Poland's Economy "Outpacing Germany". Gratulacje.

jasondmzk

8 Feb 2012 #1

Polish bonds beat German bunds and U.S. Treasuries in risk-adjusted returns since Europe's debt crisis started three years ago, indicating the country that restructured a $35 billion debt load two decades ago is becoming a regional haven.

bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/beating-germany-makes-po land-haven-in-europe-riskless-return.html

Looking good. Debt-volatility is second only to Japan. Impressive growth. Stellar holdings. Our Polish friends seem to have their heads in the game.

southern 74 | 7,074

8 Feb 2012 #2

It is due to the fact there are very few immigrants in Poland and due to majority ofpolish working population being abroad hit by the crisis there.

OP jasondmzk

8 Feb 2012 #3

It has to do with none of those things. Poland's monetary policy has turned her high domestic growth into a stable bet for foreign investors. These are the two biggest factors.

southern 74 | 7,074

8 Feb 2012 #4

Poland may not have been affected by the crisis but polish people suffer a lot.I see it with polish immigrants in Greece.

milky 13 | 1,657

8 Feb 2012 #5

It has to do with none of those things

WRONG, Southern is entirely right.

modafinil - | 419

8 Feb 2012 #6

Doesn't make any sense at all. Germany have half the unemployment as Poland.

Lyzko

8 Feb 2012 #7

Germany imports cheap labor from less-developed, i.e. "emerging", markets, Poland typically hasn't. Poland's been the country people emigrated FROM, rather than TO. If Poland also used cheaper-wage immigrants for as many years as Germany, Germany and Poland would be practically on the same economic footing.

hythorn 3 | 580

8 Feb 2012 #8

as far as the OP's link goes it concentrates on the government bond market and the returns that can be made
still it is a positive article

southern 74 | 7,074

8 Feb 2012 #9

Crow what are some decent slavic products?

Zman

9 Feb 2012 #10

Kiełbasa is polish, if produced in PL, eggs are too, if labeled 1 or less, about 1 mln of car engines are likewise produced here as well as as are most of LDC sreeens to be sold in Europe :-)

Meathead 5 | 469

9 Feb 2012 #11

The problem with Poland is that it is too beholding to EU (i.e., German) loans. From the article:

"While Poland’s economy has weathered Europe’s debt crisis so far, the country’s financial links to the region make it vulnerable to a retrenchment by foreign lenders, according to Pablo Cisilino, who helps manage about $30 billion in emerging- debt at Stone Harbor Investment Partners in New York.

About 63 percent of the total credit extended to non-bank borrowers in Poland as of June came from foreign lenders in the euro area, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“Eastern Europe is most affected by the deleveraging of European banks,” said Cisilino, who has “underweight” holdings in Poland."

Combined with the above, Tusk is still hell bent on joining the Euro. When Tusk drops the zloty, Germany calls home loans and Polish financial fiasco starts ala Greece, Ireland, Portugal, etal. Tusk is an idiot.

OP jasondmzk

9 Feb 2012 #12

The problem with Poland is that it is too beholding to EU (i.e., German) loans.

Tusk is still hell bent on joining the Euro.

There is a dichotomy to these statements. Despite everything, Germany has prospered greatly from the Euro. Poland's best angle in deleveraging itself from German loans COULD be to adopt the Euro, as well. "Could be".

Meathead 5 | 469

9 Feb 2012 #13

How, if Germany is the benefactor of the Euro? By your reasoning every other country that has adopted the Euro should have benefited also, but they haven't.

OP jasondmzk

9 Feb 2012 #14

I'm not saying adopting the Euro would benefit Poland, though it very well might. Ostensibly, they would join to enjoy the same interest rates as the core countries of the Euro, and not those of those on the periphery.

southern 74 | 7,074

9 Feb 2012 #15

How, if Germany is the benefactor of the Euro?

It is depreciated relatively to mark and drives German exports prices down allowing them to increase exports volume.Generally it makes German goods cheaper.

Poles here really suffer from the crisis.I cannot stand seeing these nice Slavs suffering so much.

OP jasondmzk

9 Feb 2012 #16

.I cannot stand seeing these nice Slavs suffering so much.

Enough with the Slavs, already! The above article is about POLAND and POLISH economy. "Slav" is a broad term that signifies next to nothing. You want I should die? Because you're killing me.

peterweg 37 | 2,311

18 May 2012 #17

Analysis of the Euro suggested only those countries physically joined to Germany should join. Well, Poland is actually sat on a big chunk of German infrastructure, you can't more single market than that.

milky 13 | 1,657

19 May 2012 #18

Poland B is still too far away, or should I say the Russian part.

bullfrog 6 | 602

28 May 2012 #19

In the case of Poland, not having joined the euro is certainly one of the reasons why the economy has continued to perform well.. Unlike the German economy, whose exports are focused on high quality goods for which price is not the most important factor, polish exports are in products that are sensitive to price; the weakness of PLN has certainly contributed to help maintain them to a good level..

peterweg 37 | 2,311

28 May 2012 #20

yes, a variable exchange rate is a very useful control mechanism, maybe there is an alternative, I am not sure.