Someone please tell me he is just a running joke in Poland and that he has no credibility what so ever.
He hasn't got a chance of getting elected, however, he has a core support of around 20% of the population. Most of them (as can be seen from the recent election figures) are badly educated older people from Poland B. Interestingly, he enjoys heavy support from the American Polonia, one of only two places where he won in the recent election.
From my perspective, he'll be finished after the next election. His mental decline is obvious to everyone, his party appears to be paying lip service to him (but not true loyalty).
As marketis says, there's a need for a good opposition party in Poland. PiS are capable of being this (their Catholic-Socialist values are *very* electable) - but with Kaczynski at the helm, they haven't got a chance. Funnily enough, his Presidential campaign was very well fought - to paraphrase, "Kaczynski with a human face" had a serious chance of winning the next elections. But he's destroyed that, and he seems to be hell-bent on scoring own goals repeatedly.
He appears to be in simple denial about what's happened - he's lost power, he has no twin to manipulate and his party isn't strong enough to win.