Zloty exchange rates - is this just speculation?

Its idiotic thinking like that that drives assets bubbles and delusions of wealth.

Look at the UK today and what do you see? a booming stock markets and house prices rises of 10%. What you don't see is the 200billion pounds the UK government printed and dumped on the streets to keep the spending party going (and labour in power).

In a few days that will stop, taxes will rise (5p basic rate rise), a million more government employees will be on the dole, interest rates will rise house prices crash another 40%. Its going to be **** in the UK for 10-years.

The UK is in the worst financial situation of any other EU country besides Greece, bets against its are rocketing. Pound is going for 1.31 against the dollar in the next four months.

Poland in comparison has a booming economy, little state or personal debt and the one of the worlds most undervalued currencies.

The Pound is going to crash, the only reason the Zloty is falling now is a flight to less risky currencies (dollar) at a time of panic - but a thirst for risk returns very quickly.


Whereas a beer in London bar costs around 16.5 zloty and 23 zloty for the Chinese dish. The pound isn't so much neurotic as vastly over valued.

Hmmm, exchange rates.

It's so easy to be clever about them, far harder to make money out of fluctuations. I took a punt on buying dollars with pounds a few months back and ended up taking a handsome profit. I felt like hanging on a bit longer, I must admit but chickened out. Yes, I do think the pound will fall to $1:40 but lack the guts to turn down an easy profit now.

UK interest rates will be going up this year due to the govt's cost of borrowing - the markets will force the BoE's hand - but the story given will be rising inflation :)

The zloty is a funny kettle of fish and depends on the market's appetite for risk. Essentially, I only buy/sell PLN when we have what I feel are extremes. I bought euros at PLN 3.25. I wouldn't sell PLN for any of: GBP, USD, EUR at present. I thought about it a few months ago, but chickened out. Damn - yet another missed opportunity!

I find these things very stressful - I'm not cut out for investing.

Just back from the Kantor and got 4.77 PLN to 1 GBP.

Might import some sterling

Very true! It's nothing when you win in one bet. It's still nothing when you win in five bets out of ten. It's good when you win in eight or nine bets out of ten.


To be good in investing you have to stick to self-discipline, not to your emotions. So they say!

You could have tried in vain to tell that to my wife before I earned enough to pay for our next holiday in ... err ... Greece.

Now she's happy, of course.

wow and to think just a few days ago $1=2.96zł and now it's 3.33zł!!

haha Greece really ****ed it up for everyone(well, xept the ones whos going to Poland with Dollars :P)

Collapsed to 4.90zl now, lunacy!

Lunacy, I'm freakin loving it!! :) Looks like I went back to the UK at the right time eh, good thing I kept the bank account open over there. Think I'll spend the next 10mins on the Deutsche transferring some cash over ;)

If youre earning Zloty, honestly i only changed £600 today. I need to bring some more out around £10K, im thinking it will stay around 4.8 but im really not sure right now. Wouldnt like to call it either way right now.

I remember a few months ago, being confident that it wouldn't go below 5 - but it did!

I wouldn't even begin to guess now - seeing it collapse to 4.2 against the Euro shows how wrong I've been so far!

The problem is that the Polish fundamentals are sound - but the market is simply scared of what could happen.

Luckily I managed to find some tenants for the farm house I renovated in Ireland, if not I'd be up **** creek right now having to sell the place bar it cost me feck all to buy. The current market out there is sh1t, during the "boom" so many people built big 4-5 bedroomed houses in the country thinking they could sell them for a quick profit. Boo hoo to them. Market crashed and those with sense will now buy at rock bottom prices and wait for the markets to improve. If you're prepared to be patient and wait you could make a real killing.

Was thinking of skipping Krakow when I move back and settling in Wroclaw, if I do I'll certainly give you a bell for a few pints bro.

"Happiness more or les its just a change someting im my liberty", im wasted and the babies gonna wake me up in about an hour so i may aswell stay awake for the next hour or two anyway.

Ohh crap, laters all. Im just so tired all the time.

Listening to the Verve "Happiness" makes me even more tired.

You sound like a spokesperson for some financial company, true poles were not sucked into borrowing like there American friends, but you fail to understand that poles have a huge debt in the form of credit cards/loans etc, the government has also borrowed a lot which nobody wants to talk about, I don't think the zlote is undervalued it will always be accessed against the euro which is current loosing its confidence. Poland has a stable government which is good, but also a place for cheap labour, this is something that foreign investments companies love.. prepare for the zlote to further go south.

