Is it possible that Polish president was assasinated? If so then, by whom?

I think it's these "guys", the ICAO icao.int/icao/en/m_about.html


I'd call the video by the kid, pretty strong proof of no fog, at least. How much further the Russians are lying IDK...

Convex, do you read/speak Russian? That's indeed the most worthy review I've seen so far about the tragedy. Did you run into smth like that in Polish/English. Just would like everyone here to be aware.

Оля has hit about 300 messages within several days in a few topics. I suspect she's on the same crack as our flying friend from Sarmatia...

Convex or skysoulmate will no doubt keep us straight on the technicalities. What I have read regarding TAWS is that, in certain aircraft and even in certain locations in the world (I didn't understand that bit from John Cox), it can distort the altimeter and give the pilot the mistaken belief that they are still sufficiently high up. TAWS will be key here as, theoretically anyway, the pilot should have been briefed and known what to do in the event of any distortion and thus acted accordingly.

In many job interviews, there is the FAQ 'what would you do if......'? This has high relevance to aviation as there are many variables which the pilot has to contend with, especially if they wish to broaden their repertoire with various aircraft. I'm guessing that panic cost them dearly. He likely lost his head when he first clipped the trees. David Duke said that the trees were fragile but the wing would have been affected. That's another angle.

yeah that may prove there was no fog..but i don't really trust a video showing an other video played in the small lcd monitor of a photographic camera..i mean, those lcd may have few colors and may not show all the details..i'd love seeing that vid playing directly..if that is really a video showing the last minutes of the president's airplane, then why they've given so few importance to it? No newspaper have reported it's exitence from what i know, just that intrview..that's strange.. :( we'd need to know more about this..

Anyway all media are stating visibility was reduced to 500-400 mt or even worse..an other eye witness states the visibility was even around 50 meters..! Is it possible that the fog spreaded irregularly? Anyway i think medias have taken official weather forecasts..i kind of trust those ones..!

When he clipped the trees the plane was decending , and even if he saw them coming it was too late to do anything about it....i imagine he tried applying power and tried to take evasive action , but this is a heavy aircraft , it does not respond like a fighter , it was most likely doomed from the moment it hit the first ground object...Once they lost a portion of wing it was going to crash , and probably they could do nothing to prevent it....

Ehm, if this is such a strong proof, why is the video of the mulleted boys so widely ignored in the press? Nobody seems to care much about it, while in fact, if this would be indeed the last imagery of the plane, it would be shown over and over again in the media.

In short, it was an accident, nothing more,nothing less.

>^..^<

M-G (pls stop coming up with all kinds of "proof" that don't make sense anyway)

i agree..the antenna was like 50 or 30 meters high, the trees like 20 mt. ...for such an airplane that was pretty close to the ground wasn't it..

Take a look on photos from the site (made and placed to the net by local Smolensk guy):
picasaweb.google.ru/Amlmtr/MWzNeJ#

All (or almost all) trees which were touched by plane are there - with some additionall guesses about trajectory changes.

based on what? Is this your conclusion, or the official conclusion? 99% the information you get is given by controlled sources. Never trust the source- follow the money, then you will peel back the many layers of the onion and find the reason behind it.

Good idea. There is a problem for reverse modelling also - different groups will anyway exploit this event for their interests - was it an accident or not.

I'm interested to have a good weather tomorrow = doesn't mean I influense it if it will be really good...

Base on no motive and not all incident has a conspiracy behind maybe?

Here are my thoughts on it all, starts with post #102 (yes, it's a long reply ;)

Wasn't there, don't have all the facts so these are just my and my other pilot friends' personal thoughts.

Keeping them all in my prayers.

Yup, I read that other post. I appreciate your analysis :) :)

Do not forget reports that Russians removed ILS AFTER Tusk's "official" invited visit, even though even Kaczynski was still to arrive. If any thing makes them look guilty, it's this. As for the question, if boy's video is evidence of no/little fog--why are there no more reports about it? Then ask yourself this, where is boy from? Russia. Would video help or hinder the "official" Russian of "fog" and "pilot error"? And is Russian media unbiased? They've been peddling in circles fog.... pilot error... repeated landing attempts...etc. Certainly the boy's video has been confiscated--soldiers were present with them.

They BRING movable ILS there for Putin/Tusk visit. But I don't think that FSO nave movable ILS in their deep pockets, so most likely they "borrowed" it from some other strip, together with some personnel.


It is not evidence of anything.
Do you want perfect video of some overhead TU-154 landing to SVO? Will you be able to determine by this video - was it filmed near SVO or near XUBS? You may be able to exclude (as impossible) some combinations of time of day and landing strip, because of wrong sunlight angle, but nothing more.

