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Poland Housing prices in July 2010


convex 20 | 3928  
26 Oct 2010 /  #31
The interest/response to my last project over the past few months has been incredible and I feel very confident for the future.

Based on what you said, your last project seems to be fairly common sense. I figure affordable housing will be a win here for years to come.

You mentioned that bureaucracy and red tape adds quite a bit to the cost of building, is it easier to build outside of the cities, or do deal with the same people/paperwork?
poland_  
26 Oct 2010 /  #32
Do you think that real estate is still undervalued in Poland? Or that a 50% increase isn't speculative?

In my opinion, the main problem with Polish real estate market is the real estate agents and unrealistic sellers, the REA are unscrupulous, they drive the market up, if you look at prices on the RE or REA internet sites, it beggars belief the prices that are being asked. As an example, in Warsaw I have seen a house being offered at 6,300,000 PLN by one agent and 4,500,000 by another. It is common to see a property being offered for sale by different agents with a price difference of between 5-20%. for the same property. I would never buy through a Polish real estate agent, only directly with a seller or a developer, once a project has been at least 80% built.
Avalon 4 | 1063  
26 Oct 2010 /  #33
convex

You mentioned that bureaucracy and red tape adds quite a bit to the cost of building, is it easier to build outside of the cities, or do deal with the same people/paperwork?

I personally find it easier to build outside the city limits. It is then not necessary for the planners to have to take, traffic, infrastructure or the "studium" into consideration, this can delay a planning decision. Paperwork is always the same unfortunately, every department wants its share of Złoty for putting the stamp on a bit of paper.

warszawski

I would never buy through a Polish real estate agent, only directly with a seller or a developer, once a project has been at least 80% built.

I set the price and I pay the commission to the agent, there is no commission to pay for the buyer.
poland_  
26 Oct 2010 /  #34
I set the price and I pay the commission to the agent, there is no commission to pay for the buyer.

Fair play, there is a need for more transparency in Poland.
Ziemowit 14 | 4046  
26 Oct 2010 /  #35
I would never buy through a Polish real estate agent, only directly with a seller or a developer, once a project has been at least 80% built.

It would be interesting to know what proportion of property is sold here in Poland through real estate agents versus directly sold by the sellers. If it is a large one, I have the impression that the real estate agents are in force of dictating prices since a small proportion of property being sold at lower prices directly cannot really thwart the market.
poland_  
26 Oct 2010 /  #36
My guess would be 70% real estate agent, 20% direct from the developer and 10% seller direct, the main problem in Poland for an overseas buyer or the uninformed is there is no third party independent source, available to buyers/would be buyers for free. In the Uk you could check on zoopla.co.uk it is free and available online. In Poland you are at the mercy of the Real estate agent, which is like the pusher telling you "it is good sh1t " there are some very good developers out there, but there are some very bad ones as well.

In Warsaw, every week the Gazeta wyborca, print the prices paid the previous week and of course if you want an independent source, you have to pay, the cost is 800-1,200 PLN for each report.
Avalon 4 | 1063  
26 Oct 2010 /  #37
convex
warszawski

Further to today's posts, it seems that I was correct about what the bigger developers (2 in Warsaw and 1 in Krakow) are going to do. If you look at the WBJ today (link below) it seems that they are all going to build at around the 6000 per m2 (minimum) mark as this seems to be the limit that the banks want to lend at. The market has dictated the price and its not 2000 per m2 as some people hoped. I wonder if the quality will suffer to satisfy the shareholders greed?

wbj.pl/category-65-wbj-residential.html
Harry  
26 Oct 2010 /  #38
The market has dictated the price and its not 2000 per m2 as some people hoped.

Poor M! He'll never be able to get that Krakow flat now!

Note to Mods: When I say "M" I am talking about 'Milky': I am not talking about 'Mark'. As we all know, despite thinking exactly the same things and on occasion posting exactly the same posts, Milky and Mark are most certainly not the same person and any posts even suggesting that they are will be complained about until such posts are moved to Random.

