it alone since the fall of communism, I think we would still see the grey ruined Poland of yester-years.
Poles financially insecure, new report shows: /thenews.pl/business/artykul148964_poles-financially-insecure--new-rep ort-shows.html

Leaders in Warsaw can't cover up EU budget rift: It has been estimated that Poland needs at least the same amount of structural funds it received in the years 2007-2013 (67 billion euros) in the period commencing in 2014.

Wrong government with inappropriate policies, who have done little if nothing to change Poland for the better since their term in office, other than to line their own pockets. FACT !!
landora - | 199
14 Feb 2011 #78
Nothing new there, they joined the EU on the promise of being given endless funds - and now that it appears that those funds aren't unlimited, Poland is throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Wrong government with inappropriate policies, who have done little if nothing to change Poland for the better since their term in office, other than to line their own pockets. FACT !!

So, what would be the "right" government?
THE HITMAN - | 236
14 Feb 2011 #79
they joined the EU on the promise of being given endless funds

Do you live on this planet ?
Please provide a link detailing this PROMISE.

So, what would be the "right" government?

Definitely not the one currently in office.
milky 13 | 1,657
14 Feb 2011 #80
Poland need a government, that represent Polish people and not the free market.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
14 Feb 2011 #81
Do you live on this planet ?
Please provide a link detailing this PROMISE.

I think it was pretty much in the public mind that EU membership = pots of cash. And to be fair, the EU made good on that for the first 7 years of membership. Of course, now that parts of Poland are wealthier than parts of the "old" EU, the tap is getting turned off - and with it, the massive sulk.

Definitely not the one currently in office.

So, who would be good? What political party in Poland today could do a better job?

Poland need a government, that represent Polish people and not the free market.

The current government was voted in by the majority of the Polish people.

I know Mark, you'd really like the Polish government to give you a free flat in Krakow, but it ain't gonna happen.
THE HITMAN - | 236
14 Feb 2011 #82
the majority of the Polish people

Sheep, baa baa !! ........ voted only not to let PIS get in. ( So we will vote for any idiots just to keep Kaczyinski out, thats clever, but it doesn,t solve the long term future of Poland ).

Mark

Who ?
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
14 Feb 2011 #83
Democracy is democracy.

Again - who else? The SLD? PSL?
THE HITMAN - | 236
14 Feb 2011 #84
Again - who else? The SLD? PSL?

Well, let me see ...... PIS ?
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
14 Feb 2011 #85
They had their chance and blew it.

Mind you, Catholic-Socialism isn't exactly going to help Poland either.
THE HITMAN - | 236
14 Feb 2011 #86
Mind you, Catholic-Socialism isn't exactly going to help Poland either.

Who knows, prayers might just be the answer. lol.
Chicago Pollock 7 | 504
15 Feb 2011 #87
I assume you mean Britain. Not that the economy's been "constricted".

Poland has to avoid becoming another Portugal or Ireland. German and French banks raided the Irish treasury and now they laid it at the feet of the Irish tax payer. No way they can pay that back. Iceland on the other hand limited the debt to the banks where it belonged. And they have their own currency...

Poland is in treacherous waters. They too can fall victim to German banks. Poland needs to become independent of Germany and Russia, not easy but doable. First order of business, avoid the Euro.
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
15 Feb 2011 #88
German and French banks raided the Irish treasury and now they laid it at the feet of the Irish tax payer.

Actually, it was an Irish bank that raided the Irish treasury. In fact, the only banks of note in Ireland were Irish and British.

Iceland on the other hand limited the debt to the banks where it belonged. And they have their own currency...

Iceland is a dreadful example to use - the country is in no way comparable to even Ireland, let alone Poland.

They too can fall victim to German banks.

What German banks? The big names on the Polish high street are all owed by other than Germany, except Deutsche Bank. Let's see..

PKO BP = Polish
PEKAO = Polish
WBK = Spanish
Deutsche Bank = German
BRE Bank (Multibank/mBank) = Portuguese
Raiffeisen = Austrian
Bank BPH = American
ING = Dutch
Millennium = Portuguese
Nordea = Swedish

Not much German banking going on here, that's for sure.

Poland needs to become independent of Germany and Russia, not easy but doable.

Why? What harm has came to Poland through being associated with Germany? I can see German cash flowing into Poland to pay for the renovation and construction of endless projects, though.

As for Russia - I don't see much Russian influence here either.
grubas 12 | 1,391
15 Feb 2011 #89
PEKAO = Polish

Italian.

BRE Bank (Multibank/mBank)

Austrian
delphiandomine 85 | 18,254
15 Feb 2011 #90
Italian.

Correct. My mistake.

Austrian

Funny, I thought it was Portuguese...wonder how I mixed that one up?

Either way, still a lack of a Franco-German banking axis there.


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