EUR set to rise vs GBP and USD in short-medium term, then crash USD set to rise generally this year, then crash next year GBP set to limp on anaemically for 2-3 years.
Zloty? Alll depends on the international appetite for risk - which will be low. The only saving grace is that all major currencies are attempting to devalue in a crazy race to the bottom. Wild fluctuations are possible over the next couple of years.
Fundamentally, the Zloty is undervalued - but this all relies on continued sensible management by the Government.
The market dictates the value of a currency. Poland will have more problems come september 2010 and we will see Euro/Plz 4.40 to 4.60 and Usd/Plz 3.60 to 3.80
Poland's central bank bought foreign currency to weaken the zloty for the first time since 1998 and said it may do so again, putting investors on notice it will seek to prevent exchange rate gains harming economic growth.
The worst thing about all this currency volatility is the amount of consumer debt that is financed in CHF and EUR. Last big fall happened in conjunction with rate cuts, so it didn't hurt too much. This time rates can't go any lower... Hope everyone that has foreign currency denominated debt is hedging somehow...
They're not, this is the frightening thing. Just goes to show how suicidal it actually is to take on debt in a different currency - even when the fundamentals show one thing, the market can say something completely different.
The only other real comparable currency, the Forint, is also all over the place.
Minor currencies like the zloty are subject to wild fluctuations because they are not very liquid - few people buy and sell them compared to the euro, dollar and yen.
Long term the zloty is appreciating as the general economic level in Poland improves. This is why we have a sterling range of roughly 4.15 - 5.15, not 6 - 7. Long term, obviously, we are all dead!! The appetite for risk is the biggest element in the short term ... and if certain gurus like Robert Prechter are to be believed we are headed for bad times indeed. Keep abreast of the financial news by reading Zero Hedge on the net.
Individuals make very bad investors, as they are driven by greed, fear, regret and fear of regret. I meant to buy gold 10 years ago and didn't, because I was afraid. Damn. However, I have made good on other things :) But you know what? I only remember the times I lost out!
The market dictates the value of a currency. Poland will have more problems come september 2010 and we will see Euro/Plz 4.40 to 4.60 and Usd/Plz 3.60 to 3.80
The euro's downward momentum is gathering strength, raising the risk that the single currency overshoots estimates of fair value and hits parity with the U.S. dollar within the next year.The euro last traded below parity in June 2002, before a period of sustained dollar weakness saw the single currency appreciate for six years to a lifetime high above $1.60 in 2008.
If it reaches 5.24 over the next month or so my post in March of 20% profit will become good, i mean come on 500,000 large would make a profit of 100,000 within 4 months.
Would i have done it? yeh i think i would have. I like risks.
I've given up even caring about the exchange rates...By and large I am in Poland, so my PLN still buys the same quantity of goods if it's worth 4.15 or 5.50.
Of course I'm just trying to keep positive and sane, whilst seeing my money devalue 15 - 20% against other currencies :(
I'm Sure 12 months down the line we will be looking at a completely different picture!! No way will it be 5.05, but probably more like 6.50 at the rate it's going :))
I've given up even caring about the exchange rates...By and large I am in Poland, so my PLN still buys the same quantity of goods if it's worth 4.15 or 5.50.
Some of us get paid in US Dollars, have debts in Sterling and are spending in Zloty :)
I don't expect the Zloty weakness to last long, its risk aversion and people seem to love risk as it pays.
I don't expect the Zloty weakness to last long, its risk aversion and people seem to love risk as it pays.
Expect it to last a long as the Euro crisis. The financial experts are forecasting Euro/USD parity in the first quarter of 2011. The zolty will be holding the shirt tails of the Euro.
A discussion I started some months ago about which way the Pound/Zloty was going to go - has anyone checked lately - I would not have belived it - 4.30ish to the Pound - wonder if it was because of our hung parliament ..
Currently standing at 4.50**. Hasn't been 4.30 since April/May - and the UK wasn't the story here. The change since then (up to 5.07) was due to dumb **** investors tarring Poland with the same brush as Greece because they are both in the Central and Eastern Europe section on Bloomberg. Correlation with the Euro's decline against the pound was strong at this time.
Question remains though - what is a 'healthy' long-term level for GBP/PLN? Clearly the 4.04 we had just before everything went tits up two years ago is out, so what then? 4.40? 4.30? Frankly the Euro rate is the one that matters (as this is where the bulk of Poland's import-export activity happens - and, of course, the volatility in that just has to come down if Poland's joining the Euro isn't going to de-stabilise an already creaking currency yet further).
A (quietly hoping it doesn't drop too much as have some GBP income, but hedged just in case)
I have Pounds to exchange again and thought I'd throw it up here, hmm.. I could use a better expression...
Anyways, any predictions? The Zloty has been strong for a while now.
And with the soaring prices for petrol if the Zloty drops again (which it will I think to 5) are petrol prices to go up even further? (I feckin hope not or else I am going to get one of those plug in cars or something)
Anyways, any predictions? The Zloty has been strong for a while now.
My opinion is that the Zloty will appreciate short term, as interest rates rise. Q/3 we may see some weaking as we get closer to the elections especially if it is a close race.
I have Pounds to exchange again and thought I'd throw it up here
I'm going the other way PLN - GBP and am thinking its a pretty good rate (for me) at the moment, its been hovering between 4.54 - 4.7 for a couple of months now. Anything below 4.55 is good for me, if i were you id wait till 4.7+, if nothing else short term trends suggest it will pop up there for a few day's over the next couple of months.
Against the dollar its (£) at an 18month high, driven by speculation of an interest rate rise, which with todays lower than expected inflation figures (interest rate rise less likely) means the pound will go down.
The Zloty rate is driven by the Polish economy and interest rates. Just remember that it was classed as one of the worlds most undervalued currencies at the start of the year, so it will keep getting stronger.
Food prices are almost the lowest in the EU (-35% below average), plenty of opportunity for the Zloty to rise to fix that anomaly.
Against the dollar its (£) at an 18month high, driven by speculation of an interest rate rise, which with todays lower than expected inflation figures (interest rate rise less likely) means the pound will go down.
The Euro, and most other currencies, are at near yearly highs against the dollar...CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD.
The Zloty hasn't moved much against the other major currencies.
Just wanted to give this thread its yearly update:)) All in all a volatile, yet expected, last 8 months for the Zloty against the Pound. Going from around 4.40 to 5.45 and then down to its current state of around 5.00. Surely it can only go back to around 4.50?? Difficult to predict with all the present market turmoil, as every month seems to throw up another crisis. Any ideas from any interested members (Wroclaw)?
