Just by gauging the interest in this forum says all about property in PL

I remember reading this subforum and other sites during the summer of '08, how busy it was, the energy, everybody going crazy, looking back now I

Sure its winter, but here you go, first quarter 2010 and this forum is pretty much dead as are a lot of other psuedo Polish property websites. I just checked out a few I had bookmarked a long long time ago and most havent had an update or post in months

What does it tell you? Property is not so rosey at the moment thats for sure, the whole world is in a financial shite storm.

Nobody can sell proprety at the moment regardless of where its located, and even if somebody wanted to purchase who the hell is going to lend the money? Not many individuals have cash saved for buying houses etc..

Some desperate sellers are unloading properties but at silly prices, most will just stay put and ride out the storm.

The monetary system is flawed, the latest finacial crisis episode is just the beginning if you ask me. Its all going to come crumbling down at some point. It is simply not sustainable in the long run, even infaltion is just a short term cure.

Its nowhere close to rosey, its a downright toilet, and this concept of real estate 'investment' is going to take a lot of Poles to the poor house.


With hopes at still selling their flat at a profit? I have no agenda in this, Im not involved in the real estate market that much, but god damn most property was and still is severely overvalued. What I would be even more alarming are the serious demographic changes that are so obvious in Poland. In 10-15 all of Poland will be one giant Berlin.

what do you mean? Oh, property prices wise?

Only a goon would purchase property now. Wait until the end of 2011.

I think he means stagnant, German property has never been popular for investment. Its a totally different perspective over there.


Depends on the situation and mortgage currency, do you have a CHF mortgage by any chance?

Most will not have an option unless bankruptcy is a viable solution.

Not just price wise, as in totally flat for years and years, but that there will be a huge surplus of apartments on the market, the only active buyers/renters will be dominated by those in their 20s/30s and therefore will largely be a renters market.

Look, the older generation is dying in droves, few Poles can make it past 75, almost all live in communist blocs or spacious prewar apartments by themselves, one of the benefits of communist 'housing for all'. Most will be inherited and, boom, a substantial part of the population will have their housing taken care of. Why drown in a sea of loans when your grandparents left your family 2 apartments to choose from?

I guess it also goes without saying that most parents that had or will have children at most 2 children, but the single child is predominant. So when those grandparents die and their parents in 20 years, that single child will have anywhere from 3-4 pieces of real estate in their name Not bad.

But thats not even that important, the problem in Poland is that the population peaked in 1995 and has been dropping since, the birth rate is now at a 1:1 ratio with the death rate, but that the birth rate in Poland is dropping like a rock. In 10 years all studies point to the 1:2 ratio at the minimum.

So whats that mean? In 10-15 years, when those who went crazy are only halfway through paying their mortgages at 10k zl/m2, there will be very little demand on property ownership.

I have no idea how this could shape up, but you can see its not looking good. Coupled with the fact that there are very few migrants coming into Poland which did in fact save a few Western european countries, that a lot of Poles want to leave Poland, and that Polish society, culture, and language isnt exactly 'open' and easily accessible, and that government policies on economic growth/poverty reduction/improving quality of life are at best a joke, well...

edit:


No, like I said I dont have any real interest in or connections with real estate, no mortgage, just an inherited house.

Youre painting a pretty dark picture there, you can argue for and against with so many issues here. Most of those communist blocks arent going to last much longer.

As the economy improves Poles will demand better living conditions the old 40 m2 apartments will become rabbit hutches of the past.

Inner city houses will always be a wise investment in Poland.

They are rock solid. I just recently bought one in Prague with a friend, cheaper than renting.


That is the only thing I can agree with you on, but I agree 100%. Inner city old buildings and undeveloped land are great investments here.

I can't speak for elsewhere, but in Poznan, the communist era flats and blocks are in better shape than many from the post-communist era. Where's dnz, I'm sure he'll love to tell everyone about the build quality of flats that he's had in Poland :/

I know its bleak, but for me those are serious fundamental issues that require long term planning and a tremendous amount of time and money to correct. I dont think a single person in Poland seriously considered what life will look like in 10 years in this country. Of course I wish it was otherwise. And anyway, so what, most people in 10-20 years will want to dump their old commie apartment for something new, then who will buy the old apartments that are falling apart? Theyll have no value, and look at how many could come onto the market.

Most of the communist buildings were built with an life span of 30-40 years, most build in the 70s. Some are already approaching 50. The problem is, how do you destroy a bloc owned by 100 people and then build a new one? And I doubt those who took on 30/40 year mortgages to buy a flat in one of those buildings are considering leaving any time soon.

edit:
I know about the quality issues on new projects, my cousins 5 year old flat has severe structural and plumbing issues, which make you wonder how long they will actually last. Which goes right back to the question, whos going to buy this crap in 10-30 years? Sure some of the communist blocs were built rock solid, using quality bricks and concrete and overengineered. But not all.

But for a reason. The German attitude towards owning real estate is completely different to the USA for example. Buying a house is usually a once in a lifetime event in Germany, whereas people in the US until recently used to move every 4 to 5 years into a new and bigger home - building their nest-eggs.

I love most of the pre war buildings with the fantastic arcitecture they are rock solid but the communist blocks i dont think so. Granted some are well built but most are falling apart they are ugly, badly designed and have no place in modern society.

Have you seen the monstrosities surrounding Wroclaw Rynek on the North side?

Are you telling me you bought an apartment in something like this:

• 
  Communist block
  

Quite a large part of Biskupin consists of panelaks, and I like it. Lots of space, not the prettiest things, but they're painting them, adding balconies...It's not too bad.


something like that :)
maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=50.026456,14.492179&spn=0,359.991664&z=17&layer=c&cbll=50.026603,14.491779&panoid=4NghWsu6wr6eOACpQ67HXA&cbp=12,218.07,,0,-14.82

Once in 3 lifetimes. They pass their mortgages on to the grandkids in Germany.

I live in a 50m flat in OD Town Gdansk. I have a photo of the building circa 1960. It's not a commie block and is still structurally very sound. I want to buy it, maybe after the summer, maybe a little later. I don't intend to buy it as an investment but as a place to live in for the rest of my life. Even if they're cheaper, new flats have no appeal to me because of their location and poor quality. Not for me, thanks.

Not really.

How is that even possible when an average home costs about 1000e/m2, attainable for lots of Germans. I think you read that wrong, they probably change mortgage lenders 3 times or more seeking better rates.

The really messed up thing is that real estate doesn't cost much more in Germany than here.

I don't understand how Poles pay for their homes. The flat costs compared to the salaries do not mesh. They couldn't possibly pay a lot of those prices off in a lifetime of working.

I also notice a lot of cheating in regard to taxes and who "owns" the flat. Everyone I knew with a flat had it "owned" on paper by some dead grandma or some other odd arrangement to prevent some inheritance tax etc.

And that's been my argument for a long long time. If the fundamentals don't make sense, than either something huge isn't being reported, or it's unsustainable.

No, i did not read it. I live in Germany.

Majority are 100 year mortgages.

No they're not. There are 100 year leases.

Name one bank that does a 100 year mortgage.

Sparkasse, Volksbank.

All my friends with a German Mortgage have 100 year mortgages. In UK its mostly around 35 years.

Do you have any links? I have honestly never heard of a 100 year mortgage.

Oh wait I heard of that, but those arent mortgages mortgages in the same way as in Poland, the US, the UK etc, those are those inheritance deals or those infinite mortgages the Swiss have.

No links, just my friends have these mortgages. In my area they are quite popular.

German banks are Franchises, maybe its only certain branches do these mortgages. I don't live near a big city.

Just saying, because I wasn't offered a 100 year mortgage... I did get a killer 30 year on though.

Nah. The majority of mortgages are 25 or 30 years for sure. Never heard of a 100 year mortgage before, to be honest.

buyassociation.co.uk/property/text/germany/buyassociation/buying-a-property-in-germany.html

Most people with decent houses built them themselves or bought a dzialka and built as and when they could afford to. Until recently you could offset the total cost of a build against tax. Very helpful to the wealthy.