Isn't that a bit informal when talking to a stranger, or someone you don't know?
poland_  
26 Oct 2010 /  #39
it seems that they are all going to build at around the 6000 per m2 (minimum) mark as this seems to be the limit that the banks want to lend at. The market has dictated the price. I wonder if the quality will suffer to satisfy the shareholders greed?

urbanrail.net/eu/war/warszawa.htm

If you look at the link above, you will see the second line of the metro in red ( not built yet), at the end of the line you have Warszawa Wilenska, the land east of WW, is Targowek{ or the badlands, as Harry, calls it) and it was once full of heavy industry, many of the factories have been closed down, and the land was quite inexpensive from the Gmina, the good point, it is still reasonably close to the centrum. Dom developments have also bought up a lot of land, a little further north in a place called Henrykow, the prices will be about the same. Getting back to your question about quality, I believe there will be enough on the plate, not to skimp on quality as they bought the land a number of years ago. They are trading down in comparison to their last projects, which were being sold, for as much as 17,000PLN per Sq Mtr. Avalon, all their projects have one thing in common. close to the metro or new bridges over the Wisla that are being built. DD are using the USPs.
Avalon 4 | 1063  
26 Oct 2010 /  #40
warszawski

I believe there will be enough on the plate, not to skimp on quality as they bought the land a number of years ago. They are trading down in comparison to their last projects, which were being sold, for as much as 17,000PLN per Sq Mtr.

I have seen this happen in the UK. The developers will try to screw the subbies (contractors) into the ground on prices. It then becomes a game of cat and mouse as to who can get away with what. Many good, small companies were made bankrupt when the big boys delayed payments and argued over everything. It got so bad that the minute you signed a contract, you knew it was going to end up in litigation.

I was tendering for work against companies whose pricing of the same works would not cover the cost of the materials, let alone overhead and profit. The big boys would accept the price, making sure that they held enough money back to get another contractor in to finish the job.

That was when I stopped working for them and did my own developing.
milky 13 | 1656  
13 Dec 2010 /  #41
So any news on the massive property bubble in Poland?
Wroclaw Boy  
13 Dec 2010 /  #42
Prices stable, market improving. After a long cooling off period buyers that have been in waiting are beginning to initiate moves.
poland_  
13 Dec 2010 /  #43
So any news on the massive property bubble

I have just arrived back from Spain ( Barcelona/Malaga) the price of property has gone down 30-50% on villas and more on apartments. Now thats what I call a real bubble.
milky 13 | 1656  
13 Dec 2010 /  #44
Prices stable, market improving.

lol,,bubble dont improve.

30-50% on villas and more on apartments.

agree
peterweg 37 | 2305  
14 Dec 2010 /  #45
I have just arrived back from Spain ( Barcelona/Malaga) the price of property has gone down 30-50% on villas and more on apartments. Now thats what I call a real bubble.

Yes. 1.6million unsold properties, sales at the lowest level ever. Banks accepting back more repossessions than properties are sold.

There is going to be a blood bath in Spain. Hundreds of thousands of apartments where there is no jobs and the only people interested are going through their own house price crash (90% of buyers in Spain are UK/Irish).
milky 13 | 1656  
14 Dec 2010 /  #46
I reckon it will be PPIIGS in 2011
delphiandomine 86 | 17823  
14 Dec 2010 /  #47
Why don't you just get a job instead?
milky 13 | 1656  
14 Dec 2010 /  #48
PPIIGS
Ziemowit 14 | 4046  
14 Dec 2010 /  #49
Some people just can't wait until the second "P" for Poland will be added to this famous PIGS abbreviation. Although it cannot be excluded that Poland may be eventually included in it [but not for the reason of a property bubble, for sure], this longing has nothing more in it than a strictly personal factor. People like Milky or Espana or others said nothing about Greece, Iceland or Ireland before those countries' own bubbles - banking, public debt or property ones - broke out. It is quite likely that those people are as wrong by eagerly promoting Poland to the ranks of PIGS as they were wrong with not promoting to these famous ranks countries that have really become PIGS.

