Poland's President-Elect Duda leads in public trust - CBOS poll

Rather hope than trust.

Let's talk about the last PiS government, shall we?

We can start with this little gem :


ccbe.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/NTCdocument/11_2007_Nov06_Report1_1194344860.pdf (chapter 4, page 79 - there are many more examples there of how PiS abused the position and interfered directly with legal matters)

So that's one count already for


You'll find further examples in that document, including attempts to smear independent prosecutors as being members of the PZPR. It's exactly the tactic used in the later days of the PRL and DDR to destroy political opponents. There's even a splendid quote by the deputy minister of justice, who manages to explain that the prosecutors should be subject to political interference.

Let's move on.

Then we had the now-infamous example -


globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/2007/10/polands-early-parliamentary-election-of_09.html

Then we can talk about the government itself, which was described as...


And we even had many examples of them using the worst sort of nepotism -


And of course, more references to just how socialist PiS were -


opendemocracy.net/article/poland_after_pis_handle_with_care

Sorry, but history has shown the 2005-2007 PiS government to be one of the worst in history. Political office was used and abused on an unbelievable scale, and everything that you mentioned is exactly what PiS would introduce if they had unrestrained power.

Tell me Polonius, do you see Hungary as a good example for Duda to try and follow?

Duda was not involved in the last PiS government, so your chief assertion is false. You also failed the mentiond the major achievement of PiS -- the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau ( CBA). Two years was too short a period to sweep away all the post-commie dirt and shady connections which fell through the cracks of the lacklustre and half-hearted lustracja campaign.As a result, commie hold-overs joinrd the PO con artists creating even more dirt shady dealings with which the next PiS government will be faced.

There are already signs of panic in Lemmingrad, as the PO-linked scam-mongers wonder if they'll have enough time to destroy the evidence.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrzej_Duda

Oh dear Polo...

Duda most certainly was involved with the 2005-2007 PiS government.

Truth to tell I had never heard of Duda prior to his appointent as PiS presidewnrial candidate, so I never followed his ealrier career. But was he personally involved in any LBGT-style intimidation, character assassination, blackcballing. smear campaigns, silencing free speech, depriving people of their livelihood, etc.? Frankly I don't know, but I think not.

duda-new-president-in-poland

So you accept that Duda was involved with the Ministry of Justice at a time of severe political interference in the legal process?


I've already shown you how the Ministry of Justice behaved during the 2005-2007 period. Duda was an under-secretary within that Ministry.

Don't try and bring anyone else into this.

Apparently he was employed there but that doesn't mean he was personally involved in every case.
As I have said I've never conducted a study of Duda's life and activities. The main thing now is that the Duda-Szydło tandem will help sweep away all the post-commie and post-Platformer crud, grime and slime still contaminating Poland's public scene.

Something of a smoking gun.


Disingenuous in the extreme...


A fair description of the PiS flappers and their allies.

He was an under-secretary, which means that he had ministerial-level involvement with the Ministry of Justice. That's slightly different to merely being "employed" there.


You're still avoiding the core point, which is that Duda was an under-secretary in the Ministry of Justice at the time of some unbelievable interference in the legal system by politicians.

Duda was and always will be a puppet.

And rewarded for his dirty loyalty with a ceremonial post...

Well, with Duda he can hope for Poland to get out of EU and start some economic growth, without being dragged down by Western Europe's dead weight.

He has zero influence on that.


Don't forget a. where the EU subsidies (of which Poland is the biggest net recipient) come from, or b. where their markets are.

Then again, with PO there would be no chance to get out of EU at all. With Duda there is at least slight chance.


The EU subsidies are the very thing that is dragging our ecconomy down. It forces us to waste resources on stupid things, like new roads.

Merged: Translating voters support into parliamentary seats?

Anyone know the formula for translaitng voter support into parliamentary mandates? AFAIK it somehow depends on how many parties clear the 5% threshold and the ovderlal spread of votes.

How would the latest poll result -- PiS, 47.1%, PO 30.3% and Kukiz 10.5% -- look in terms of mandates if those were the only 3 parties that made it thorugh?

Correcting typo: should be overall

The exact formula is quite complicated (it's a modified version of the D'Hondt system, I think...?) and depends on the other parties, but I think something like this would be close. It's based on previous election results, so it might not quite be accurate.

PiS - 235 (47% is roughly what PO and the PSL got last time round)
PO - 170 (PiS got 167 on the basis of 29% in 2011)
Kukiz - 55 (seems too high, Ruch Palikota got only 40 seats on the basis of 10% last time)

I think PiS and PO under this system would probably gain around 10 seats between them from Kukiz, so something like 241 - 174 - 45 might be more realistic. That means PiS + Kukiz would have 285 seats between them. If I'm not mistaken, you need somewhere around 306 or 307 votes to change the constitution.

