Poland's political crisis deepens

I agree to it.


Exactly.


Yes, new Yalta happened. Panovie Trump and Putin decided, or to say- financial circles behind them.


There is always the price. As I likes to say for certain things, price is omnipotent and omnipresent. Always. This way or another.

But, good news for Poland is that Russia don`t intend to buy Poland or Polish interests. No, not this time. Believe me, I know. You know that I know.

Poland-Russia problems eventually can occur if somebody from NATO or EU leading powers manage to corrupt some of Polish politicians ``on the market`` and that way achieve to use Poland as condom. Still, its on Poles to prevent that. If God help them and give them knowledge to recognize who wants to double cross them. I pray.

>Poland-Russia problems eventually can occur

Eventually? Why would Russia hold on to the Smolensk plane for all these years, unless it was pure contempt of Poland and Poles? It tells you everything about their attitude. They throw a grenade into the house and then sit back and watch as the Poles argue over whose fault it was, and it is working perfectly because Kaczynski is such a strange man that he's more obsessed with fantasies and revenge that splits and divides Poland, rather than the bigger picture. A divided Poland is a weaker Poland, and Kaczynski is playing a role that perfectly suits Russia's game - dividing Poland and distancing it from its EU allies. Then, when it suits him, if Poland gets so unstable that there is some kind of civil coup like in Ukraine, then Putin might decide to exploit that power vacuum like he did in Ukraine.

Putin, won't give back the downed TU-154 as most of the scrap has been sold off according to investigative journalists. Putins reason for annexing Crimea is operational base of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopo. Do remember the lease was to expire in 2017, the Russians wanted to extend and allegedly the Americans had also shown an interest of taking over the port, once Yanukovych fled Kiev in fear of his life in 2014 the situation developed into civil war, leading to Russia annexing Crimea. Russia does not have the power to take on the USA and Europe combined.

Russia does not have the power to take on the USA period.
NATO IS the U.S.A.
The dilemma for Poland and the EU is if President Trump decides to dissolve NATO because they have not been paying their way Poland will suffer even though they are one of few who have paid the share that they agreed to.

This will FORCE the EU to beef up their military with HUGE tax increases and implementing the DRAFT.
(Ah the draft to teach some discipline, responsibility and accountabilty to the little loud mouth punks.)
Being the EU is made up of Liberal Socialist Countries that will not sit real well.
This will cause not only political unrest but also civil unrest.
Poland will suffer because they will lose the military protection that they once had and deserved.


The EU sure does though jon.
If NATO ever pulls out and you have to start paying your own way you will be crying for the big "War Machine" from across the pond when Putin decides he wants to flex his muscles.

Look how the Euro is still falling as the US dollar is getting stronger.
Add this all together and what a row to hoe for Poland's politicians to deal with along with the rest of the EU.
Face it jon, the Liberal Socialists have created one hell of a mess in the EU.
Soon Poland will be a refugee country for the rest of the EU to escape to.

+1! As good an analysis as it gets!

It's in everyone's best interest that Poland is stable - and stability here gets less by the day. Trump is in many ways an irrelevance here. The big issue is that domestic politics in Warsaw are deteriorating fast.

Only in your eyes.

homegrown psychology

@ Jon- The big issue is that domestic politics in Warsaw are deteriorating fast. The only reason for political uncertainty in Poland, being certain elements of the establishment will not accept they are no longer in power and they are disrupting political norms of the elected government. This whole situation is reminding me so much of what happened in the Ukraine, we can all remember which PO members were active in those times...

Unfortunately, I have a terrible cold and I can't get into the discussion in detail (yes, my comment could be even longer, so be grateful lol), etc., gotta go to bed ;/// but I just have to comment on something because all of this is far more sickening than my freaking cold...


Haha-ha-HAHA! Observer... Allegedly president Komorowski proposed similar changes in law but of course PiS... opposed those changes back then :D
I didn't invent it - on Friday night I suspended for a while my boycott of state TV and decided to check how the events in the Parliament and outside of it were shown and commented on TVP Info but there was this TV show "W tyle wizji" or sth like that and so I listened a bit and a right-wing journalist Rafał Ziemkiewicz had a fit of objectivity, apparently, because he pointed out that when president Komorowski wanted to introduce such changes in law restricting journalists in the Parliament PiS criticised him and opposed those changes :D

I don't know why that law wasn't passed - I guess it was voted down in the Parliament or maybe Komorowski pulled out of it after being criticised or maybe Ziemkiewicz twisted something - does anyone know? Because I don't remember this...


