Poland's Party of Law and Justice (PiS) reconstruction

So the supposed reshuffle in PiS has been talked about since October.

It sounds as if we will be finding out some official decision soon, by next week at the latest I am hearing, and certainly before Christmas.

The most surprising change could be at the top, with Beata Szydlo rumoured to be about to give way to Mateusz Morawiecki.

reuters.com/article/us-poland-politics-government/polands-pis-may-sack-pm-szydlo-replace-with-finance-minister-sources-idUSKBN1DZ1C8

This would be a strange move for me, given how well PiS are doing in the polls and how they are consequently, with relatively few hiccups, doing what was expected of them by their voters.

In my view, only two things could be the cause of Beata Szydlo going, if she does.

1/ There is a lot more friction in the government that I thought and J.Kaczynski likes/trusts her a lot less than we [or at least I] realised.

2/ After 2 years in charge, she decided being prime minister wasn't for her. Perhaps the travel schedule is too much? Perhaps she isn't in the best of health? So it might have been her decision, but I think this is a lot less likely of the two.

Any thoughts on this?

How soon they forget the second the election was over and JK came out of the cave they had kept him in for its duration he tried to get rid of her but public reaction was very strongly against that.

She's not a great PM but I think she's better than Morawiecki would be, he's competent but he's also a guy you want behind the scenes and not on stage.

I was hoping that JK would take the helm since he's personally unpopular (and the more he appears in public the less popular he is).

Same here, just like last time, electorally toxic. Unfortunately his health is poor and allegedly worsening fast.

I think PiS know having him as PM wouldn't be good in terms of the next election. It would also make anyone who refused to vote for PiS with Kaczynski in charge, but were happy to vote for them when Szydlo ran, feel tricked and betrayed.

I don't think it's cool to get rid of her, unless she wanted to step down, but if she did, I think she would just say it officially. She gave PiS the win Kaczynski was unable to get for so many years and played a massive part in Duda's election as president, being his campaign manager.

Yes but now she's served her purpose and so she's discarded, what would you expect from PIS. However, ironically, in view of their attitude to the EU, I believe that they want to give her some role in Europe. I think she may stand as an MEP in the next European election in 2019. Apparently she's been taking intensive English lessons - with whom I wonder............... However that's a long time in politics and with a fickle public it's an eternity. I think she's had her fifteen minutes of fame.

I know some young people who felt tricked and betrayed because they voted for Szydło and were not happy to see JK emerge from hiding to take over and do things like appoint Macierewicz. The last thing Poland needed were educated young people who were even more cynical about politics and politicians.


I thought the whole point of all those interpreters was so that politicians could simply use their own languages rather than hobble through pidgin style....

About 3 months ago, in a late night radio broadcast a 'mole' close to the Government said that Szydlo's days were numbered, and everyone knew it. After discussions with the Boss, she was willing to give up the Main job as long as she got a job in Europe. Except that now they know her in Europe, so she might have problems with being accepted as a serious politician. It was just a matter of time and getting the 'public' used to someone else.

On this forum, about 6 months ago, I wrote that she was 'dead man walking'...the Boss had had enough of her, but couldn't just push her out.

No matter who gets the top job, Poland will be ruled by the Boss and everyone knows it.

The real business is conducted not in those formal meetings and sessions of parliament but in the networking that goes on in the corridors. English is obviously the one language that most MEPs have in common so that's the one you need for doing the old diplomatic rounds. However that aspect of the EU is something that PIS has held itself aloof from. I don't think they fully comprehend the value of it but that's how Ireland got the EU on board with their 'no hard border' deal for Brexit. You have to be able to connect with people on a one-to-one basis and make 'friends'. I'm afraid PIS lack that skill.

I agree which is one reason why I don't like the whole EP and overgrown EU idea, there's enough backroom deals done in member states, no need to add to it at the supranational level....


Polish parties are only as strong as their leader and the leader's faults become the party's faults (not the only ones necessarily). What does Kaczyński know? The PRL. He's never lived abroad and has almost no connection to other countries or cultures (does he know any language besides his own muddled Polish?).

And he's stuck in the old Power Politics Brinksmanship model of the last century.

Had he kept PiS's implicit word and stepped down and not played an active role in the party then maybe PiS could have morphed into a more conventional Christian Democrat party (which would not be the worst thing in the world) but as long as he's around it's stuck in the cold war mentality.

Plus of course they seem determined to alienate. There are some very awkward characters in that regime.

The quote from Sami Swoi seems appropriate

Wszystko, co po tamtej stronie płota, to twój wróg!

Everything on the other side of the fence is your enemy! (an earlier version of Cersei's Everyone who isn't us is an enemy)

Another quote from "Sami Swo" which may perhaps apply to PiS's judicial reform:

Sąd sądem, ale sprawiedliwość musi być po naszej stronie!
The court may rule whatever they want, but justice must remain on our side!

As for Szydlo's dismissal, I think that JK is more probable than MM.

Yes, likewise. I cannot imagine Morawiecki wanting anything to do with some of the clowns in the Council of Ministers.