I seem to recall that there were discussions after the 2011 election about constitutional change, but despite PiS only having just short of 30% of the vote, they had more than 1/3rd of the votes in the Sejm and thus could block any constitutional change. For some reason, the system used seems to provide any party with 30% of the vote with an effective veto over change.

In terms of a parliamentary majority, 45% should be enough to secure a majority of one.

The moment Poland leaves the EU, the much needed subsidies would stop and the country would have to take back millions of citizens that are currently working in other EU countries. In short: Poland would be dead - economically and socially. You want that?

No, you have drawn quite incorrect conclusion.

Which one?

Dunno, but if that actually occurred probably PiS would be better off going it alone than hooking up with Kukiz. On the one hand, I'd still like to give Kukiz a chance and see what he can do. But he strikes me as a maverick and potential trouble-maker -- and PiS are still living down their bitter memories of Lepper and Giertych. What's your take on this?


What if Petru, PSL and SLD each got 5-6% of the vote, PiS got 37, PO 22 and Kukiz 10. How many seats each would that that translate into?

Same as you. PiS would suffer badly with Kukiz - as you say, he's a trouble-maker. Let's say that hypothetically, PiS take something like 41-42% of the vote and around 209 seats. PO take 30% and around 160 seats, and Kukiz takes the remainder. My gut feeling is that PiS would be better with a minority government, as Kukiz would probably demand all sorts of ridiculous concessions and would play all sorts of stupid games in the media against them while in government with them.

The thing with a minority government is that if you can make it work, then you get a lot of credit for it. If you bring down a minority government, you need to have very solid reasons for it, otherwise the voters will be furious that you've caused another election. So PiS actually can be in quite a strong position if they lead a minority government with only two other parties in the Sejm.

Artem (Russian name, right?), you might think spending on roads is stupid, but the vast majority of Polish people are absolutely delighted to have better roads, largely thanks to EU money.

Quick guess :

37% - 190
22% - 130
10% - 45
5-6% - 25-30

I think a lot depends on the situation with the PSL, SLD and NowoczesnaPL. If they all just fall short of obtaining representation in the Sejm, then PiS and PO will win large amounts of seats with even 35% of the vote.

This may seem far-fetched at present, but as you know in love, war and politics most anything is possible.
Imagine that even Kukiz fails to make it under the wire and only PiS nad PO are in the Sejm, a US-style bipartisan assembly would emerge. That woudl really become a poltical slugfest. Unless somehow they achieved some crease-fire, truce or other form of accommodaiton - "for the good of the country." Except htat most politicians operate mainly "for the good for the trough."

Not just 'seems' it is far fetched. I don't think there's the risk of a bipartisan assembly - Poles love factionalism too much for that.

And there's a stronger tradition of the left in Europe, which will sooner or later have it's effect. Poland is unusual in that the two main parties are both conservative. I don't see that lasting long.

The PO used to be centre-right but is now left-leaning. Everyone including PO members agree the party has taken a turn ot the left, although that is variously assessed depending on the PO member's own personal priorities. How else could you explain all the pro-libertine legislation they are forcing through. Agreed, there is no ideological fervour behind it, only the vision of the provervbial "feeding trough" at which they want to stay. Since the leftist party is doing so poorly, the Platfusy are hoping to catch some of their voters. And to less libertine PO members who migth balk they've got a ready excuse: the EU requires it of us.

Where would the alternative come from, in your view?


I'm not sure if I'm representative of most Europeans, but the two parties in the USA seem so close under the skin that there's little real difference between them, once the superficial, soundbite stuff is disregarded. Both are in deep hock to vested interests, i.e. money.

btw, Polonius, thanks for putting the coca-cola song in my head as an earworm this morning. I'll probably have it all day now.

Platforma is very far from left-leaning. If anything the PiSuarzy are the left leaning party economically.

Roger, it's anyone's guess where the next genuinely popular movement will come from. There's clearly a need for it and certainly support. It will basically be the next generation.

As for bipartisan, worth remembering that the two parties in the U.S. Have a long tradition. Neither of the two conservative groupings in Poland have any tradition (or stability) at all. Just changing political 'camps', splits and factions. I don't think it will settle down into a 2 party system any time soon.

" I don't think it will settle down into a 2 party system any time soon."

In the same way that you tought PO would win the last elections.

Your always wrong guesses shows how you live in a wishful world distant from reality.

By the Way, PO is not conservative.

They are not liberal like the perverts pedos from UKs Labour party, but they are far away from being Conservative.

Only to those hyper-materialists who focus mainly on money. But PiS is not left-leaning in a political, socio-cultural and ideational sense. Ideas are also important, and those do include the need to more equitably spread the wealth, make sure foreign banks and other corporations pay their fair share and prevent the emergence of oligarchy. Labels are less important.