The man has lost 14 elections and has lost at least 6 elections since 2007 (if not more, I lost track) - and you still think he's capable of winning?
A natural born loser :)
even PiS-SLD is not impossible
Even PiS-PO-PSL-RP-SLD is not impossible.
Grzegorz_: however your expatish certainty that they will not make it is amusing
It's a certainty that is shared by the majority of Polish people.
Even if they win, as in, get the largest piece of cake, good luck forming a government. PiS would be the largest party in Sejm and forming the opposition. What a shame :)
Harry: Which is why I said that PiS need 45%, not 50%.
I'd argue that the 45% that you reference would include the votes from the PSL.
You guys forget about one thing. The fact that a party gets 45% of popular vote doesn't mean they'll get 45% of all seats. The might as well get the required majority. Our current system promotes bigger parties. For instance, in 2011 PO received around 39% of popular vote, yet got 45% of seats. On the other hand, Palikot got slightly over 10% of popular vote, and only 8,7% of seats.
They lost ~14% since the last elections, the rest is just your wishful thinking.
Are you quoting polls? They have been proven to be useless so many times in the past, so quoting them is basically like telling others to come and laugh at you. I still remember 2011 polls giving Palikot 1-2% of popular vote :)
~+7% over the last 6 months, the trend is clear and there are +2 years left, hopefully Tusk will not run away with early elections.
In other words, the statistics clearly show that PiS are headed straight for another defeat. Shall we predict Greggy's excuses now?
Or maybe in 2 years the situation will change so much that the left will come to power again? Look at SLD with 15%, quoting the polls you guys like so much. Look at Europa+, which has estimates of around 25% of popular vote, yet again, by polls. Polls show that the society is getting sick of the right movements and slowly leaning towards the left again. It's really a bit too early to predict anything, 2 years before the election.