The current property boom in Poland is a bubble

What a surprise, you two can't understand a chart showing the annual price change on a monthly basis isn't a chart of the price of housing.

So the prices started falling in 2007? and there was me thinking the Financial crash was in 2008? I never realised prices dropped the year before.

They didn't start falling until the line crossed 0, in 2008.

I think that the graph shows that prices starting falling around March/April 2008 (when the line crosses the '0' line).
Before then the downward turn just shows the prices were still increasing at a lower rate (ie: from +50% down to +1% increase).
I'm no expert, but that's what I'm reading from the chart.

And Lehmans never crashed until mid 2008. So everybody must have known at the beginning of the year. How come it was such a suprise?

Maybe to you but it was predicted years before.

If fact, read the first post of this thread -

It was put in motion by the reaction to the DotCom boom. Just as the money printing and zero interest rates policies will cause an even worse crash in the future.

Milky I will try and explain to you.

You use the world ' Bubble ' Pip uses the word ' cluster-fu*k and you are both correct.

The residential real estate market in Poland is a ' cluster-fu*k and this has created a bubble in prices on the secondary market. As with any tiger economy Poland experienced a change in prices due to transition into the EU in 2004, many investors considered Poland ' high risk' before EU entry.

The bubble has been created by Polish sellers and real estate agents due to lack of transparency, the agents have created the hype which many people have bought into, not only with buyers,also with sellers, in my opinion many of these companies should be sued by foreign and local real estate buyers, thats another story.

Agents created the hype in a very simple way, when new builds are constructed in an area they inform the sellers in the adjacent buildings ( old builds) they can expect to get the same price per m2 as the new build/reno's. I will give an example check ul Flory Warsazawa, one building has been fully renovated number 3, it has been 98% sold, the real estate agents have informed the sellers in number 5 and 7 they will get the same price per m2 as number 3 ( renovation/new build) which was 15 - 18,000 m2. Not a single flat in 5 and 7 have been sold during this period, although all of 3 has just about gone. The real estate agents in Warsaw and Poland have been playing this game for years. Now we do have a bubble, the bubble is the inflated sellers prices which is a cluster-fu*k created by R.E, this is the reason there is no liquidity in Polish secondary market. Nothing is priced to sell, it is all priced to buy new builds. Thats where the high coms are for the agents.

Good article in Gazeta today: says property price have returned to 2006 prices( if you take inflation into consideration) and will continue going down for the next 12 months and more. Experts predict prices will return to pre 2005.

Not everywhere, not so far anyway. Someone I know had access to some registry of prices last week, and was telling me flats in one of the better (but not the best) parts of Wroc (near the new church at Krzyka, and TVP Wrocław) are still selling at 8000 a sq m. They said that's not much off the peak price. They cited several examples there and in streets near the Skytower. I spoke to a surveyor earlier this morning and his exact words were "prices have come down a LITTLE bit". Make of that what you will. I still think rents and sale prices are disconnected from earnings. How long it can go on I don't know.

Maybe, I hear your pain but the facts speak for themselves. Prices in Krakow are now back to Q1 2006. You can find (2)the same size flat in a block near me and there can be 20-40% difference in asking price. so. there is a lot of madness and denial out there. I think the only way to find perspective is to look and the "actual" purchasing price for the last two years

Unfortunately, the figures I gave you were purchasing prices. Came as a bit of a shock to me. I like to think it's because there are few properties coming up for sale there, and perhaps that's why. Elsewhere here, things seem far less buoyant, with aged for sale banners a fairly common sight. But when you phone to enquire on price, you can see why the banners are yellowing or faded. If NBP reduces IRs, vendors who are leveraged will have even less pressure to sell -- the same disease as happened in Britain. On a plus note, I offered nearly 20% less on a rental and they accepted. AFAIK it had only been to let for a week.

