Poland Parliamentary elections 2015

Incredible how dumb the voters were back then, good that this is just a bad chapter of Polish history that is not to be repeated.

Given that Poland's governments for the last 25 years (with the exception of PiS during 2005-2007) have all been broadly like PO, I'm really not sure where your confidence comes from.

Anyway, I'm not sure where your optimism comes from. PiS have always done better in opinion polls against PO, but electoral results show that there's a good amount of PO voters that don't seem to show up on opinion polls. Still, it'll be funny as hell to come on here on the Monday morning to remind all you "patriots" (that actually don't live in Poland) how you've woken up to another 4 years of PO ;)

It'll be even more hilarious on post-election Monday (or -- knowing the efficiency of the PKW -- Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday !) if the Bully Brits and other sundry misguided PF lefties wake up to eight successive years of just, patriotic, pro-Polish, pro-family and pro-Catholic PiS rule. And unfrotunately 8 more years of PiS-bashing and political sabotage by the poor-loser PO (poo option) clique. A 47% vote for PiS cannot be ruled out!

So have your fun while it lasts. The day of reckoning is at hand! (LOL)

"Given that Poland's governments for the last 25 years (with the exception of PiS during 2005-2007) have all been broadly like PO"

About that there's no doubt...

I have to admit that, like Smurf, something inside me wants a PiS victory. When last in power the ducks and their appalling coalition partners made such a cluster-duck that it was often as amusing as it was tragic. Nevertheless, you shouldn't count your chickens before they hatch. There's only one poll that counts, and if that poll goes in faour of PO, one Pol is in for some unmerciful ribbing.

Dreaming as always, Polonius?

The opinion polls are showing a clear trend at the moment - PiS are at the high 30's and no more. That's not enough, and we all know what will happen if they attempt a coalition with a weak Kukiz. On the other hand, PO and the other parties would find it very easy to support an anti-PiS Prime Minister (whoever he or she might be) simply to keep PiS out of power yet again.

Having said that, in terms of destroying PiS once again, the best possible result is PiS+Kukiz on around 235 votes. Then we sit back, watch the carnage and wait for Jarek to sack Szydło. Early elections will be called, PiS will be crushed, job done.

To be honest Roger a PO victory in this election would mean there is no hope for Poland. The bottom line is that PiS scare monegering doesn't work anymore and that's why the drop in PO votes is happening, at least in the polls. Some are going to PiS, some to Kukiz, perhaps a few to some other parties.

The amount of crap people have seen out of PO, topped off nicely by Mr Tusk running off to Europe, even though he said he wouldn't, means PO simply cannot win. It would be a tragedy. Is PiS going to be great in their place and everything right? Unlikely, but one thing is for sure, there are a lot of people in that party right now, whether some want to call them right wing extremists or whatever, who really love their country, and their decisions will always be made in the interest of it, whether they are good decisions or not. A lot of people will hopefully vote PiS as a vote against PO, just like they used to vote PO as a vote against PiS.

With all due respect, you don't live in Poland, so you don't see the huge changes in everyday life. You don't use the new roads everywhere, you don't use public services (I applied for my online "trusted profile" and popped into the local tax office to confirm it. Took a grand total of 15 minutes) and you don't see the millions of small things that have made life much better here. PO is hope - PiS is what represents a return to the bad old days.


Don't worry, Kaczyński is back and the opinion polls will soon show the negative effects.


Very few PO supporters are going anywhere near Kukiz.


You mean like the general improvement in living conditions, the vast amount of new infrastructure, the improvement in schools and so on is "crap" to you?

As for Tusk going to the EU - aren't you proud that a Pole made it to the top job in the EU? There must be something really psychotic about PiS supporters that aren't proud of one of their countrymen doing very well. For most ordinary Poles, it was a way to say "look, we can do it too".


It will be a huge success. Remember, PiS need a majority. PO don't, because they're capable of being partners in a coalition.


What? How can bad decisions be in the interest of the country?


Highly unlikely. Remember, the latest opinion poll shows that only 8% of voters have gone to PiS. That's really not much.

Oh, and you still haven't explained why Duda defrauded the country.

Sums it all up really.


Indeed.

The big worry (and remember that there are votes this time who were in short trousers during the short-lived PiSuar regime) is that history will repeat itself, Szydlo will vanish and the madman Jaro will take over - you can bet your bottom dollar that his inner circle are plotting the best way to do this already.

One bit of good news is that it looks like none of the extremist plankton parties are going to scrape a few seats and give them potential coalition parties - last time they were so shameless that they got into bed with Lepper and with an openly fascist party. Whereas the PSL always do better in reality than in the polls and have stronger links with Platforma.

Dude, those would get built even If Lepper (or Giertych, new golden boy of PO) was in charge...


You are totally out of touch with reality. Even many PO supporters (and members) were critical of Tusk jumping off the sinking ship. The garbage you repeat here was initial PO's propaganda but they stopped it quickly as vast majority of people here are not stupid enough to believe in "President of Europe" cartoonish shyt. Dude run away from responsibility and chose a position of the secretary of EU over being in charge of the Polish government. What's more he got it as gift from Merkel... no for promoting Polish national interests, of course...






LOL ! Giertych is running from PO's list now. I guess this time he is a sophisticated European lawyer ;))))) ?

PO stopped being hope a long time ago. That's why Polish people are evacuating in drones. PO = corruption. I've spoken to many Polish people in the UK who moved recently, and the soul reason they left was PO and the way they run things, so I don't know what hope and improvements you're seeing, but a lot of actual Polish people, not expats, obviously aren't looking through the same rose tinted sunglasses you are. If things are so great, why are people still running away? They don't see a future for themselves in Poland. The economy has done well thanks to all the money they send back from the UK and other countries.


That's arguable. Komorowski vs Duda was basically PO vs Pis, and many Komorowski (and therefore PO supporters) shifted to Kukiz.


Not when while asked if he was going as the prime minister of Poland, he said he wouldn't. You can say it's an achievements for Poland, but it's not. It's Tusk leaving a sinking ship and the only reason they elected him in the EU was because he smiles and keeps his mouth shut. He does whatever they want him to.


I'd say there are a couple of parties PiS could form a coalition with.


I don't remember you asking me this question.

'Evacuating in droves' sorry, not drones. Typo. That would be interesting though.

Only idiots vote Po.

And where have you read that non-sens? in "Gazeta Wybiórcza"?


Would you like to prove your confidence with 100 zloty bet or it would be to much of a risk for your teacher's income? :-)

What are you on about? It doesn't matter which government is in power - people will still leave because there's simply no way that any government is going to raise living standards to German levels quickly. Look at Spain, even look at Ireland - people were and are leaving there, and they're much richer countries. Try and look past the crude PiS propaganda, will you?


Haven't you followed the news lately? Even Duda has been caught red handed defrauding Poland! PiS are about as corrupt as it gets...


You really ought to stop talking to people from rural Lubelskie, because they'll always give lame answers like "the government didn't give me 20,000zl to have a baby".


Nice abuse, but I'm talking about actual small improvements that aren't headline grabbing. PO have reformed a lot of small things that PiS wouldn't have touched, yet it made life much easier for Polish citizens. Take for example the massive effort to provide centralised services - this will never win any awards, yet it's made a massive difference in the way that citizens can work with the state. A lot of people have commented recently how interacting with the state is no longer hell and bureaucratic - yet it's just a small example of how things have changed.


They're going because Poland has no hope of raising itself to German levels and they want everything now. It's that simple - PO, PiS, SLD - no-one would be able to increase living standards dramatically and quickly. Are you really so naive as to think that people will suddenly stop leaving because PiS come to power? If anything, the people that matter are likely to leave.


Presidential elections are always a bit weird in Poland, to be fair. Komorowski lost that election, not PO - people turned on him because he was perceived to have been lazy and "I'm gonna win anyway, so why bother" while Duda ran a fantastic campaign, and Kukiz put a lot of ground work in as well.


It was a great honour for a Pole to get elevated to the top job. I don't think you quite understand it, but people in Poland were genuinely proud that a Polish person was capable of such a thing. As for why they elected him - he was elected as a man that could compromise and get others to compromise. In other words, he was talented and seen as someone that took Poland from being this annoying squeaky wheel to being a serious partner at the European level.


It's debatable. A broad anti-PiS coalition with a technocrat Prime Minister is quite feasible, particularly given that PiS have abused and antagonised PO, ZL, PSL, MN and Nowoczesna. There's no-one else, unless you think that Kukiz would be a sensible coalition partner (here's a hint - even PiS think that he's a twat).


How intelligent.


Oh, more intelligence.

Go on then, amuse me, tell me how many governments have been anything other than centre-right in the III RP? ;) Even PiS were elected as centre-right politicians, and they pursued a rather centre-right economic policy during that time.

There is no hard news over in Poland, unless you sign up to PAP and only read their website. You either follow the Polsat/TVN/Gazeta Wyborcza spin of what is happening, or the Gazeta Polska/Republika/Niezalezna.pl spin. To be honest I have not heard anything about Duda defrauding Poland. Are you talking about Piotr Duda? I heard about that but he has defended himself from those accusations.


Oh that's right. Don't talk to those who say something different to what you believe. I speak to random Polish people I have met for the first time. I had no idea about their political views when I spoke to them about the situation in Poland. They didn't all support PiS, but they were all very much against PO. I suppose they must all be stupid and from the same area though right, because how can anyone possibly have anything against PO?


How do you know what PiS would and would not touch?


I know many young people here w are set to go back if PO is no longer in power in October.


No I think this is where you are delusional. What you say simply is not true. Go out in to the street and ask 50 random people if they are proud of what Tusk has done and is doing now. I expect the response you get will not be positive.


In other words, he's prepared to kiss ass and do what he's told. You're saying what I'm saying, just sprucing it up a bit with some glitter.


Funny that is pretty much how PO have been for years. Scare people with PiS and they will vote PO. The rest, doesn't matter, people are too afriad to vote for PiS.


About only idiots voting PO. let's face it, that's exactly what you think of those who vote for PiS, and you've made it clear on numerous occasions.


Are you suggesting Kwasniewski was a right winger?

By the way you seem convinced you know my and many other people's life stories. You seem very reluctant to tell us about yourself though. You still won't even say where you are from. By the way you write on here I would think British, but you've not confirmed that.

You haven't heard about how Duda used public cash to earn private money teaching at a private university? If it wasn't true, Duda would have waived his immunity and let the courts deal with it.

Piotr Duda is a different story - he's used trade union money to have lavish holidays and all the rest of it, but I'm personally of the opinion that it's an internal Solidarność matter. If the members are happy for him to live such a lifestyle, then...it's their money, isn't it?


It's PiS. They're very much headline-focused.


Sure, they're going to leave the UK with a minimum wage that's going to rise to 7.20GBP (41.22PLN) to a country with a minimum wage of 12PLN (2.10GBP). I know you're young, but surely you're not so naive as to believe that they're going to return simply because of a change of government and that money isn't a factor at all?


If I ask educated people that are genuine patriots (i.e., they clean up after their dog, they don't throw rubbish on the streets, they help others) - they will be proud. If I ask the average burak, of course he won't be proud - because he lets his dog **** everywhere, he throws rubbish on the streets and he couldn't give a toss about anyone but himself.


I don't think you understand his job if you think that it's about only promoting Polish interests.


Not really. Komorowski's campaign was pathetic by all accounts, and even PO were pretty furious with him for what he did. What Kopacz is doing now is what PO normally did - but Komorowski was foolish enough to believe that he could just do nothing and people would still vote for him.


I wouldn't call them idiots, I'd call them socialists.


The SLD went pretty much to the centre-right after 1990 - neither their 1993-1997 or 2001-2005 governments were left wing economically. Furthermore, look at the Constitution - it's very much a centre-right construct.


I wouldn't call myself British. I might have a British passport, but I don't have any loyalty to Britain as a political construct. I don't even know the words to God Save The Queen.

The hotel is owned by Solidarity. The management is obviously free to extend their hospitality to their trade union boss. You'll do everything to besmirch the Polish nation's dedicated, patriotic segment whilst turning a blind eye to the Poo Option schemers and bunglers. Komorowski wasted 130 million złots on his failed referednum, Kopacz is making unfillable over-the-rainbow promises and you neither growl nor protest. How come?

Indeed. I don't think it's much of an issue, personally. If the members feel that their money should be used to pay for their boss to enjoy a luxurious holiday far beyond what they can ever hope for, then it's entirely their choice to do so.


Patriotic would be giving up the luxurious holidays and using the money to help the members of the union that need it. But hey, not my union, not my problem. But you know, going on the kind of holiday that involves special towels being made for your dog is certainly not patriotic when winter is coming and people need help.


May I remind you that Duda openly mocked his electorate by saying that surely people didn't expect him to actually keep the promises he made?

If PO wins I will renounce my Polish passport!
I'm sure they loose election.

PO may get in through the backdoor if 3 of the small also-rans clear the threshold. The latest IBRIS poll showed: PiS - 39%, PO - 22, United Left - 8, Petru - 6 and PSL - 5.

If PO enters a coaliton with the three, they will have 22+19 or 41%, more than PiS' 39%. We must therefore all hope and pray that that at least one of the also-rans doesn't get in.

Is there anything in the election laws categorically obliging the president to call on the largest coalition to form a govenrment even though the difference is quite small, or is it at his discretion? If the worst-case scenatio (PO + 3) occurred, hopefully Duda could say that a motley collection of 4 parties cannot ensure a viable cabinet and stable governance in Poland.?

Why wouldn't the small parties want to be part of a government? Although obviously not a government led by the Dear Leader.


I would absolutely love to see him try that. Nothing would be more PIS than a PIS president refusing to allow an anti-PIS coalition to govern and instead to insist that the government must be formed by a party who lack the votes to get any bills through parliament. After a few weeks (hopefully months) of utter chaos new elections would certainly be needed and at those elections the voters would harshly punish the Teraz K*rva My crew who think that their desire for power is more important than the will of the people.

Strange that you don't know how this works.
First: President of RP nominates a prime minister, who in turn proposes a cabinet, which is then sworn in, and becomes obligated to submit the agenda to the Sejm within 14 days.

If the Sejm doesn't grant confidence, the Sejm becomes obligated to nominate an alternative prime minister within 14 days.
If the vote of confidence fails again, the obligation to nominate a PM is passed back to the president.
If the cabinet proposed by the 3rd nominated PM fails to gain confidence, then the president must call for early elections (for the Sejm) and once a new Sejm is elected the process starts again.

In order to gain confidence of the Sejm, a cabinet must have an absolute majority of the vote with at least half all members of the Sejm present.

I wasn't referring to the whole rigamore but only to presidnet's right of nomination. Specifically, if PiS won 39 and PO + 3 won 41, would Duda be able to nominate Szydło for PM? Or does some clausre obligate him to nominate someone from the PO + 3 camp?

President can nominate anyone he wants.

The only time that it's really been an issue before was when Olszewski's government fell and Wałęsa appointed Pawlak to try and form a government. Pawlak couldn't do it, so after losing the vote of confidence, he was obliged to resign.

In this situation, it would actually make sense for Duda to try and appoint Szydło first. There's a somewhat unspoken rule that the biggest party should have the first chance of forming a government - hence why Kaczyński appointed Tusk in 2007. If Szydło failed to win the vote of confidence in the Sejm, then the Sejm gets the chance to nominate someone. At that point, the coalition nominee would probably win the vote of confidence.

Generally speaking, the 1st nomination would go to Szydło, the 2nd could go to Kopacz (or other PO figure), and the 3rd would probably go to someone bland and inoffensive to ensure that they could win the vote of confidence. In that case, I'd predict a PSL Premier. No party would want the blame for causing new elections, so it would be in all their interests to try and form a viable government.

Kukiz has fallen away to nothing, as predicted.

And it's entirely his own fault -- no sense of tactics or strategy, no programme except JOW, unwillignness or inabiltiy to garner support and the alienation of the power base he intially did have. He may still just squeak in, but he'll be an asset to no-one and a stumbling block to all.

Polonius, I've done some more research on the seat allocation, and this is what I've come up with based on the latest opinion poll. It won't be totally correct as it doesn't include a lot of the tiny parties, nor does it include the German Minority, but it will give a rough idea.

I've used this latest opinion poll. wyborcza.pl/51,75478,18865184.html?i=1
and used this electoral calculator - icon.cat/util/elections.

For the amount of voters, the amount of invalid votes and the frequency, I've taken the figures from the 2nd round of the Presidential election.

PiS (37.93%): 176
PO (25.29%): 117
ZL (9.20%): 42
Korwin (8.05%): 37
Nowoczesna (6.90%): 31
PSL (6.90%): 31
Kukiz (5.75%): 26

It's late, so don't take these numbers seriously (maybe there's something wrong with my methodology - I'll post a step-by-step simulation tomorrow) - but this would mean...

PiS+Korwin+Kukiz = 239
PO+ZL+Nowoczesna+PSL = 221

Being objective, from all the opinion polls, it looks like PiS are on track to put together a small majority of 5-10 seats in the Sejm.

Ah, and the TVN24 poll says these seat numbers...


That means PiS+Korwin+Kukiz = 245 and PO+ZL+PSL+Nowoczesna+MN = 205

So the consistent thing here is that Korwin-Mikke would be the kingmaker in any coalition. Not a pleasant thought.

PiS would have to have their head examined if they hooked up with Korwin. Kukiz too would probably be more of a liability than an asset.

The best option would be for none of the little also-rans ot make it. This would then be Poland's first ever nearly bi-partisan Sejm (nearly because hte Krauts get two automatic seatrs).The lefties need 8% as a coalition, so they may well fall short.


Which pollster did this poll? It has one of the highest predictions for the also-rans, fairly high for PO and lower than some for PiS.

That should give them at least 190 seats.

It was MillwardBrown for TVN. It's possible that the difference is that they also contact people on mobiles, which would explain 12% going to candidates more associated with youth than PiS. Certainly, the high Korwin result is suspicious and out of sync with other polls.

I'll use the other recent poll that IBRiS did for Rzeczpospolita tonight and see what differs.


I think it's not that far off - PiS got 157 seats on 29.9% in 2011, so 176 seats for 34% would be roughly about right.

My feeling is that this election will hinge on whether or not ZL, Kukiz and Korwin reach the thresholds.


Well, the German minority doesn't get automatic seats, but they're exempt from having to reach the 5% national threshold.