I see, Ironside, that you know everything about what "zaplute karły reakcji" are thinking :D


There wasn't, as far as I know.


Of course.


You're preaching to blind fanatics...


Are you kidding? It was all over the news. Well, maybe not on the state TV, I don't know lol


I wonder if that's the problem with PiS supporters - lacking imagination and knowledge about how such process develops over a time (dissolvement of democratic rights). I've discussed for years with Russians so I realise how such creeping process may go unnoticed by ordinary people... On the other hand in case of Poland it isn't such a slow process - it took Putin some time to get Russia to its current state and PiS is doing some kind of rather hasty Blitzkrieg.

The changes PiS is making (and there will be more and I suspect it's going to be worse and worse) will affect ordinary people only after some time and by then it is possible that they will be brainwashed to such an extent that they won't know things can be different, better. At least that's what I fear. Of course, at some point Poles may wake up, but I'm afraid it will only happen when the standard of living will get low enough, because as one Russian commented on the situation in Russia - "the worst kind of zombie is a zombie with a full stomach".


I don't think he's being hysterical at all.


Then they must be "SOVIET SCUM"!!!! :D There's no other way :))) All of them - demonstrators, journalists, the opposition, judges, prosecutors, scientists, environmentalists, artists, ordinary people and whoever is currently (I am not up to date recently lol) on the target of PiS populists :) We should round them all, pack them on a train and carat them to Kremlin Russia where they belong! Who needs scientists anyway, right... lol Or the opposition... and the rest of that scum :D


Then I am a "Soviet bastard" too, Ironside. And my parents who took part in Solidarity strikes during the commie times with ZOMO at the gates of the factory where they worked. My mum told me that once during a strike my grandma who lived in the countryside was told by a neighbour that he heard on the radio news of ZOMO shooting at workers in a factory in Kielce (probably it was some kind of histerical :) gossip) and my terrified grandma took a bus all the way to Kielce and found the factory where my mum was working. My mum was called out to the gate and there was my grandma - clutching the bars of the gate and crying like a baby because she thought they might have killed her daughter.

Btw, my grandma voted for PiS last year - for my mum and dad so they could have an earlier retirement lol My dad didn't go to the last elections, I guess mainly because he got pis$ed at PO for those changes in the retirement age (he was a somewhat reluctant PO voter).

But now he's even more pis$ed at PiS.

And as for my dad - he was a member of our local electoral committee on behalf of Solidarity during the first elections when Solidarity was allowed into the Parliament. I was a small kid back then - I wanted to watch "Isaura" or some other Latin American sope opera lol but my mum dragged me and my even smaller brother out in the rain (I was so angry lol) to the polling station. She said: "We're going to see daddy, it's important for him". I remember to this day the green curtains behind which people where voting in the local school and now I'm grateful that my mum took us "little citizens" to witness such a historical moment :)

There was also this lady who protested in front of the Parliament last Friday night - she was asked by a journalist how long was she standing here and she answered: "Since 1968" :) She meant that she took part in the demonstrations during the March events of 1968.

So why exactly are you calling us "Soviet scum", Ironside? Do you know who we are? What we think? What we care about? What is important for us? You clearly haven't got the slightest idea.

And what where you doing during March protests in 1968? Where were you during Solidarity strikes?
Where were you?
Who are you to call these people "Soviet scum"? What did you do for Poland? You don't even live here, do you?

What baffles me is the complete lack of understaning by PiS supporters of the intentions of people who go to KOD demonstrations and other people who criticise PiS. I don't understand this. It's seems to be pure fanatism. Another planet. Parallel universe. I didn't imagine that something like that could happen to Poles...

I don't see all people voting for PiS as some kind of "evil incarnate". So what is wrong with you, PiS supporters?


My thoughts exactly. I don't know whether they lack imagination and are that short-sighted or whether Kaczyński plans to be the next Putin... Piłsudski... or whatever.

You know what, during that TV show "W tyle wizji" on TVP Info they had a call from a viewer who expressed a sentiment that maybe it would be better to "pogonić" this whole Parliament - according to the caller we could use someone like Piłsudski to make "order"... :)) Ordnung muss sein... Who needs democracy... It's so messy :) Ziemkiewicz was talking to him, but he didn't crticise such an idea in any way. That was pretty worrying...

