US military hardware coming to Poland

I was hoping they would enable you to figure it out on your own.


If Poland has a decent army (which is a matter of political decision) for a country of that size:

1. Russians will think twice before they decide to launch any attack. In recent history they have been attacking only those that were very weak.

2. If they attack, every day of fierce fighting (even If we would be gradually losing controlled territory) would get "the world" (not necessarily NATO) closer to "reacting" (not necessarily going to war). For example, If guys in Beijing realize the whole thing is a serious mess inside of their largest trading partner, they will start calculating losses, then they will cry and then they will call Moscow and throw a few *****.

You have to spend a lot of money to build up a military force that could cope with the Russians'. Where would that come from? Spending cuts elsewhere? Loans? Who pays for long term maintenance of a huge stockpile of weapons, for training, infrastructure and everything else? In short: there's no chance whatsoever for Poland to go it alone - even if it would want to. And we haven't even talked about the question whether the country would stand a chance against Russia or not.

Russia is not a country of that size. Germany is closer, but it has proven it's capable of building an army strong enough to threaten the world.

Poland is in geopolitical crash zone. Russian Federation wants more land because that's what it does, and also because dominating Poland would give it more sea access and farmable land, something they sorely need. Germany wants more land in the east to control the transport hub Poland is shaping up to be (the new Chinese Silk Road ends here). In World War 2, Poland was strong enough to fight either of them individually, and it still had experienced soldiers after the 1921 Polish-Russian war. It just wasn't enough.

Imitating countries like Hungary is foolish, because Hungary is not in a crash zone. It can afford to have smallish military. In case of most conflicts it will be out of the way, just like the landlocked Switzerland it can declare neutrality. Finland was able to declare neutrality in WW2.

Moral of the story: decent army for a country of that size is not good enough. Poland needs to do better, either through a bigger army or a better army... or diplomacy much better than before WW2, so it never has to fight more than one country at a time. Attacking Czechosłowakia right before WW2 alienated Poland's allies and fueled German propaganda. Suppose Ukraine goes down - there will be voices to capture Lwów, Wilno, etc. That would be a huge can of worms.

Poles, your only chance to became serious player goes via coordination with Serbians. If those who work against Serbians wants to sell you military hardware, you simple have to understand that they aren`t honest on you. This rule isn`t decided by the mortals. That`s how it is. Now think what politics prevents you from coordination with Serbians and you would, in your own ranks, found those who sold you.

Alliances can be good defense against stronger countries like Russian Federation, but they have to be alliances of common interests, not something sworn to the Bible or another amulet. And they can be short-term alliances, because it's natural that times change.

France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands are NATO members. Poland is a NATO members. Why would Spain care if Russian Federation attacks Poland ? Where is Spain ? Where is Poland ?

Sweden, on the other hand, feels threatened by Russian Federation. It's already cooperating with NATO, despite not being a member. Public support for joining NATO is growing in Sweden. The situation is similar in other countries north from Poland. When Russian Federation expands west, it will want to use sea for transport. Russian Federation will want to secure Baltic.

They don't even have to be alliances with countries Poland is adjacent to. There's a lot of bad blood between China and Russian Federation, or Russian Federation and Japan. There are nations within the Federation that want to break free, like some have at the fall of USSR. Russian Federation has a large army, but also huge land to defend, and other countries and nations would like to settle their disputes. They're waiting for a time when the Federation's army will be occupied by another country, like Poland. To defend itself, Poland should gather information about thouse countries and nations, and establish good relations with them.

We spend a lot each year anyway. It's more about spending it the smart way, than about spending more and more.

Russia is a huge country, in case of conflict they won't use more than 1/3 of their forces. And that's not any invincible horde. Besides, the objective for Poland in such case wouldn't be "destroy the enemy and launch counter-attack on Moscow", it will be more like "hold on for 10-14 days without losing more than 30% of territory".

From memory, NATO plans in the event of direct conflict involved defending like hell, then if they were going to lose, retailiating with nuclear strikes on the front line to try and force a stoppage in combat. If that failed, then the world was finished.

Having said that, I do think it depends on the conflict. I'm not convinced that NATO would use nuclear weapons to defend anywhere east of Germany.

Poland is able to build a decent defense force even with limited means right away. However due to geo-political position of Poland we should shortly develop a nuclear weapon.

They would If half million Russians were crossing Vistula, then they would just nuke eastern Poland. But that obviously won't happen. The whole Russian armed forces are now ~770 thousand people and that includes 5 fleets, strategic & space forces, railway forces, rear forces, training centres and what's not. They don't have huge masses of combat ground units that could capture and hold large territories and it would take them years to re-create them. What for ?

If Russia triggers off some military aggression against Poland, that would be sudden mid scale invasion likely preceded by some false flag operation, which would "help" most of our "allies" do what they would love to do - just don't give a damn because it's not "clear" situation...

you want to imagine situation in which Russian invasion on Poland could happen? i mean, real invasion, that isn`t part of deal with Anglos or/and Germanics but Russia on its own decide to invade? Then listen

As long as Slavic Poland exist and most of Poles in Poland aren`t turned against their Slavic roots (only such example in entire Slavic world is Croatia), Russia won`t feel necessity to attack Poland for strategic reasons but would guaranteed refrain itself to even think of it, in order to avoid to suffer moral penalties among other Slavs, especially among Serbians- for whom Russian population feel to be center of entire Slavic civilization.

But, if come to situation that is Poland assimilated and parts of Poland call, not only for Russian help but for support of entire Slavdom, there is the real possibility that would Russia invade what would end in partition of Poland, just time with consent of remaining Slavic Poles. Those Poles who don`t feel Slavic would anyway lost right to complaint (at least in the eyes of other Slavs).

That`s it.

Just, this can happen anywhere in Slavia, to any Slavic country. To my country, too. To Russia, too. think about it.

That is why is Intermarium something that MUST be. To avoid certain assimilation and then all kind of tragedies could happen.

True.

Poland might take the role that East and West Germany had before the wall came down - being the (hopefully theoretical) battle ground in a nuclear war.


Being slavic has nothing to do with it, Crow. If Poland allows American troops and missiles into the country, it becomes a direct threat to Russia's ability to defend itself from or retaliate against a potential nuclear strike of NATO. The balance of power is shifted, and that is something that neither Putin nor the Russian generals will tolerate. I doubt that there will ever be a Russian attack on Poland, but tensions will rise significantly which might be dangerous in itself because it opens the doors for something like the Cuban missile crisis.

It have. Not because Russia is (or isn`t; its not about it) protector of Slavdom but because of strategic implication of it on Russia itself. If Poles are Slavic they represent natural obstacle to non-Slavs who wants to endanger Russian western border.


True

You underlined here one good militarily reason which could force Russia to invade Poland but also, to invade any other country. Reasonable thinking. In my previous example i explained crucial strategic thing which protects Poland from Russia`s hostility. Yes, that is the reason why Russians don`t hate Poles, even when disagree with them. Russia do have interest that Poles exist and in our time, we see clear signals that Russia understand that is in Russia`s best interest that Poland strengthen. From the angle of Russia, it is much better to have strong Poland (Intermarium) on its western borders then strong EU (and assimilated Poland within it).

But, Poland must go out of NATO which is hostile on Russia. Same as is Intermarium MUST, out of NATO for Poland is also MUST. Ultimate reason for formation of Intermarium is to prevent assimilation of Poles and keep Poland in strategic balance with the rest of the world. When Poland leave NATO and declare its neutrality on global military alliances, it would mean that Poland removing final reason for Russian invasion on Poland.

" Finland was able to declare neutrality in WW2."

Finland fought the Winter War and the Continuation War against the Soviets and then cooperated with Germany till 1944 . Not neutral at all .

It would ultimately require Poland to leave the UE as well. Wouldn't it? To become totally neutral to both NATO and Russia. That's why i'm somewhat happy that we have slightly right-wingy gov now. Could be worse than that. We have to get back to our Polish mindset and prioritise the future of the country highest on the list. Possibly going back to patriotism being "taught" in schools. Yes. In my times(not that long ago. i ain't a dinosaur :) ) one of the subjects we had in school((Przysposobienie Obronne) was teaching us on how to use firearms, gas masks and general survival techniques. Stuff like that strenghtens patriotism. Anyway. Recent parliamentary elections' results show that despite the line between right and left wing being blurred average Pole sees the future of the Motherland as more important than the EU, multiculturalism and other liberal cr*p. Now let's hope that our leaders can and will build on that. Seems the EU by strenghtening its eastern border will actually help Poland to get more independent. Time will tell what's next.

well, China, old civilization, opened itself to Poland accepting it in club of global powers. That fact by itself should strengthen spirit of Poles. Sure, Poland is just shadow of what would be Intermarium around Poland but, as you said, time will tell