Poland house prices recovered faster - Summary of 2010

You're a tax man, think I'll stop flogging this dead horse.

I think the system has already been beat real bad and so the monetary system does not exist. Instead, we are using promissory notes of one type or another and they have no objective value. When you think you have what you'd call a $100 bill, or a bank deposit worth $100 all it takes is a flick of some bog shot's pen and now you have $1.00. On top of that, that big shot is more than likely a private banker.

That's been true ever since the origins of paper money.

What's really f*cking things over is electronic money - derivatives, in short. With options and forwards you're only notionally trading the underlying 'asset' - much of what goes on here is bets on volatility of the asset price and other abstractions.

But your point about the retail investor getting nailed every time by the big traders is sadly spot on.

One cure would be for commodity market players to be required a capability to store the assets they buy. For instance, you would not be able to buy 1000 barrels of oil unless you had enough storage to accommodate the quantity. Wanna buy a few tonnes of grain? No problem. Show me the silos where you want to store it. That would bring the price of oil and grain real fast.

Rubbish, the prices are still at a saturation point, they have yet to collapse and re-align with the reality of the Polish work force.
The rising middle class in Poland lol, a Pole in McDonalds or a supermarket in Ireland must be the ruling class so.
The people who are saying that its not a Ponzi scheme are obviously profiting from the scheme. Nobody profiting from a Ponzi would ever admit it's a ponzi.


Exactly,it's a perfect example.

Would you mind telling us when that is going to be? You've been coming here for more than three years (using your various usernames) telling us that property prices are about to go through the floor but all we have seen in reality is a fairly minor correction. When is this crash coming?


No Mark, it is not a perfect example. What happened with the Polish property market was in some ways worse than a Ponzi scheme (letting people borrow 110% of the value of a property and to do so in foreign currency was never going to end well) but it was not a Ponzi scheme simply because of what a Ponzi scheme is. If you need more information, read this article

dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0709macewan.html

The frequency in the UK/US is every 18years, peak to peak. Poland is just starting on it so it will take time to establish a pattern

"If you need more information, read this article.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2009/0709macewan.html"

This is your best defence of the property market...

As badly as our banking system operated in recent years, the housing bubble was not a Ponzi scheme. In some respects, however, it was even worse than a Ponzi scheme!

And, yes, substantial fraud was involved. For example, mortgage companies and banks used deceit to get people to take on mortgages when there was no possibility that the borrowers would be able to meet the payments. Not only was this fraud, but this fraud depended on government authorities ignoring their regulatory responsibilities.

So, no, a bubble and a Ponzi scheme are not the same. But they have elements in common. Usually, however, the losers in a Ponzi scheme are simply the direct investors, the schemer's marks. A bubble like the housing bubble can wreak havoc on all of us.

So, just like Ponzi scheme, but worse.

No, not just like a Ponzi scheme, hence the universal agreement between everybody (here and elsewhere) who actually knows what a Ponzi scheme is. How many more times will you have to be told "a bubble and a Ponzi scheme are not the same"?!


Hence a certain poster writing "What happened with the Polish property market was in some ways worse than a Ponzi scheme (letting people borrow 110% of the value of a property and to do so in foreign currency was never going to end well)". Do you know who that poster was? Probably not, given your clear inability to read and understand very simple texts.

Actually, Hal, let's do a bit of reverse psychology here.

Praise milky and pete to the high heavens - and then, and only then, do a property trade against H^H^H^H with them.

Candy from a baby, methinks.

You in?

As an alternative to your technique, borrowed from Goebells, of simply repeating the lie until it becomes true?


Not in the market for anything for another 3 years, thanks.

That one doesn't work when there are enough people pointing out the lie, such as your lie about property in Poland is a Ponzi scheme.

Harry there are plenty of people who disagree with the systematic disinformation and general bullsh1t that you are your lackey friends in property put on this site. Ponzi/bubble..... a Ponzi is a Bubble you idiot. Ponzi is just the name of a guy who profited from bubbles. Stop thinking you have a monopoly on rational thinking, everyone knows your(and the other lackeys) game.

Sorry Mark but a Ponzi is not a bubble. As you'd know if you knew a thing about economics. But you think that only your wife should go out to work while you don't while you stay home and try to make your fortune.


