How might Britain`s withdrawal from EU affect Poles there and here?

And Cameron is? Not on a par with the populist PIS mob, but he fancies himself to be "Of the people."

Camaron is an idiot who may go down as the worst leader in a 1000 years. The man who broke the UK.

Back on topic everyone - Poland/Poles

He nearly lost Scotland and now he's messing up Europe. Yesterday's newspapers suggested that it might mean 400,000 Poles having to leave and of course Poland could start to be difficult, especially if the EU money, of which the UK is a major donor stops.

I am really sure that would not happen. Which newspaper said that anyway?

Theoretically a lot in possible. In practice,a lot less. Going against the vote means end of political career for those forwarding such a movement and very likely parties as a whole. So thats a non starter. In case of the cons, Cameron has said he will follow the result of the referendum, if would force a snap election and certainly give cons no chance of re election whoever they put in charge. The public would have it in black and white that they were never given a chance and would likely vote for UKIP and the fringe nationalist parties rather than the main two. Certainly it would swing a lot of votes away from those two parties. But as I say, almost zero chance. More likely a second referendum i a few years than that, but things would need to become worse in the UK whilst at the same time better in Europe for that to happen. And with the EU unable to address fundamental issues, they arent going to start growing rapidly anytime soon.

I really doubt this, especially if the vote is close. Should voters make the mistake of choosing a Brexit, Cameron will be history.

And yes, there will be panic in Poland should the EU in its present form cease to exist and EU2 develop.

Maybe I was unclear, those going against the verdict of the vote or promoting taking an opposite avenue would likely see their careers ended. Difficult to imagine people voting for such people going forward. All politicians are economically with the truth and speak in riddles. But pushing for something that the majority didnt vote for isnt going to win you any votes. As for the vote being close or not makes no different. Thats the democratic system we have. There could have been a different threshold set, say 66%, but it wasnt. The Scottish vote was the same. It was pretty close and if UK stays in the EU, its unlikely we get another referendum there within 10 years. If something was to materially change, such as a Brexit, then they can push for another referendum. And thats something you should expected to be pushed by the SNP this year if indeed the UK Brexits.

Are you American by any chance? That's a real American English construction in the above sentence. It's also a rather American point of view. British politics are rather different and you certainly won't see the end of well established parties, nor will you see a massive swing to the right. Britian isn't mainland Europe either.


It could be a lot sooner than that. Remember what happened in Ireland with the Lisbon treaty where the public voted 'no' and were then told to have another go! First referendum was June 2008 and the second one was October 2009.

I think that's unlikely to say the least; and should the vote unfortunately go to 'leave', the economic shock would be so brutal that even the most deluded Ukippers would be begging for it not to go ahead.


Basically a good precedent for common sense.

I would think that in Poland, a mistaken 'Brexit' vote would be quite an issue too.

And of course the referendum is not legally binding.

This referendum is just that - the voice of the people
Luckily, in this case all will be well. The polls are flawed and Remain will win. Bet your house on it. I was wrong about a bloody tennis match but Poles can rest easy. Brits know what side their bread is buttered on

No, British born and bred. Of course the main parties wont disappear. I was just taking on jon's argument if they went against the vote of the people, they would be done for the next couple of elections at least. But its a non starter as I say. There may be some changes on deck, some heads may roll, some may fall on sword, but if brexit voted, thats the line they will be forced to follow. Otherwise you can forget governing. Its not a banana republic. You can get away with not introducing free bus passes from your mandate, but going against such a crucial vote gives you a half life longer than most radioctive waste. Untouchable.


And there was Denmark too. But the situation is different in the UK, the government here is less europhile and the public much less so as the vote is likely to prove. And then there are the problems within the EU itself which have manifested since then.

Who would be 'done'? All major parties are committed to remaining in the Union, the referendum is non-binding - this was made clear right at the start - and a general election manifesto with EU membership at the fore would be decisive.

Plus there's the possibility of a low turnout or a close vote.

You dont seriously suggest that any party that would go against the wishes of a voting majority would have any chance in getting voted in during the following election?

In any case its a trivial point as it wont happen. The result will be respected whatever it is.
During the two day extension, nearly half a million registered to vote. A high turnout is said to benefit the remain, although to me thats not immediately clear, as the leave side is the more activist and likely to vote come hell or high water.

If both major parties agree to ignore the wishes of a voting majority then yes, they'd probably get away with it.

What often happens in two party systems is that those running both parties agree with each other against the majority of the population. Immigration in the US is a good example. The leadership of both parties wants large scale low-skilled immigration forever (for different reasons) and the majority of the population who are against this can't do much about it. Politicians for years have known that immigration-restriction would gather large support form voters but Trump is the first to actually make use of that knowledge.

In Poland, this is less an issue because ideology is still alive (which has its good points and its bad points). The good is that voters have clearer choices (Poles voting for PiS know that the economy is going to take a hit, those voting for PO know that it's not going to hand out goodies to the poor). The bad is.... most everything else.

We are talking about a referendum result here, not just views. Its an important distinction. Its would be the same as Trump winning the election and then Obama saying he will stand down but hand the reins to Clinton rather than him. These things dont happen in the UK, nor the US for that matter.

In Poland both sides fail to fulfill promises, then the public votes for the other side after a term or two. Sadly its Polish nature to line ones pockets first, however full these pockets are in the first place. Non of their politicians can be trusted with that in mind.

A non-binding referendum. Any result that displeases the party leadership will be worked around. I think the idea that there will be early elections with both parties having continued EU membership as a key party plank is likely. I'm sure the UKIP would gain voters in such a situation but not enough to seriously affect the result.