I think there may be some logic to it. She knows how to run a campaign, and as it stands, PiS have zero chance of winning in Warsaw. So, it does make sense for her to stand down and focus on winning in Warsaw - if PO and Nowoczesna tear each other apart there, then she might just be able to sneak a victory. Szydło is an excellent campaign manager as you said, and it's hard to imagine anyone else from PiS having a chance there.

Of course, the flip side is that if she does do that, there's a huge chance that the opposition parties will all stand aside in favour of a common candidate against her.

I don't think the Poles on here like Putin.

Looks like it's old krzyworyj himself, MM. I wonder how the public will take to him in this role... As I've said, he's not stupid or incompetent (unlike many in PiS) but he's really probably best as a behind the scenes guy.

The whole thing is odd, to be honest. The only logical situation I can think of is that Szydło is being primed to have a shot at Warsaw, while Morawiecki is to lure centrist voters by putting a lid on the blatant corruption and stupidity while getting the economy going even more.

But this could so easily backfire. Morawiecki strikes me as completely untrustworthy in politics, just like his father.

And to think, PiS did this in their central office just around the corner from a failed gay club.

.... and szydlo just resigned...

She has resigned after a three-month long drama called "rekostrukcja rządu". The faction of Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro (the so-called 'ziobrysts') may feel to be somewhat weakened.

It seems the the hard-line electorate may be not very amused. Will a technocrat and a millionare like Mateusz Morawiecki look better to them than our dear "polna Beata" who remids them of a traditional "Polish mother"?

He always looks like he's sneering or smelling something really bad..... I don't see the Polish public warming up to him.

You have no idea lol

Chance for szydlo to have a cushy office job, while putting a cocky banker who's an eu insider. The thing is he doesn't care about politics. He's just doing this for money and glory. After all he worked for tusk

Morawiecki was chosen as Her Nibs' successor by the K Man himself so..........politics is a joke really. The party needs an image change now, the Old Mother Hubbard routine from Beata has served its purpose and now Morawiecki is being trotted out as the more modern, dynamic 'business' face of the nation. The K Man is satisfied that he's got the most important groundwork done in the key areas such as military, judicial system and electoral reforms. He's also managed to alienate all the most influential members of the EU and he's got the patriotic fervour pot nicely simmering. So now he can move on to stage II which is attempting to present Poland as an economic powerhouse blah blah. His Nibs is the ideal face of that. All a load of old cobblers.

So what's going to happen then now that Kaczynski thinks he has got what he wants? Are Poles going to take these laws passed today lying down?

theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/08/polish-mps-pass-supreme-court-bill-criticised-as-grave-threat

Past caring myself, to be honest. People always get the leaders they deserve.

Merged:

Poland's Party of Justice reshuffle

Following the change at the top last month [Mateusz Morawiecki for Beata Szydlo] the rest of the reconstruction under the new PM was announced yesterday.

Any thoughts on it?

To me there were not many major surprises. Witold Waszczykowski was rumoured to be going for ages, so it was expected. Antoni Macierewicz I think is the one true surprise, although he did have issues with president Duda and that might have been the reason for his dismissal. It has annoyed many people though as he was popular with many on the right and apparently many in the military too.

I think it was Morawiecki's way of letting Europe know that Poland is done being antagonistic for the time being.

Macierewicz was out because he's incompetent and crazy and a liability in elections and getting in a public p1ssing match with the president, Duda is more popular than JK or AM so guess who had to go...

Gerrymandering, and pontificating to the EU. Simple as that. The whole shower need to be bang to rights, and that includes Duda.

crazy,abit but incompetent? as a MON minister hes was very good. just to remind you ,he saved Poland from caracal trash deal.and he was actually good

"smolensk assassination" stuff was stupid though.


it is problem with constitution.both president and MON minister have same jurisdiction .causing problems.

for me this reconstruction mean one of 2 things:

one -either it was planned as a way to gain centrist electorate,by removing most hard core and radical PIS ministers.and replacing them with more neutral ones.shifting PIS alot towards center..the biggest winner is Gowin,And Morawiecki both are from PO ,

also attempts to get middle class voters by appointing banker rather than ideologist.

or Kaczynski is loosing power and retreating.hes most trusted people are being kick out.first Szydlo and now Macierewicz,waszczykowski and szyszko.
he only got blaszczak and brudzinski in goverment now.

Bridge building exercise with Brussels in my opinion.


Do you think so? Wasn't he the one who put national security at risk due to his restructuring of the military? Plus his support of the Smolensk conspiracy theory. I think he's better off gone to be honest, along with Szyszko who sanctioned the rape of Bialowieża Forest.


San Escobar, need I say more............

They only let Macierewicz go to appease the French since they weren't too happy with the Airbus deal that was cancelled so they made it seem as if it was all Macierewicz. Otherwise PiS coundlt care less. They're just trying to get allies against Germany now which is calling for PL to take in refugees or else have their EU funds cut. Fortunately, Juncker has said that there won't be any threat to the 100 bil PL is to receive up to 2020 regardless of whether they take in migrants or not.