Start getting a job and you too might be able to buy a property here.

As can be seen from the above, the lackey criminals have to resort to tabloid sneer when logic attacks. Don't be fooled by these guys, the Ponzi property bubble in Poland is on its last legs and the developers who sabotage these sites are trying to squeeze the last bit of paste out of the tube.

DO NOT BUY PROPERTY IN POLAND UNTIL THE BUBBLE BURST.

Yussss buy now...Milky is right....

You calling me a criminal Mark? If so, say hello to my lawyers. Oh, sorry, I forgot you have no assets to take and no income apart from what your wife brings in.


Thing is Mark, no matter how much prices go down, you still won't be able to afford a place. Now go get a job, sad act.

If the truth be known the price of real estate in Poland has been the same in the last 2 years, sure some good properties in the central districts have gone up but not all. The problem remains as before is that the average pole cannot affort to purchase ie take a loan which will take him two life years to repay, for those phantom real estate agents who on a regular basis talk so much crap understand that overpriced home are reserved for the brits and those from a bankrupt country known as the United States ie USA.

That's not what we've seen in Warsaw over the last three years. Prices have been stable at the absolute best, with most places losing five to ten percent. Some of the more stupid projects have seen prices people will pay go down by even 15%.

yep, give or take, and depends what currency you are using, doubt if prices will go down, but on average will not go up... stand by I suppose from our investor friends who will have a different point of view, ready set go....

Pot, say hello to Kettle.

Was your Goebbels reference strictly necessary or can we add a tendency towards vile insinuation to the economic illiteracy we have already observed?


But the reverse is not true. Not all bubbles are Ponzis. Simple as that.

I have twice listed the definition of a Ponzi scheme and how each point fits a property market. You and Harry have given not single argument of why its not a ponzi. Nothing.

End of Discussion.


Well don't hold your breath, it could be years. Prices are falling anyway, maybe its a slow farting fall as opposed to a pop. Poland is likely to get a sustained economic growth and wages are very low, so another higher peak could be on its way in many years - when credit runs out it will crash.

Damn right, we haven't given a single one: we've given lots. Goodbye Mark's latest pen-name.

And twice you've been wrong. Harry has explained a Ponzi scheme to you repeatedly, as have I, and I provided a link for your education. I can't believe how obtuse you are on this point nor how ignorant you are about it. Are you really that afraid to admit that you're just flat out wrong?

Their job is to block the truth not spread the truth..


gravity always wins.


haha you're such a snark.


You guys are designed to tell lies.

Which explains why house prices now are far lower than they were in my grandfather's day.

Good to see that your mastery of economics is as sharp as ever Mark.


That's right Mark, the whole world apart from you is lying about the price of property, which is why you can't afford anything. Well, that and the more obvious reason: your inability to get and keep a job.

Well that depend on how you value houses. Paper money is not a real asset is it?(which, apparently is why property can't be a Ponzi scheme because its based on real assets )

In real terms, this is the price of property in Gold

moneyweek.com/~/media/MoneyWeek/2010/100524/10-05-26-MM01.ashx?w=450&h=308&as=1

Why do they have to realign with Polish salaries, you could have the same system in Poland as you have in Germany. Most people are renters. The same could happen in PL, the main problem is most people aspire to property ownership in PL, just like the UK and USA. Now you have regular middle management workers, holding down 2 or 3 mortgages, renting out a couple of properties. In Warsaw most people I come into contact with have at least 2 or three properties, there is a couple I know they have reasonable/salaries jobs. They have just moved back in with his mother, so they can rent out the property to cover the mortgage. These are the sacrifices Poles are willing to make. Raising interest rates will cause further problems.

I agree.

This defeats the whole purpose of buying a house/apartment for personal use...why bother buying if it is going to take 2 lifeyears to have full ownership...True in Germany most people rent... the question arises is how much rent is paid and what percentage is that of gross income.. It clearly is not good news for people starting off and the price of house generally going up, a further problem is the hugh costs associated with owning a house ie heating and water...The wild card will still hit Poland when people who own a house will not be able to maintain it after ceasing work, the pension will go no further than pay for few meals per day...