4.96zl at the moment, just giving me one huge headache....February last year springs to mind... 5.50zl anyone.

Surely this must recover over the next few months?? Where it ends before it recovers is another matter.

How the Zloty can be losing against EVERY currency is ridiculous!!

It's not really that ridiculous - it's a small currency in a country that hasn't got the financial muscle to defend it. It's why Euro membership is going to be so problematic for Poland - when it ties into the Euro in ERM2, everyone will be trying to attack it as the instability is well documented.

Fundamentally, the Zloty is undervalued - but this all relies on continued sensible management by the Government.

When foreign companies invest in countries with cheap labour the currency appreciates, thats a well trodden path - so your conclusion is wrong.PLN is suffering from risk aversion, I expect its will recover soon-ish. maybe a few weeks.

You must know the story of a guy who wanted to throw himself out of the widow of a tall office building in London as a result of a stock market crash, but while he was struggling with the double glazing, the market recovered !?

... and the Zloty at the moment is up at 4,81 from yesterday's closing at 4,92. On the way to recovery?

wow and to think just a few days ago $1=2.96zł and now it's 3.33zł!!

haha Greece really ****ed it up for everyone(well, xept the ones whos going to Poland with Dollars :P)

It was not Greece, don't be so naive.

George Soros put billions in bets AGAINST the Euro, and then released all his dogs to give stupid propagandah how the euro is going to end...

Look at Greece, their national public debt is 112%, while Japan has 195% public debt,
UK has about 395% and US has over 540%...

It is all huge speculation by the multibillionaire George Soros and Citigroup... large american banks

PLN is losing against EVERY CURRENCY is the direct effect of one month ago assasination of NBP chief along with Kaczynski and the others

What complete bull crap, unlike the Greeks, Brits and others the Poles are far more fiscaly disciplined.


you have heard wrong, the opposite is in fact the case!


Please why don't you try to hide it a bit, the inferiority complex is eating you alive! Your whole world view shattered, what a shame, get use to it.

Certainly a start, let's just hope we can end the day somewhere close to that figure, as that will be a major confidence boost for the PLN.

Crazy markets, when currencies are fluctuating 10% - 15% in a week. As Wroclaw boy astutely pointed out a couple of months back, we were close to the all time peak against the GBP, so it could really only go one way, it's just the sharp decline which is alarming.

True, except its gaining against every currency and there was no assassination.

the value of the zlote is loosing ground, get your facts right!

PLN LOST against USD from 2.80 1 month ago, to almost 3.30 now.

That is 18.71% LOSS in just 1 month !

Making it anually like all interest bank rates are written,
that is a anual devaluation of 224.52%

And I finished University of Statistics and Mathematics,
so you have to take into account the exact numbers and facts Peter

The zloty is over valued against the pound. The weak pound is more a sign of the UK's recent economic weakness and as such I expect it to return to the PLN4.8 - PLN4.9 with it occasionally drifting to to PLN5 - 5.5 in speculation. The Polish economy on the ground does not seam to reflect the official view so my guess is that the Polish economy is lagging behind the economic problems the rest of Europe has endured.

expect the US dollar to be in the mid 3's in a few days...

Its was increasing against every currency when I posted, by several percent. If fact at any point in time its can be either up or down - regardless of the person who is charge of the central bank.

First, I wonder why you calculate the annual devaluation rate of the Zloty with the accuracy of the second decimal point (224.52%), yet you asign your dollar/zloty ratio not a too precise value of "almost 3.30" ? Which is this famous University of Statistics and Mathematics that has taught you to be so imprecise in one thing against being so exact in the other?

Second, the present rate of the Zloty against the Dollar has gone down to 3,0452, so it may effectively ruin your calculation of 18.71% loss in a month, I am afraid.

Could you please calculate the new exact monthly and yearly devaluation rates of the Zloty?

I seem to always be on the bad end of this. When I am in Poland the dollar is weak and I lose out on the exchange, but then it goes back up when I am not there. Figures.

Kursy średnie (2010-05-21)
EUR 4,1428
USD 3,3143
CHF 2,8767
GBP 4,7761

nbp.pl

Time to exchange.