Oh, and you know what Ziemkiewicz in the same TV show called KOD protesters? "Kodomici" (kodomites). He said, smiling, that it was a "biblical reference". Not sure what he meant by that, the only association that came to my mind immediately was "sodomici" (sodomites). That's the level of our current state TV, it seems :( Unbelievable...


*FACEPALM*

Did you mean Jarosław Kaczyński, btw? ;D


No, you are an idiot who has no idea, clearly.


What a devastating argument, Ironside! :D You're such a great debater :)


Because Poland is a member of the EU and NATO, for example? For now, at least... ;P


That's my assessment of Trump too - he's a businessman. I don't think he cares about democracy, right or wrong, etc. He will care about American interest and that's it. If he thinks it's in American interest - he will side with Russia (and in result against Poland, as usual). I have little doubt about it, tbh...


You mean like when Bush looked Putin in the eye and "found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy"? :D
I honestly don't understand what's with this naivety of latest American presidents towards Putin.


Not only in his eyes.


...of many Polish experts and journalists... You seem to underestimate Russia, gumishu... Obama already made that mistake.

@jon - the numbers demonstrating are not big, around 5,000 outside the Sejm on Friday and 2,000 outside the Presidential palace on Saturday from a country of 38 million, hardly worth batting an eye. I read Tusk,was suggesting that those in positions of power show moral decency, hopefully his swing was aimed at the MPs which disrupted the budget meeting and the middle class demonstrators outside the sejm,obstructing elected members of government. visegradpost.com/en/2016/12/19/polish-liberal-libertarian-opposition-tackles-democracy/

But they are supported by many people. I don't know anyone who would attend those demonstrations (I didn't attend them either for various reasons - I didn't even know about the first demonstrations of KOD in Kielce, I was a bit shocked that anyone dared to demonstrate against PiS here, tbh :)) but I know many people who support those demonstrations.

KOD claimed to mobilize 250,000 people on the streets of Warsaw,this was taken up by the world press,the actual number of demonstrators being closer to 40,000. I am suprised you didn't know about the demonstrations in advance they are well publicised...

A lot now will depend on Morawiecki - he will need to raise a lot of debt next year to finance PiS plans. Kaczynski has skilfully built a coalition of older voters and young families but unlike Reagan and Thatcher he does not have business or taxpayers on his side. Not having a proper debate about the budget has seriously spooked business - already there have been huge falls in investment the last 3 months.

Where and when? Which demonstrations are you talking about?


I've barely watched TV since quite some time. I get too angry at PiS :) And I've become an aunt recently :))) My niece was supposed to be born on November 11, can you imagine :), that was the "deadline" but I guess she's a "Soviet scum" too, because she decided to come to this world the following day :/ The whole family was hoping she would be born on the Independence Day, that would be pretty cool, but oh well...

As for the first KOD demonstrations - I live in Kielce, I don't know whether there is a demonstration in my city every time when there is a demonstration in Warsaw or other bigger cities and at that time I didn't imagine anyone would organise a demonstration against PiS in Kielce (you do realise that Kielce is one of PiS strongholds, right?), so it didn't even come to my mind to look for info about any demonstrations in my city.

I'll probably go to one of those demonstrations eventually, if they continue to organise them, or if they won't - maybe I will go to demonstrate in Warsaw (less likely though - something really, really bad would probably have to happen), although there doesn't seem to be a point - PiS doesn't seem to care about most of them (Black March was an exception to this rule, I guess) and isn't changing its ways. I would go to them only because it's the right thing to do, not because it will change anything... I can imagine many people wonder - what's the point... You gotta admire people who go to each of those demonstrations...

The big one was in Warsaw on 13/12


You'd be amazed at the broad cross-section of people at the demonstrations. They're always very civilised too. If you come to one, PM me.

Btw I was in Kielce twice recently, once for an art exhibition at WDK (and had a quick tour of the recording studios there) and once to a hotel for a meeting. The more I see of the city, the more I like it.

Why? Well, take one example. Would you believe to Russians if they announce how is Clinton`s clan (or somebody else from EU/NATO) behind assassination of Kaczinsky, once when official Russia confirms it was assassination and deliver material (airplane and all evidences from investigation) proofs to Poland? Would you? No, you wouldn`t.

Not to mention that would over night, with airplane in Poland, ``Polish`` experts announce their expertise, which would confirm that it was Russia who killed Kaczinsky.

So, why would Russia give plane. With plane, Russia at least have evidences. Plus, in any case, Russia would be/is blamed.