The trend in modern 'democracy' in both the UK and US is to keep the form (elections) while watering down the content of what can voted on. I honestly don't know which party Cameron represents without looking it up or consciously working it out (the crazy leftist who wants purges, must be labour so I guess Cameron is the other?)

If the result is a very tiny 'remain' victory then it will be treated as a mandate that must never be question again. If the result is a 'leave' victory and the government ignores it then.... (the bigger the victory the more harm will be done but not very quickly).

Basically yes; the referendum is non-binding - this has been made clear from the start. There is also a legal case (already outlined) for dismissing a 'leave' vote on the basis of proven misinformation from the 'leave' campaign.

Triggering an Article 50 withdrawal is actually quite difficult.


This happens there too, though the politicians do general have much more integrity than their Polish counterparts.

The ruling conservatives are in large eurosceptics, have been since Thatcher, so that certainly wont be the case. Labour has been seen in the past to show a bit more love for europe but have been very quiet during this campaign. Corbyn, the leader, has been very subdued. Former leader and Prime Minister Gordon Brown was seen speaking recently, backing the remain side. The media jumped on this as a panic move by David Cameron. Two things here. Turning to a former foe smacks of panic. Secondly, why not bring in Corbyn? It appears either Corbyn wants an exit from europe, or its a ploy to win the next general election, whenever it may be. The conservatives are in danger of tearing themselves apart with big players arguing out Brexit. It could well be labour sees sense in saying nothing, backing neither side. But a lot of labour supporters are wondering what the party line is on europe as Corbyn is very leftist so not immediate clear.

Indeed. Corbyn is basically so hardwired to the politics of protest and is in many ways an accidental leader that he will quite simply oppose any policy an elected government have. And I doubt he hs much long-term strategy; even Momentum, his support base, tacitly acknowledge this.

A Polish equivalent would more or less be electing Piotr Ikonowicz as the leader of the opposition!

You want to know what Labour really thinks about the EU, ask true Labour men, Arthur Scargill and Dennis Skinner.

Corbyn is in the Unions pocket and ALL have received funds for a remain vote.

"ask true Labour men, Arthur Scargill"
Would that be the same Arthur Scargill who left the party 20 years ago in a huff?

And who has long been a vociferous critic of Poland, especially the solidarity movement...


And the NUM-sponsored Dennis Skinner isn't?

Try harder...

Thought this might be of interest to anyone who hasn't seen it, as it draws information together from a range of polls and is updated twice weekly.

economist/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum

Thought this might be of interest to anyone who hasn't seen it, as investors go from denial to fear.
They have even lost some of their faith in Ireland.

msn.com/en-us/money/markets/brexit-vote-investors-go-from-denial-to-fear/ar-AAh4oDC?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=U348DHP

In Poland too - capital is moving to gold and to German bonds. Not Polish (investors don't trust the current government here) bonds which are soaring :-(

There has been a big swing in polls recently favouring leave by between a point and a few (JP Morgan avgs 1.4pt lead), but usually right before the vote you get a consolidation for the status quo. So while ahead, leave still need about another 5pts in the polls across the board to win the vote.

Risky assets such as cee bonds are being sold and money switched to deemed safer assets such as german bonds and treasuries. Its been suggested by some that UK leaving could spell the end for the UK. I wouldnt go that far, but it would put a stop to the uneven integration that they have been pursuing where some are more equal and have better privledges than others.

This is true. It also depends on which demographic will turn out to vote on the day. We'll be down a few thousand youngish, educated and affluent people due to Glastonbury, let's hope there'll be a big Euro 2016 match that day to keep the UKippers busy.

23rd is a euro16 free zone! A lot will depend on the weather. Those claiming an understanding believe better weather will help the remains while poor weather and thus a poor turnout with help leaves.

Bad news. Let's hope the sun is shining and the pubs are open. And the TV shows reruns of old favourites to keep the over 70s enthralled.

I'm thousands down already on my share portfolio - with the Scots referendum it did bounce back with a huge one-day surge but took a bit of time to make up all the losses.

Some interesting reactions today from the Polish government saying they're prepared (they aren't) and from Germany where they're actually quite worried about the disastrous effect it would have.

They sure do Doug and its not the in the EU.


Thats so funny Jon


Sadly labour voters are the ones who were damaged by Tony's open door policy in 2004. They are not going to forget that for donkeys years. Labour are screwed. Damned if they do. Damned if they don't.

I could pick out rubbish from almost each and every post on hear.

This thread is hilarious. About as much connection with reality as Dirty Dave and Clueless Corbyn. Even some Poles in the UK want us to vote out. I've yet to meet someone who is voting IN apart from the misfits and never do wells handing out leaflets (or at least attempting to) in my local town centre. Every day that passes is another car crash for the REMAIN campaign. Cameron will surely be gone which ever way it swings. He has told too many lies. Even the the Guardians readership is drifting to BREXIT. Sorry I misled you. I met one INNER and he ran off when asked what he saw as the benefits of staying in. Even Jon's 'educated' ones are turning to BREXIT, although one poor lass was voting in because roaming charges where cheaper now in the EU. Educated dummies a lot of them.

I see again Farage is attacked for stating the obvious(UKIPS new poster campaign). Probably would have been more sensible for the remainers not to comment instead of bringing it to the attention of everyone that there are nearly no women or children in the picture of ?refugees?. All news is good news.

Terrible news concerning a Labour MP being shot and stabbed today. Hopefully its unconnected to the referendum.

As you can probably tell I'm for OUT and on the day, I'll be monitoring a voting station for the leave campaign. We don't want to see the discrepancies seen recently in Europe.

As for sending 400,000 people home. Don't be daft. It would be in nobodies interest.

This is pretty well spot on: