Poland Parliamentary elections 2015

ZL is not a party, it's a coalition, so they don't need 5% to get in but 8%. Go learn the basics.

Are you suggesting that they won't pick up 0.1% from the undecided voters?


They did, but that was months before the election.

They may pick-up 0.1%, 1% or lose 2%, these are just the polls.

Facts are:
* PiS is going to win these elections.
* there's a serious likelihood they either get +50% of seats (you don't even need 40% of votes for that if a lot of support is wasted on small parties) or form a coalition with Kukiz and/or PSL.

So much for your childish "keep praying".

Win in terms of most seats - most probably.
Win in terms of being able to win a vote of confidence for their chosen Prime Minister - not so clear.


They're not going to get 50% of the seats. ZL, Nowoczesna and the PSL are all polling above the threshold, and Kukiz has realised that shutting up is the best way to obtain at least something. With 4 small parties in the Sejm, they're not going to get a majority.

Forming a coalition with Kukiz would be suicidal for them, and the PSL aren't as stupid as PiS voters seem to think they are. It would not be in their interest in the slightest to enter a coalition with Kaczyński around, given the well-documented behaviour by him towards previous coalition partners. Furthermore, if the electoral mathematics mean that PiS+Kukiz cannot put together a majority, then the PSL are the most likely candidates to provide a new Prime Minister due to their centrist politics. Why would they go near PiS in that case?

Let's not forget that there's still a long 2 weeks to go, and PiS are stumbling now. Szydło is failing to engage the voters, PiS are already talking about Kaczyński being the Premier instead - all in all, they're by no means home.

Even on the day of election he had over 50%, those bullsh1t polls are nothing more than to brainwash people, works well for you. Harold was so brainwashed by those polls that he even bet me £20, at least he took the loss like a man. I could bet you any money that there will be no left wing coalition forming the government after elections but you won't bet me because no matter how brainwashed you are you also have no balls to do it.

Why bet on something so absolutely uncertain? The polls are suggesting one thing and one thing only - there will be 6 parties in the Sejm and that forming a government could be very problematic.


Perhaps you could tell us the problems with the methodology used by the polling organisations? It's not hard, they publish all their data freely - so why not show us what's wrong with them?

By the way, Komorowski wasn't polling over 50% on the day. It was only 39% a few days before.

8 more years of POO? Disgusting?! They've stolen and embezzled their fill - now it's time for honourable men to come to the helm.

Indeed. Time to embrace Nowoczesna.

(you surely didn't mean PiS, who have their own share of problems with stealing from the public?)

:-))))))))))))) PO number 2

My gut feeling is that teh election will go soemthing along these lines:

PiS 43. PO 22, Kukiz 8 and PSL 7. PiS will go it alone and create ad hoc coalitons in individual votes as needed.

A lot depends on the weather that weekend. One of the reasons PiS won the first time was that the elections were on an unseasonably warm weekend and those who could get out of the cities were in no hurry to get back and vote. If it's a relative warm weekend those with more options won't necessarily vote.

PiS have proven themselves to be unreliable partners (Kaczynski loves negotiating backroom deals but doesn't really want to follow through on any of them).

No other party will have any particular motivation to join in temporary coalitions with them without anything in return.

Do you think Tusk would have fared any better in coalition with Lepper and Giertych?!

Well you still had Rokita then, he wasn't pushed out till later. I would hope that PO wouldn't have tried to form a coalition with Lepper and Giertych in the first place. But I'm not a positive supporter of PO (just a passive negative one, they're very slightly better than PiS partly because they're more interested in the future than in trying to recreate a fantasy skansen Poland that has never existed.

The problem is that in general Polish people are terrible at working in partnerships (this goes beyond politics though it's very apparent in the political scene). The natural Polish way of working is in a hierarchy with roles that are clearly defined and the current election system doesn't really provide that.

Current forecast (for Warsaw at least) is a high of plus four and a low of minus three, partly sunny but cold. To me that sounds like ideal weather for a short trip to the polling station but not much more.