Lie on the couch, will you? Dr Freud is ready to see you, my dear patient!
milky 13 | 1656  
14 Dec 2010 /  #50
eople like Milky or Espana or others said nothing about Greece, Iceland or Ireland before those countries' own bubbles - banking, public debt or property ones

bollshit, i, along with the censored majority, consistently predicted the Irish situation and the inevitable collapse of an unregulated freemarket so F...y... . However No one, will profit from this situation in the long un,so i take no joy in saying this to all yoy guys duped by the Chicago Boys"i told you so" and for the Chicago Boys a quote from dylan

Let me ask you one question
Is your money that good
Will it buy you forgiveness
Do you think that it could
I think you will find
When your death takes its toll
All the money you made
Will never buy back your soul.

And I hope that you die
And your death'll come soon
I will follow your casket
In the pale afternoon
And I'll watch while you're lowered
Down to your deathbed
And I'll stand over your grave
'Til I'm sure that you're dead.
poland_  
14 Dec 2010 /  #51
PPIIGS

I stuck it in the search engine, came up with:

Poor Person Interested In Golden Shower...

What does that have to do with Polish property prices?

only people interested are going through their own house price crash (90% of buyers in Spain are UK/Irish).

There are a lot of Scandinavian, German and Dutch owners as well. The situation cannot be compared to PL, as it is the second home market that is suffering.
Wroclaw Boy  
14 Dec 2010 /  #52
Let me ask you one question

Trust a poor man to come out with this hey M?

Poor Person Interested In Golden Shower...

Hes getting confused with his abbreviations mes think.

Stop complaining and try earning that way and that way alone will you ever be able to afford a property in Lublin. Unsubstantiated dreams of a property collapse are for slackers.
Harry  
14 Dec 2010 /  #53
Unsubstantiated dreams of a property collapse are for slackers.

You forget that M firmly believes in the power of the internet. He believes that he can use the internet to make him a fortune (he even tries to charge $100 per hour for consulting about it!) and so he doesn't think he needs to get a proper job (especially as he sends his wife out to work). And he believes that by spamming enough, he can actually drive the price of property in Krakow down to a level where he can afford to buy a place!
milky 13 | 1656  
19 Dec 2010 /  #54
So whats the latest on Poland massive property bubble?
delphiandomine 86 | 17823  
19 Dec 2010 /  #55
You still can't afford to buy.

Nothing new.
Harry  
19 Dec 2010 /  #56
So whats the latest on Poland massive property bubble?

Based on what the place two floors above mine sold for, my flat is still worth three times what I paid for it. Or at least it would be if I wanted to sell it, which I don't.

But then I was smart enough to get myself a real job instead of pretending to be an internet guru, and that is how I managed to earn enough to pay for a flat. Until you get a job, M, and stop living only on what your wife brings in, you'll never be able to afford anywhere, no matter how low prices fall.
milky 13 | 1656  
19 Dec 2010 /  #57
Harry, do you not know that there is a massive property bubble in Poland.
Avalon 4 | 1063  
19 Dec 2010 /  #58
Probably not. You are the only person who seems to know about this mythical property bubble.

Why not share some actual facts with us and maybe even provide some links for us to check, preferably ones that are not 3 years old.
Wroclaw 44 | 5359  
19 Dec 2010 /  #59
do you not know that there is a massive property bubble in Poland.

repeating posts without any links/facts will only land such posts in the bin.
poland_  
19 Dec 2010 /  #60
it seems that they are all going to build at around the 6000 per m2 (minimum) mark as this seems to be the limit that the banks want to lend at

Avalon, I met with someone over the weekend, who is managing a number of developments in Warsaw, Mokotow, Zoliborc and Ochota. The support level on new builds is 8-8500 PLN, a number of developers that are selling at 13-15,000 PLN are clearing to banks and investors at these prices. Most flats are now being built at 50 to 85 mtrs, they are not moving above 90 mtrs, because the banks won't lend.

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