Next 100 years - Poland as great power?

Crow 154 | 9296

8 Mar 2015 / #31

Merged: Future of Poland in predictions of George Friedman, in his book The Next 100 Years

Just few quotations from the book, for the opening of discussion:

6. After 2030, three Great Powers will emerge to challenge the US: Japan, Turkey and Poland.

Finally there is Poland. Poland hasn't been a great power since the sixteenth century. But it once was-and, I think, will be again. Two factors make this possible. First will be the decline of Germany. Its economy is large and still growing, but it has lost the dynamism it has had for two centuries. In addition, its population is going to fall dramatically in the next fifty years, further undermining its economic power. Second, as the Russians press on the Poles from the east, the Germans won't have an appetite for a third war with Russia.

Japan, Turkey, and Poland will each be facing a United States even more confident than it was after the second fall of the Soviet Union. That will be an explosive situation.

jon357 73 | 23073

8 Mar 2015 / #32

This one keeps coming back, quite often in threads started by yourself. Friedman is an interesting writer who runs a respected website (one that I'm happy to read) but this is not his best book and many of his predictions are somewhat leftfield. The fact that he's Hungarian by birth colours his views on Central/Eastern Europe and its relations with external powers. His prediction of a Polish-led bloc isn't impossible though not on the scale or at the speed he predicts, nor is the fragmentation of the Russian Federation (though perhaps not to the extent he envisages) and his World War 3 (basically Turkey/Japan against everyone else is pushing it a bit.

His technological predictions are interesting but seem to be missing things - not least advances in physics. His prediction that this decade will be marked by Russian meddling does seem to have come true, though he ignores great swathes of the world.

Crow 154 | 9296

22 May 2015 / #33

Merged: Thread to announce phrophecies, predictions, visions, etc similar things in case with Poland

alright. Let me start.

i see Poland as European power no.1 in let`s say 40 years.

Levi 11 | 433

23 May 2015 / #34

Me too Crow.

Actually i see Poland as the last bastion of European christian culture.

It is a well established fact that in 40 years France and probably UK and German will be muslim countries. The internationally aclaimmed author Michel Houllebecq already wrote this scenario.

In a Europe that go backwards on time to medieval ages, Poland (Together with Serbia, Romania and few others) will be the only european countries that still will conserve our modern civilization.

As happened after the muslim takover of Lebanon, when they destroyed a developed country and now blame Israel for a failed Lebanon, Western europe will be destroyed. And since Poland will be a superpower, the muslim countries (France and Germany) will try to rip off from the map Poland.

Hopefully they will not succeed.

Crow 154 | 9296

23 May 2015 / #35

And since Poland will be a superpower, the muslim countries (France and Germany) will try to rip off from the map Poland.

exactly

Hopefully they will not succeed.

no, they won`t.

In a Europe that go backwards on time to medieval ages, Poland (Together with Serbia, Romania and few others) will be the only european countries that still will conserve our modern civilization.

i am not sure about Romania considering development. They stubbed Serbs in the back (in past 20 years) when we didn`t expect. On the other side, they also giving positive signals in last 5 years. We shall see.

Hungary is greatest surprise. Hungarians managed to deflect from German ways and to improve their relations with Serbs (i speak of Serbia and Serbs not only because i am Serbian, but because of fact that Serbians do represent point of balance and reflection of general regional interests). If one knows history, one understand that Hungary achieved its best highs in history and even golden age when was allied to Serbs.

Speaking of regional development, what is sad but not surprising, Croatia plays more pro-German policy then Austria.

In any case, countries (with few exceptions) on the Baltic-Balkan line tries to gravitate to each others due to common interest (as Pilsudski predicted). That is the chance for Poland to found natural partners and allies, when the moment come. At this moment, Poland must play careful (even confusing) politics. i understand that. So, with time, with her position consolidated in the region, with actual mega trends on the west of Europe, as you described, Poland have all chances to emerge as leading European power.