He wouldn't have been stupid and greedy enough to have gone into a coalition with either of those parties, let alone both.

PiS may have had a chance before of such a high percentage, but Kaczyński and Macierewicz have ruined that.

The big question right now is whether the PO voters that have gone to Nowoczesna will stay there, or if they'll vote for PO on election day.

Things move along quickly these days, and over the next two weeks the media will be churning out new sensations, slip-ups and gaffes that will dislodge previous ones from public memory.

Kukiz has annoucned he doesn't plan to join in a coaliton with PiS but will vote for a PiS-led governemtn if his vote were needed for one to emerge.

Isn't it wonderful?


I do get the feeling that quite a few will feel that it's more important to keep PIS out than to get Nowoczesna in. The clown show currently being put on by Kaczynski and Macierewicz has seriously damaged Nowoczesna.


Yes, but those sensations, slip-ups and gaffes, to say nothing about scandal and corruption, will be damaging to PIS, not PO.


What obvious wording! If he says he doesn't plan to do that, he's really saying that he will do that (if he wanted to say that he won't join a coalition with PIS, he'd say that, not that he 'doesn't plan to join').


A PIS-led government would be PIS and Cookie's nationalist morons: no other party would be stupid enough to join.

So it's official - vote Kukiz, get PiS.

Vote Petru, get POO!

Are you planning to vote?

Deal!

(I fixed your typo because I'm sure you're far too mature to use second grader insults, you're welcome).

Not a bad idea! Petru can put a hold on the socialist promises that PO have made, while making sure to stick to a free market agenda that stops us pouring vast amounts of money into money-losing businesses such as coal mines.

The POO grouping are now questioning and disagreeing with the findings of the independent prosecutor's office which did not find PiS guilty of the tape scandal. Rather than blaming Tusk and Kopacz for creating a government, seven of whose ministers had to be got rid of for their irresponsible and internationally harmful remarks (like PO-era Poland giving the US a bj), POO are wondering whether Falenty and 2 waiters orgnaised the eavesdropping or whether they had accomplices.

POO always sign the praises of free and indepedndent courts and prosecutors as long as they rule and operate in their favour.

What can I say? I was wrong.

Latest poll...

PiS - 36%
PO - 24%
Kukiz - 6%
ZL - 4%
Nowoczesna - 4%
PSL - 4%

So my feelings are correct. PiS are struggling to find the last few percent needed to get over the line, and this entire election will hinge on whether or not ZL and Kukiz make it. If ZL make it and Kukiz doesn't, then PiS will be in opposition. If Kukiz makes it and ZL doesn't, then PiS form the next government. If both of them make it, then PiS have a very difficult decision to make.

You mean to say POO are not only crooks and scammers but they'd actually stoop so low as to link up with the post-commies, many of whose members had been Soviet stooges wtih blood on their hands? Everyone knew POO were as crooked and greedy as they come, but outright traitors hobnobbing with the martial-law supporters Miller and Czarzasty?!

It's about 20 years too late to get that upset at the post communists (especially since they weren't especially worse at governing thatn their opponents).

I heard that the Civic Platform (PO) come across as very arrogant. Do a lot of people feel like that?

Please stick to the topic

To re-rail things back onto election tracks, PO is now playing humble and modest and suppressing their inborn arrogance because elections are looming. But they are still trying to arrogantly intimidate the electorate with the PiS bugbear. It's like the boy who cried wolf. It worked for a time until people saw through the ruse. The PiS scare doesn't work anymore but PO spin-doctors apparently think it does.


PiS has dislodged PO from the authorities of Warsaw's city-centre council after three of the councillors abandoned the Tusk-Kopacz clique. This may well be the wave of the future, as more and more local authorities see the folly and uselessness of the PO mob.

ww4.rp.pl/Polityka/310109953-Platforma-stracila-Srodmiescie-Warszawska-dzielnice-przejal-PiS.html

Does PO have Poland's best interest in mind? I don't think they do. They need be punished during election. I am not crazy about PiS, but I would give PiS a chance.