Predicitng Poland's parliamentary election, 2011?

Anyone game for a Polish election prediction contest?
My betting is that the vote will break down roughly as follows:
PO - 37
PiS - 34
SLD - 9
PSL -8
Palikot - 6
PJN - 4
PPP - 2

There is already an existing thread on this already, and i have made my prediction, which in the light of recent events seems to be a ted too optimistic. However if a second go is allowed, these are my predictions:

If it is a sunny day.
PO: 38%
PIS:29%
SLD: 10%
PSL: 7%
Ruch Palikota: 6%

If it is a rainy day.
PO: 36%
PIS:31%
SLD: 11%
PSL: 7%
Ruch Palikota: 5%

You may well be right. PiS-supporting devout Cathoilics go to Sunday mass regardless of the wetaher and cast their ballot on the way home. Many of the more slouchy PO types regard Sunday as mainly a day to sleep in, and bad wetaher may keep them housebound and less likely to venture out.

Plenty of PO-voting devout Catholics go to mass regardless. I know plenty of them.


PO - 37%
PiS - 29%
Ruch Palikota - 9%
PSL - 7%
SLD - 7%
PJN - 3%

With 8% going to 'others'.

Prediction : Minority PO government which does deals with individual combinations of parties to get legislation through the Sejm.

I stick to my earlier prediction.

Polish Parliament elections in October 2011

PO wins over PiS though only by a few percent. SLD and PSL get some seats too. Palikot and other don`t.


You have never met a PO type, then. :):):)

I think PO will win by 11%. They are just too steady in most areas.

Hey, it was my idea that on a rainy day Palikot fans won`t vote! :):):):):):):):)

Really, I din't pick up on that(:

strangely enough more and more people might be voting for Palikot. I guess he offers something which is different from the PO vs PiS war of tags and trust me, a lot of people are sooo tired of that that they will vote for the unpredictable Palikot. That's how strange this election is.

Going back on topic:

Szczecin will def be non- PiS from what I hear.

That is what they are saying when they are asked, but I doubt they have the discipline to turn up when it actually counts. I think his electorate is quite soft and his numbers are exaggerated by 2-3%.

I agree. Besides, people can vote Palikot in only one election district. In others, his party`s candidates are put forward. Most of them are accidental tourists. Will they gather as much support as Palikot himself? I doubt it.

I still believe Palikot Support Movement won`t cross the line.

PO - 33%
PiS - 29%
Ruch Palikota - 10%
SLD - 9%
SLD - 8%
PJN - 3%
Of course, as I mentioned on another thread already, the winner was already chosen in Brussels - theendisalwaysnear.blogspot.com/2011/10/polish-political-predictabilit y.html