Eu.
If EU can't bring a good solution (which is unlikely) to this economy crisis without any war, there will be no more EU.
If EU plays religion card like USA and Britain played in this decade, then, it is a disaster for EU.
If EU plays nationalism card, it is atomization into particles in EU.
Only choice of EU is to play economy card. But, it is too difficult to play this card as wealth distribution in EU is very bad.
So, EU is a minor player in world lately.
ps: Israel - Turkey relations? It is deeper than people think here.. EU can see war between Israel and Turkey after EU is totally collapsed.