Demand for apartments low in Poland's main cities

I'm perfectly happy to put 100zl of my money where my mouth is: I just want to know precisely what the bet is now rather than in October 2012 when cms is looking for excuses for not paying out.

Now how about you Mark? You made a very clear statement that prices will go down by more than 20%: how fast are you going to back down when asked to put up or shut up?

Ladies and gents..

i could look after the cash till October 2012
could you start paying up..

Why not have a poll on predictions for Polish real-estate prices 12 months from now and another one for 24 months from now. Everyone has a week to make their prediction and state it,then come back to the page this time next year...No gambling involved just peoples word.

I like to play poker. Small stakes, only 20zl a game, but it makes all the difference if you believe in your cards enough to pay a little and see a few more. Otherwise you're just blowing smoke with nothing to lose.

Sort of like playing poker. Neither one is a sure thing, and this seems reasonable to me. It's put up or shut up time.

Well,anyhow... I say + 20% by this time next year .....

Something else I can ignore then.

Lets make it easier, say -20% in two years time. Maybe three.

Whats the difference?

You sound just like the American preacher who predicted the "end of the world" would happen yesterday. The second time this year.
The idea of making a prediction is to set a time for it to happen, which, is what Milky has been trying to do for the past three years.

By forcasting a fall in property prices of 20% over the next year he is actually, still 20% down on what he predicted three years ago (50%), so, things must be improving.

The Euro championship will take place in 2012
this may boost the property market..and rentals
some thing to think about before placing bets

Ohh well thats it then Pip has totally blasted us all out fo the water with that one. A builder and residential expert no less. Wow.

Yea , I was going to say that. I agree.


bollsh1t


Sounds like the attacks that were thrown at David McWilliams by developers and their brown envelope brigade,

whatever. my point is that this guy has actual experience and not some random newspaper article written by some bonehead who knows nothing about real estate.

I am listening to a radio station in Warsaw and they are doing a huge promotion on some development in Pruszkow. The size has gotten bigger and the price has gotten smaller. This is the leveling out due to saturated market- and apartments are not selling themselves like they did 4 years ago.

this is a fact. i'll post more pictures later to prove it.

if anyone whats pictures of developments in wroclaw... let me know.

So, the world did end yesterday!!! I knew I should not have bought that land!!!

Who would also like to promote the industry that pays his bread and butter.

The following areas are holding but not increasing, Centrum, Powisle,Zoliborz, Mokotow (dolne, gorne) Muranow and some parts of Ochota According to my sources houses and apartments outside of the aforementioned areas are in price deflation

fair enough, but that is with everything, no? just because he is speaking at a real estate conference as an expert in residential doesn't make people rush out and buy his product.

I can tell you from my own experience working with developers in Warsaw- there is still demand but it has changed. For example, I worked with a developer in Piaseczno- he has a few buildings there- four years ago they were selling themselves- now they are selling but the size selling is about 50 m2. People or families are not buying bigger apartments- so he actually split his larger 100 m2 apartments into two smaller ones.

I also worked with an American developer that had amazing success with his first osiedle. The second one- he can't give the houses away- the price started at the average for Warsaw and he has since lowered them 2 times. This is because the market is saturated and people are able to shop around for a better price in the same area.

I don't live in these areas and the houses in my area haven't gone down.

OK, you're on. The city I pick is Wroclaw and can we now agree price bands ? How about

250k or below
250k to 500k
500k to 750k
750k to 1m

and size bands

under 40 sqm
40-70sqm
70-100sqm

I dont know where you are going to get your banded info from. Please suggest a source. The avg per sqm in Wroclaw in September 2011 was PLN 6367 per tableaofert.pl quoed in GW on 21st October.

By a year we refer to 12 months, i.e. September 2012. And you are offering me 10-1, i.e. CMS wins 1000 PLN from your 100 if I am right.

To be settled over a pint in Jimmy Bradleys in October 2012 with the loser also buying the ale.

I'll post again on my bet in a few mins when I have read the paper.

If you go back to post 49 I never offered 10-1. I was asking you if you would offer 10-1! This bet is at evens for PLN 100 or I will give you 2-1 if the number of cities showing 20% falls is 5 rather than 7. In total with the other bet that puts 300 zlots of my hard earned on the table and 200 of yours.

to answer your questions

a) yes city limits
b) yes, but actually I would bet the same if we talked about houses, retail rents, warehouse rents, office rents, famland.
c) sale prices
d) yes PLN prices only
e) dunno, tableaofera.pl and the prices they had on Friday were

Katowice 5113
Krakow 6740
Lodz 5042
Poznan 6094
Gdansk 6094 (just coincidence that same as Poznan presumably)
Warsaw 7831
Wroclaw 6367

If you have a more reliable source then please suggest.

Again to be settled in a boozer next October ! Not sure if polishforums has any rules about internet gambling but we can take further discussions to PM.

good luck !

Note that I said one to ten with regard to the odds you are offering.


I'll have that bet!

As for source, I might well be able to get that data from the real estate firms I do a bit of work from if the data from tabelofert.pl suggests that the result is close.

Got to say that I'm really hoping I lose this bet: a +20% fall in Warsaw in the next year would save me +150,000zl, which would make this the best 200zl I've ever lost!

I'm not predicting anything specifically, but other than that, I just like a preacher whom predicted the end of the world. And no, your comparison isn't a bit stupid.

the above folks had better copy the posts. i have no idea what might happen to this thread in the next year.

Five days to go!

The phony grants have 3 months to go.

They are only phony if you could not get one, the ones that did seem quite happy.

So what? You paying out on that bet or what?

so let see for part two,

in my opinion even more in Gdansk for example about 35% in tow years.

Yes will be in Warsaw mid nov and we can settle it. First half presume you have won. On Wroclaw let's wait for data before i concede as it's absolutely tanking.

Milky is just angry that they haven't started the "houses for nothing" programme and that he was 25 years too late for the last promotion.


Not such a surprise - only using common sense here, Wroclaw has loads of jobs in entry level or 2nd level positions - and these are the people who previously would have been fine for mortgages under the old rules suddenly finding that they need a much larger deposit to get on the property market.

I wonder how SkyTower is getting on - anyone know?

Sounds good to me. But not in Bradleys. Somewhere which has better beer for half the price would be a more sensible choice I think.


That's fine with me. But from what I'm seeing (tabelaofert.pl/ceny-nieruchomosci,wroclaw) the y-on-y average for the city is -8.47% and Psie Pole (where-ever that is) is showing +1.14%. The biggest y-on-y fall appears to be in the 3-bed primary market in Krzyki: 17.73%.