Banks in Poland selling fewer mortgages in 2011, down 49%

are you sleeping with developers or something or why are you .............

Pip 's husband is in commercial Real Estate i read so of course with so many new businesses opening in Poland and looking for office space ,this segment of the market might be ok(less speculation, no Swiss francs based morgages and not enough commercial space actually in Poland?) but for Residential Real Estate it is another story ...

yes, it is another story- it is not the same, it is not in a bubble- it is leveling out- the market is saturated and buyers are able to get better prices. ad nauseum

so, you admit it's a real-estate bubble?

no. there was a huge increase in price in the early 2000's but now that the market is saturated and building is constant- developers have had to lower their prices to accommodate this. There is some construction that hasn't changed their prices at all- sea towers in Gdynia- it is not selling but the developer hasn't lowered his prices- also the area next to sea towers has been purchased by Ikea which will also be sea front residential- I am sure the prices will be staggering and will sell- because it is Ikea.

A bubble is defined as high prices followed by a huge decrease- the prices have lowered and leveled- there is no huge decrease.

You must have missed the article in Gazeta Wyborcza on Saturday that talked of falls of 40-50% in land prices around major cities. Its not apartments obviously but it is going to give people much more reason to buy and build even if it means a few years of grief with the builders.

And from personal experience I'm looking at a commercial property now - just had a professional valuation done that is more than 30% less than the original asking price and 10% less than what I was going to offer. Even I was shocked by the negative sentiment in it !

Gazeta Wyborcza- you can't be serious. It is not falling if it wasn't worth that to begin with. If the price of the land was hugely inflated than I would say that a drop of 50% is more like land returning to fair market value.

Well 2004-07 is the time period actually.


ahhah, so, you admit there was a huge increase, but it won't collapse, therefore it's not a bubble. I think only people really coerced and aroused by the hype of real-estate prn would buy into such illogical ranting.


So, you made a similar remark about Wikipedia, who is a reliable source?

How many times have we heard that drivel in the UK. What goes up must come down.

Seriously ask yourselves why lending has fallen? Could it be because the banks know something you don't want to contemplate. Problably!

It's like listenning to English estate agents. The closed doors protecting Polands economy will open and the inevitable will happen.

seriously? I could write a wikipedia entry if I wanted to. Don't you remember the whole Jean Michel Jarre fiasco? I would respect a real estate source in Poland.

how about this one.

media.reas.pl/en/pr/196409/residential-market-in-poland-q3-2011

that should be good reading.

I'd say . The crash is buildings delivered is startling. -50% from peak?

- Falls in Krakow are competitively less than other areas on a price per m2 basis. Wroclaw.. wow.

shall we lay this horse to rest?

So your happy with this quote ? provided by REAS

"general correction of the level of prices which in the years 2006-2008 experienced strong upward pressure due to speculative bubble and demand for cheap money".

absolutely.

Or could it be that the banks made some dodgy loans/investments which are causing liquidity problems + the new financial regulations which are insisting on 9% capitol reserves. If banks have been leveraging the debts because of greed, they are going to have a problem lending any more money. Its not a case of "what the banks know", its "what we don't know about the banks". How much toxic debt do they still have on their books?, how much soveriegn debt that will never be repaid?, any more 50% writedowns?

Hah you'll never get away with that whilst milky's still hasnt bought a property, that dudes been banging the same drum for about three years. Somebody just give him a cheap house in Lublin so he can shut the hell up.

GGGG I must be doing something right so...The same people have been attacking my view that there is a property bubble, through out this time period but.....!!!!!!! are they not annoying you as well??? with their persistent, developer spin???; ooh whoops, I forgot you are one of them.

your view!!! and you are unanimous in that view!!! Well done pratt.

and you are a developer

So I know what I am talking about. What are your qualifications?, none, oh well, people must be flocking to you for advice.
Better to be quite and thougt a fool, than open your mouth and prove it.

history shall expose you.

did you even read the article?

History will remember what I built and contributed here in Poland. You will be another socialist non-entity, living in rented accomodation, who thinks the world owes him a living.

People live in houses, not dreams.


Pip, the OP was about mortgages and the banks not lending. Milky has managed to turn it into his pet theory of a "property bubble", of course he did not read it, he is not interested in anything that does not agree with his views. He is a true socialist, read his previous posts and you can feel in his words, the envy and jealousy for anyone that owns property in Poland. Everybody that disagrees with him is either a "thatcherite", a "developer", a paid "developers lackey" ( good socialist word there, I have not heard it for years) the new one just for you pip, you must be "sleeping" with a developer.

This is the basis for his arguments, this and 3 year old links.

Quite right Mark, now that we have finally got you to commit to a firm percentage fall by a firm date. I can hardly wait for next October!

come on lads stick to the topic .

any recent numbers to add to either camp's case?

i did... then set a challenge... which of course u ignored.

Yes, in Pip's link.

media.reas.pl/file/mediakit/351422/22/reas-residential-market-in-poland-q3-2011.pdf

Since 2007:

Page 2 , Dwelling 'delivered' down around 50%. Stock of new unsold apartments up 500% to 50K
Page 3, Falls per m2 vary wildly -
Wroclaw down 26%.
Warsaw down 11.2%.
Krakow down 8.6%

The perception of a bubble and a crash would depend on exactly which region you are looking at.

^ "since 2007?" That seems to confuse the issue more than anything if the talk is about the trend this year...

Quite a few of the posters on this thread have commented that what happens in the USA and the UK will inevitably happen in Poland. The attached link to an artical in the Mail today, might explain to you why prices are not crashing in Poland.

"In 1968, when the first of the Baby-Boomers were beginning to think about settling down, 425,000 homes were built in Britain. Last year, the total was just over 100,000 - fewer than in any year since 1923. With figures like that, of course, the cost of putting a roof over your head rises."

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2055497/JEREMY-PAXMAN-Baby-Boomers-selfish-generation-history.html

Poland has a population which is 2/3rds that of the UK, but, it has a much older/poorer quality, housing stock. Whilst I disagree with Paxman on much of the artical, his comments on housing and affordability are unfortunately, very truthful.