Maybe so, but the bubble has burst in reality and those yellowing posters are going to fall down soon. Prices are already back to 2006 except Poznan they are still at 2007 according to the article in the paper

right, says the so called real estate expert. give your head a shake and leave the real estate to those who actually know what they are doing. There is more to Polish real estate than reading studies off the internet. Once you work in the industry then you would change your mind based on knowledge and experience.

you are basically a developer. I'm just informing people about an article in today's newspaper and how it claims the bubble bubble bubble bubble bubble

so an interior designer is basically a developer. No wonder you don't know what the feck a property bubble is.

and your husband is...................


you're the only one on here who has a problem with understanding bubbles.

my husband is a commercial real estate agent. He moves corporations and companies into office buildings. He leases office space.

still not a developer.

I understand perfectly what a bubble is and we are not in one. I guess if you keep saying that there is one...like for more than two year.....maybe it will come true.

maybe not but Poland is,

So, he has no 'expertise' in residential property which explains your lack of knowledge on the subject.

By your definition anyone who isn't a expert on residential property cannot give an opinion and you and your husband are NOT experts on residential property.

For sure there is a booming commercial property market, but we are NOT discussing commercial property in this thread

Not that I or anyone else is likely to take a opinion or comment seriously from anyone involved in real estate.. Bunch of lying idiots the lot of them.

I have found the majority of rental agents here to be exactly that. Promises were broken, BS was in abundance. Every bit as bad as the UK ones, if not worse. As I said at The Other Place. (I have found one, possibly, who is not too bad, but I won't know for sure until I get further into the deal. The rest were just try on merchants.)

There are people in my husbands office that work in residential. He knows exactly what is going on even though he doesn't work there. He is not an English teacher giving his two cents about real estate in Poland.

whatever you say. Keep telling everybody the sky is falling and we will keep buying properties.
I am cool with that.
Yes, commercial is booming and will continue to do so for some time. But what you are not factoring in is the companies that rent space in Poland also hire locally. So people start making decent money and then they buy new flats. Let's face it, nobody wants to live in a communist block- they want out, even if it means going to a smaller place in a new building. This keeps the residential market out of a bubble. The market at this moment is saturated so people have more selection and the prices are decreasing. Even developers of houses are offering bonuses. I know of one that was offering a car and another that was offering full fit out.

What I don't understand is why you guys continue to deny these facts. People are still buying properties.

Rental agents in Poland are a joke. If you go back on any real estate thread that I have written you will see that I have always said just that.

Their fees are stupid. A full months rent from the landlord and renter for opening a door? please.
They are such poor quality because they have never been regulated. Since the fall of communism residential agents have made their own rules. They are an unprofessional joke.

Some English teachers know more about the world of finance and commerce than those who are supposedly paid to, in fact, Pip. Someone who does something for a hobby might be a better sponge for knowledge than someone who's bored with it as a 9 to 5. But anyway, I think PW is an economist or businessperson.

it is actually you that has no knowledge on the subject. what do you do exactly? English teacher. That makes you practically an expert in real estate in Poland.

so yes, my commercial real estate husband who works in a firm that has a division in residential has less knowledge than you do.

I guess this explains why you have a problem with reality

stupid, sad and hilarious all at the same time.

I'll believe an organization that provides consistent statistics based on real data over a long period, eg

media.reas.pl/file/mediakit/476871/ae/reas-residential-market-in-poland-q4-2012.pdf

I disbelieve everything a real estate agent says, because it will always be the same. -

Things are good,
now is a right time to buy,
its different this time/place,
You can't lose money on Bricks and Mortar
Buy now before you miss out

Etc

i.e sell-serving ********.


Yeah, don't tell Queen Canute

agreed

REAS is an advisory company specializing in issues relating to the residential market. Since 1997, we have been cooperating with developers, banks, investors and other entities operating in the housing sector. In 2007, REAS became a partner of Jones Lang LaSalle, the global leader in advisory services in the commercial real estate market.

Are you fcking kidding me? Jones Lang LaSalle. Good Grief. You do know they are brokers and my husband knows each and every person who wrote this. "cooperating with developers, banks and investors." open your eyes.

Have you got a better graph?

for your reading pleasure: wbj.pl/realestatenews-62143-premium-residences-still-selling-well-in-warsaw.html