Yes Olga, because an ILS system can be easily moved from place to place.

This "fact" is one of the most stupid things I've heard yet on this forum.

Not if the pilot was expecting the ILS to be in place, as it was when he flew Tusk 3 days earlier--which is the point I am making here. Refrain from resorting to insults--it reflects poorly on you, not I.

On another note: What if the approach was changed from an ILS (Tusk's visit) to a PAR approach (Kaczynksi's)?

""They're available at some military airfields and allow the controller to talk you right down..."

"The PAR needs alignment every hour if it's not been used for an approach."

avweb.com/news/system/flying_the_par_198973-1.html

Wouldn't precise information be critial from traffic control? And if precise information was not given...? Or if it was neglected to be aligned....?

See the Miroslawiec report: aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20080123-0

"PRIMARY CAUSE: Inadvertent loss of spatial and situational awareness by the aircraft crew during final stages of PAR approach, which, within 12 seconds period before crash, resulted in the aircraft's bank increasing unmonitored and accompanying altitude loss, while the flight crew apparently was trying to establish visual contact with runway and approach lights."

In this case, however, the findings were made by Polish investigators...

This time it came from Russian newspapers. They wrote about mobile system.

If such thing is really existing it would be good to keep it there for sometime - even we, bloody Russians, don't like foreign Presidents falling on our heads

Jed, is the Russian press united on what happened? I guess so as Putin has an iron grip. What is the sentiment amongst Russians? Do they suspect foul play or that air traffic control was at fault in any way? It was a Russian who said "we are all at fault". What do you think he meant by that?

You may find any bull sh't you want here - Internet is free. TV is rather accurate (I personally like it - slightly less space for idiots to play).


The situation is complex: everybody knows that your President and ours were not the best friends. Nobody believes that "Putin" (as general term) did something to put the plane down (again - in i-net Olga would find a lot of "friends" and "enemies" of different sorts - but it is not common).

At the beginning our officials tried to prevent this visit just by ignoring application. Then, they could not ignore it but didn't prepared it as necessary. And at the end - they didn't close this airport for landing because it woud cause diplomatic scandal on the previous background. This last airport dispetchers called "common responsibility = we are all fault". They could close it for weather - they usually do it for internal flights - insted of it they leave decision for pilots.

Alex Salmond's relations with Russia are unclear ;) ;)

Aha, I see. Any news on the next black box findings?

And what a scandal it would have been. This is one of the side effects of mistrust :(

Olga, there was no ILS at Smolensk-North. It wasn't there to be removed - do you even know the first thing about what an ILS actually is? It's not just something you place and then remove at your convenience. There was the Russian system in place, but this has nothing to do with the ILS system.

Is it really that hard to believe that the Polish pilots simply took one chance too many? Certainly, the airport wasn't fit for landing at that time, that much is certain.

One point - if the pilots were expecting an ILS (not that there was one) system there, only to discover that there wasn't, why wouldn't they immediately divert? Russia didn't make them attempt the landing, you know. It's not the first time that a plane has had to divert due to a broken ILS system.

It is unlikely that any information will appear before official investigation closed.

Unofficial information and desinformation is the same like circulating in Western media. The only difference - most of us don't think that "you may expect everything from Russians" by definition - but may find this point in our media anyway.

Some information has already come out, Jed. 3 days ago, Andrzej Semeret made some comments.

Thank you for that, Jed. Only your government, though, might like it.

Yes, I know.
And somebody heard last 20 minutes of voice recorder in a "closed cabinet with high rank official" - and conluded that pilots were ready for landing in any case - no way back. It is not information yet even if it is true.

The whole situation looks and smells like a trap for both sides.

I think they will wait until the dead have been laid to rest. Hopefully they will wait until the full report comes out. Anything that will be released now will be purely what happened, not why it happened...and that will mean that the full brunt will be on the pilot instead of the organization as a whole (and the impact of international relations on the jobs of ATC, etc).


What would the benefit be to Russia to make a martyr out of a President who was nearing the end of his term and about to be sent home?

You raise some good questions Seanus.

I read that too where that Russian guy said "we are all at fault". Almost like he knew of some other information but was afraid to say it. He seems like an honest guy.

There is definitely a lot more to this story than what has been publicly reported.

Or...it's exactly as reported. The "we are all at fault" sounds like they wished they would have closed the airport...which would have caused a sh*t storm due to the current state of international relations. Could you imagine the response from Kaczynski? Just imagine that for a second.