Poland Parliamentary elections 2015

TKM!

Would that be a final solution?


Exactly - and we've moved on from the failed PiS regime that was thrown out of office without ever winning an election.

You really do take your wishes for granted, don't you?

Who's going to move us on from the PO-created mess -- rubbish snafu, oldboy network, cushy posts for Tusk's 2 kids, unkept promises (like that he wouldn't stand for PO boss re-election), unfinished motorways (which were to have opened for Euro 2012), gambling scandal, etc., etc., ad nauseam. One could go on and on, but the survey results suffice to show that more and more Poles are catching on to Tusk & Co. at long last.

A mess? We've never had it so good!

TKM? It was about AWS, wasn't it?

That's what Tusk's oldboy network and the shady busienssmen, scam artists and crooked politicians that support him also say. R U 1 2?

You keep on saying that - but the facts don't bear it out at all.

I don`t think so. Kaczyński stopped advertising the project of 4th Republic long ago. He realised that it was one of the reasons he had lost power in 2007.

Now, the only force that drives him is his desire to take revenge on Tusk and others who humiliated him.

If he comes to power, he will do everything to put Tusk behind bars, no matter if in a legal or illegal way.

Many people instinctively dislike change - PiS voters high among them. The 'Fourth republic' project was a daft idea.

No, the project itself was sensible and rock solid. Its was the way that the Platformers and their brown-nosing media distorted and maligned it that made it look bad.

People can make their own mind up. And they did.

Especially when they eavesdropped and collected information on all "enemy media and journalists". Which of course 95% were in the Kaczyński's view.

The voters weren't that impressed either, because since then PIS has consequently lost all elections.
Btw Polonius what are your afterthoughts on the cooperation between PIS and RP in Elbląg?

Latest news from Elbląg - not only did PiS finance the campaign for a new election there, but it is also coming out that PiS are attempting to go into coalition with the SLD there.

So much for the 4th Republic.

Some afterthoughts, Polonius, on this one?

Assuming that PiS wins the election (not unreasonable since the Polish electorate likes to regularly change the party in power) who the hell could they ever form a coalition with?

Kaczynski has basically accused the leaders of every other party of being criminals (or worse).

And he's shown himself to be a highly unreliable partner anyway, barely does the ink dry on one agreement before he wants to change the terms again. He loves the deal making process but never wants to live with the results. A party would have to be masochistic or crazy to get into (metaphorical) bed with PiS as long as kaczynski's in charge and he won't let anyone else close to the driver's seat.

The only way PiS could govern is by getting an absolute majority which I don't see happening.

This is the thing that I keep repeating on this thread. They have a lack of coalition partners, particularly as all the poll results show any gain for PiS resulting in a loss for Solidarna Polska. The other parties aren't going to go into coalition with PiS after what happened last time, which means that PiS would be backed into a corner. If there needs to be a second election, then PiS (in line with history) would be punished for not managing to form a coalition - so they would want to avoid that at all costs.

The current electoral mathematics make it nearly impossible for PiS to win without a huge compromise on their part.


Indeed. This is why I can see a coup within PiS with Ziobro forcing out Kaczynski and a viable coalition being formed, perhaps with a social agenda (with the SLD, perhaps). Kaczynski has just too much history for anyone else to support him - and the smaller parties aren't going to risk their electoral credibility for the sake of 4 years of power.


It would have to be one of the most stunning victories in the history of democratic politics. The general consensus is that any party seeking an outright majority would need between 45-47% of the vote - which even the PO and SLD landslides failed to get anywhere near.

The only way out for PiS right now is to use Kaczynski's charisma to win the election, then force him out in order to put together a viable coalition or at least a minority Government that can do deals on an issue-by-issue basis. The situation in Elbląg suggests that PiS as a party have no problems with doing deals with whoever can help them - but on a national level, Kaczynski has to be reckoned with.

For what it's worth, I think a PiS-SLD social democratic coalition would be popular with many voters. But Miller is no political novice, and PiS would certainly have to eliminate many of the old guard to get anywhere near an agreement...

Two years is a long time on the political stage and much can occur between now and then. For instance, Kaczyński has idnciated that Prof. Gliński would make a good presidential candidate. It cannot be ruled out that Kaczyński will not head the PiS-led coaltion that emerges after the 2015 poll. Poczekamy, zobaczymy!

So Polonius, some afterthoughts about the fact PIS is cooperating with RP and SLD in Elbląg?

It seems you cannot explain how your precious fourth republic shows itself as it is...a farce....

I read an interesting prognosis. PiS has been putting bigger stress on social issues for some time. All their recent economic propositions (dubbed crazy by experts) are in concord with leftist party`s postulates. PiS and SLD coalition isn`t sich science fiction idea after all.

I am absolutely convinced that a Ziobro-led PiS could abandon the anti-Communist 4th Republic ranting and form a viable coalition with the SLD. It may not last more than one term, but such an agreement would benefit both parties and would show that the SLD has moved on for good.

I could see a situation emerging whereby they win roughly 55% of the vote between them - Kaczynski would be thrown out of the party after he fails to deliver a coalition, Ziobro steps up and offers government to the party in exchange for obedience. The SLD demand (and get) the interior ministry as the price of coalition, Ziobro abandons the rhetoric that PiS became known for (as well as throwing out a few of the nutters) and a centre-left trade unionist Government holds power for 4 years.

Kaczynski would go off and form a fringe RM/TV Trwam party, but he would soon become an irrelevance.

Yes, all these options make it so fascinating that I can`t wait to see the results of those Polish political feuds. :):):)

So you are in favour of por-communist ranting? Don't you think it is high time to eliminate any remaining traces of the post-communist establishment, SLD or otherwise, oldboy network collaborating with shady business and crooked Tuskite politcians?

Not being anti-something doesn't automatically mean you're pro-opposite. World isn't bipolar.

Dear Polo, in order to truly get rid of what you are talking about Poland would have to go through a period similar to French Revolution of 1789

or Bolshevik Revolution of 1917



I don`t think it could be done in a more civilised manner. :):):) Do you really want to see that in Poland of 21 century?

I don`t, for the sake of my children.

Stop cherishing romantic dreams which are beautiful, indeed: Romantic Poland.

but don`t pertain to reality/people`s expectations.

No! Physical violence would not be necessary. Legislation would suffice. Any member of the PZPR who did not hand in his membership card during the 1980-1989 Soldiairty period could be barred from certain sensitive and/or deicison-making posts. This should have been done back in 1992 -- now it will be far more diffciult, since the ex-commies have wormed their way into the system and economy, but it can be done if the political will exists. The PO has proved to be useless in that regard, but a PiS victory could advance the matter.

No reason for that. People are entitled to hold political views and are entitled to change them.


And nobody wants that. After every revolution, there comes a dictator.

You were obviously opposed to de-Nazification in post-war Germany.

A false allusion, since the 3 million Poles in the PZRR were not Nazis. Regarding thepost-war process in Germany, the ringleaders needed to be tried for their part in mass-murder, so did anyone else who was guilty of a specific and proveable crime. The rank and file were largely people caught up in it. Many subsequently became very valuable citizens (von Karajan and Heidegger come to mind) - as are the millions of Poles who were members of the party.

In this case de-communisation. Other countries were able to deal with it, why not Poland? De-communisation would not affect rank and filers or even highly placed indivduals (Balcerowicz was one) who sawthe light when martial law was declared and quit the party. But anyone holding a leadership post in a basic party cell all the way up to the Politburo should have been barred from public office for a set amount of time. Those who should have been convicted of crimes like Jaruzelski and Kiszczak would be leaving prison after having served their 25-year terms.