So, I presume that Russian waits some leaks of information from USA, NATO or EU and then they would give plane. I believe in this scenario because Russia didn`t have reason to assassinate Kaczinsky. Many others on the west of Europe and in USA, on the contrary, had reasons. Many reasons.

Instinctively no. Lying is what their government specialises in. That and torture.

Then comes the Serbian and say- ``Essentially, as we all know, Russians were not trustworthy sometimes but we Serbians now says that Russians speaks truth``. What you think, to whom would Poles believe. To Serbians or to Anglos?

That in situation when some `leak` of information strengthen our arguments.

Plus, all this is hypothetical. We shall see what would be outcome of whole issue. Neither some serious info-leaks, neither Russians, neither the official Serbia didn`t say a word, for now. But I`m here. I say that- its not that I especially believe to Russia but I rather see clear reasons for assassination of Kaczinsky, among Clinton`s interest circles. Simple. They hold Poland, not Russia. Russia tried and failed and if try something can lose last of her influence among Slavs. No, Russia didn`t do it. I guess, people like Blair, Bill Clinton, Wesley Clarke,... people like them.

Theres no crisis in Poland, jon. The only crisis occurs inside your head. You cherish democracy only if it works on your favour. Typical leftist madman.

Crisis exist. Otherwise Poland wouldn`t be isolated from Hungary and Serbia. Something or somebody f**** Poland.

Evidently that same head is big enough to accommodate the 50,000 Poles who came out on the streets this week and the crowds outside the Sejm right now...

The whole thing started, when opposition decided to literally occupy the chamber of parliament. And since removing them by by force would look bad, Speaker of the Sejm decided to resume session in a different chamber. So they voted on budget and on cutting pensions of communist secret police officers without vast majority of opposition present. Normally this wouldn't fly, but currently ruling party they have more than 50% of MPs, so they have necessary quorum to pass most laws just by themselves. And by doing that, they made oppostion and their "occupy wall street/plenary chamber" absolutely pointless.

But the opposition is desperate/sturdy bunch, so they're not giving up, they're still sitting there lol And they say they will keep occupying that chamber, for as long as it's necessary.

The only problem is, this is Christmas break time, so the next session of parliament is scheduled for January 11, so until that time, the only people they're protest is inconveniencing is cleaning staff

Well Ziobro at least was caught breaking the law, singing the attendance list after the "session" ended, so there might not have been a quorum after all.

PiS at this point is all about sh1tting on the rule of law in favor of rule by party leader - just the like PRL.

The whole thing started when an opposition MP was prevented from speaking.

You seem to forget why they did that - Kuchciński excluded an opposition MP and he did that against the rules (and for no reason, really). The opposition got pis$ed because Kuchciński wasn't treating the opposition MP's fairly for quite some time and this was a drop that filled the cup.


The problem is that this chamber wouldn't fit all those MPs so we don't really know whether there was the necessary quorum or not. Why we don't know? Because the media weren't allowed in. There was a view from one camera on the wall that didn't show the whole chamber.

Plus some MP's signed the voting list... after the voting ended... which may mean they didn't vote at all... and that's illegal...

So we don't know whether we have a legal budget or not - what labour courts will do with this?


Indeed.
And the weirdest thing is that they don't have to do that - they have majority anyway... So what's the point? Are they stupid? Self-destructive or what?

the exclusion was maintained by the Konwent Seniorów afaik which is a collegial body

I'm glad I'm not the only one struggling with the 'why'...

Because JK was utterly formed by te PRL and is furious at the idea of any opposition being allowed to exist. Is there any record of him being able to deal with any opposition whatsoever?

Where did you get that info? The only thing that I've managed to google was that Petru proposed that the Konwent Seniorów should be called to resolve the crisis (the article is from 10 hours ago):

wiadomosci.wp.pl/ryszard-petru-zaapelowal-o-zwolanie-konwentu-seniorow-i-spotkanie-szefow-partii-6070872155890817a


Oh, you're not the only one, trust me...


Not only him... I thought that Poles don't have a problem with understanding what democracy is all about despite all those years of communism, but it looks like I was wrong - quite a lot of them don't seem to understand... or care - I don't know...

And look here:

tvn24.pl/gowin-o-kryzysie-sejmowym-i-zmianach-dot-dziennikarzy,700968,s.html

Gowin says that he doesn't know anyone in the government and among the PiS MP's who would like Kuchciński's restrictions for the media.