Observvver
18 Dec 2016 / #91
>I'm not sure that that are ready to pay the price. ...They're already hardships for majority of Russian at home, not alone caused by Russian imposed and imposed on Russia sanctions.
I agree, not yet, but the trend is strongly going their way. So maybe in a few years...who knows what could happen in that timeframe, with Trump in power and the EU and UK struggling?
Also, hardships at home will eventually help Putin, by hardening public opinion against sactions. It is easy for state media to convince people they have been wronged, and that they need to redress the balance and take back their rights, or punish those responsible. Classic dictator tactic - identify the external enemies and galvanise society against them using nationalism, and before long the people will follow you anywhere to regain their 'lost pride'.
USA and UK troops in Poland are just on rotation, they can easily be withdrawn to suit the mood at home. Don't underestimate just how exhautsed the UK and USA are with constant wars recently, which they have invariably lost. They are sick of seeing bodies coming home from bits of land the public doesn't care about, only to see their enemies take them back a few months later. And both have their domestic terrorism to worry about, and their economies (wars are expensive). Currently the UK doesn't even have an aircraft carrier, it is reducing the military considerably.
>I wonder how long that enthusiasm would last if the north stream as well as that pipe in Poland stop pumping oil and gas from Russia.
There's always China.
>That would be a very risky operation and costly either way - for Russia.
But also very rewarding. Russians feel insulted after 1989 and want to regain their former glory. Putin's ratings are extremely high. He's the best strategist in the world - Georgia, Ukraine, Syria - he's won them all and beaten the west. He even shoots down their passenger planes with impunity, and is constantly sending his military planes into UK airspace just to say "f*ck you". A few months ago he said his fleet past London on the way to defeating the UK's ambitions in Syria. He's very clever, very bold, very ambitious, utterly ruthless. If the time was right and he thinks the risks relatively low (like Ukraine), then Poland (or parts of it) will be taken in days.
I agree, not yet, but the trend is strongly going their way. So maybe in a few years...who knows what could happen in that timeframe, with Trump in power and the EU and UK struggling?
Also, hardships at home will eventually help Putin, by hardening public opinion against sactions. It is easy for state media to convince people they have been wronged, and that they need to redress the balance and take back their rights, or punish those responsible. Classic dictator tactic - identify the external enemies and galvanise society against them using nationalism, and before long the people will follow you anywhere to regain their 'lost pride'.
USA and UK troops in Poland are just on rotation, they can easily be withdrawn to suit the mood at home. Don't underestimate just how exhautsed the UK and USA are with constant wars recently, which they have invariably lost. They are sick of seeing bodies coming home from bits of land the public doesn't care about, only to see their enemies take them back a few months later. And both have their domestic terrorism to worry about, and their economies (wars are expensive). Currently the UK doesn't even have an aircraft carrier, it is reducing the military considerably.
>I wonder how long that enthusiasm would last if the north stream as well as that pipe in Poland stop pumping oil and gas from Russia.
There's always China.
>That would be a very risky operation and costly either way - for Russia.
But also very rewarding. Russians feel insulted after 1989 and want to regain their former glory. Putin's ratings are extremely high. He's the best strategist in the world - Georgia, Ukraine, Syria - he's won them all and beaten the west. He even shoots down their passenger planes with impunity, and is constantly sending his military planes into UK airspace just to say "f*ck you". A few months ago he said his fleet past London on the way to defeating the UK's ambitions in Syria. He's very clever, very bold, very ambitious, utterly ruthless. If the time was right and he thinks the risks relatively low (like Ukraine), then Poland (or parts of it) will be taken in days.