Cameron's EU reform good for Poland

Really with all that QE. You really sure about that with Portugal almost back at the point of its bailout, Italy not far behind, France in state of financial emergency and Deutsche Bank having to fend off accusations of insolvency. The dream is a busted flush. Its almost over. Given these facts would you rush to a Euro country to do business. I thought not.

Now might be a good time to buy a high end beemer as with a tariff coming in as you suggest then maybe it will cost nothing to run for a couple of years. It won't happen. They may try.


We will see. With Cameron well on his way out, the PC Brigade finished, all thats needed is a PM with balls. The odds on exit are running 7/4 now that Boris has come out.

All sad but inevitable.

Plenty of money to be made on both sides of the argument, more on a Brexit. But if brexit indeed, it wont go quite like the media puts it.

Boris is fcked if he comes out of the closet. London is based on finance

And he just did. Part of his bid for power after that dork Cameron goes.

" all that's needed is a PM with balls" , sadly this will never be seen in any PF posters lifetime, being a politician is just a paid profession nowadays. Imagine how much extra work Cameron would have day one after brexit, he will start moaning that the effort to sort the logistical mess is above his pay grade.

Believe me he won't. His position is unsustainable.


It might just be a female who keeps them in her handbag :-)


Boris no chance. His wife kicks arse and has been his mouthpiece over the last few weeks. If people had been following her in the Telegraph they would have known pretty much which way Boris was going to swing.

At least 100 Tory MP's siding with the out campaign. Some have it at 165. Some of the inners in the cabinet will be exposed as "outers" that thought more about their political futures, rather than the countries over the next few weeks. Henceforth it will be bad day after bad day for "Call me Dave".

"His position is unsustainable" That's probably why he said he is not standing for reelection.

this ugly jerky drinking Boris is married! Wow! Who is the "lucky" one? I suppose he has a fat wallet, which would explains why...

Now Now Inpolska

Have you seen François Hollande, at least Boris's wife keeps him on a tight reign, as for François,and the damage he has caused to France (A country I am fond of ) well I will let you answer.

Boris is notorious for cheating on his wife, his behaviour is so appalling that its impossible for him to lead the tories.

The idea that his wife controls him is a joke.

Countries and banks hold a lot more Euro in reserve than pounds. As far as respective currency strength goes, the Euro is stronger, just like the DM was always stronger than the pound.

Don't forget that if some countries such as Greece and Italy fall out of the Euro, it can only strengthen considerably.

The ECB has negative interest rates and will decrease then further in March. They currently have a multi trillion quantative easing program underway (essentially printing money and so debasing the euro) to which they are likely to add/expand in March. The euro is a funding currency used to invest in other higher yielding assets. The surplus that the euro enjoys is the only thing keeping it from collapsing given its funding currency status.

Yes the mark was stronger than the pound towards the end, but the Germans needed a weaker currency to dominate Europe (and non EU exports) and so they were eager to set up the eurozone.

The pound has stronger fundamentals which is why its been near multi year highs vs the euro. Rates are expected to rise in the UK before they do in Europe. It has fallen back a bit since xmas due to the brexit uncertainty (the need to hedge against a brexit means crudely selling pounds). Companies have been holding off capital investment decisions and this will clearly put a handbrake on growth in the first half of this year, so inflation and growth forecasts have been set back a little and this has also contributed to the downfall of the pound this year.

Nonsense. The French insisted that the Germans give up their DM as a prerequisite for the reunification of Germany.

Poland isn't gloating at all because she doesn't need to. And such comments only go to show that the status quo can only take cheap shots against Poland because they don't want to face up to reality.

Indeed, just look at the body language in the following two photos from over the past month alone:

In both you can see a supplicant and outwitted British Prime Minister trying to plead his case to two very patient Polish political leaders from different ends of the political spectrum. It's plain to see from these photos that the center of power in Europe has firmly shifted to the 20th meridian east of Greenwich and the British political class know it!

The Germans very infinitely happy to trade the mark for the euro. Its has been immensely profitable for them. Really, having their cake and eating it.

Nice try, but the British political class also knows that the EU needs the British contributions to prop up the EU-13 countries. Not just money, but also providing a home for the huge amount that came from the EU-13 to the UK.

What's most interesting about those two photos is that you can see that Cameron and Tusk get on, but that Szydło is seen very much as a insignificant player and that Cameron has no time for PiS in general.

True.

Now it has, but back then, the Germans very reluctant to get into further economic union with the French. It's well documented that while the British were happy to be shot of the German issue and the Americans wanted a reunited Germany to take the lead in Europe, the French were deeply unhappy about the prospect of a reunified Germany on their doorstep.

The french are inconsequential, a stain on the german shirt sleeve. Economically they are dead weight and these days thats all that matters when ascertaining who calls the shots. World war 3 was financial and the germans got europe at the third time of asking.

These of course the bundesbank is recalculating the costs of the euro. Germany managed to cripple its european competitors while at the same time enjoying a weak exchange rate. Euro bonds backed by the ecb was the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for other participants. Of course they are no nearer to it and the germans will never allow it.

Overall it was a solid plan, the eurozone, but the germans couldnt foresee the unveiling of quantitive easing by the usa nor the bail outs that were forced upon the german taxpayer. So the minuses keep racking up which is why they are playing more hardball and making countries look for "internal" solutions to their debt problems.

In hindsight (and I think everyone can see this now) - the biggest issue was that while some economies were aligned nicely (Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Finland, Austria, France, Ireland) - others simply weren't. The logical thing to do would have been to create a "Euro-Nord" for those economies, while keeping the ERM2 system so that the weaker countries could prove that their economies were in tune with the Euro-Nord countries.

To this day, I still think the biggest failing of the EU is the way that we still have huge problems with things such as using a złoty demoninated debit card in Croatia. These transactions should be at the interbank rate with no commisison applied.

Nice try but that's a tired old argument that is both illusory and ephemeral. Any momentary competitive advantage the UK has over some other EU states which allows it to be a contributor is based solely on having an economic moat via a financial services sector based almost exclusively in London along with an artificially high exchange rate in favor of the pound.

But as we saw yesterday the pound plummeted during Cameron's laughing stock performance during question time. And at the end of the day banks and other large businesses only care about their bottom line. It would take nothing for them to up stakes and expand their operations on the Continent; especially Poland. Other EU states would love to snatch such business away from Britain and doing so would only leave behind the sound of the wailing and gnashing of teeth of Britain's effete politicians. Indeed, once the City is gone what else would a one trick pony like Britain have to offer the EU other than a virtually non-existent manufacturing base and a dying high street services sector which can't be exported?

Poland on the other hand still has a lot of growth potential, a highly skilled and motivated workforce, and a diversified economy to boot. Poland indeed represents the new Europe!


Oh dear, here is another photo from Dave's meeting with Tusk. There is no mistaking that Donald knows his valuable time is being wasted by the insignificant player Cameron:

I really don't think any bank or insurer is going to come to Poland with a 0.44% tax on bank/insurer assets. Most of them are looking for an exit strategy, not an entry strategy.

You're also making the fatal mistake of assuming that the EU could ever agree on how the City should be divided. While destroying the City would be relatively easy post-Brexit, it would need the infrastructure elsewhere that simply doesn't exist at the minute and would almost certainly require EU agreement.

Don't discount the ability of the EU to make something very difficult that should be straightforward (small financial tax on countries harbouring tax havens, Frankfurt offering subsidised office accomodation). Other countries will want a share of the spoils, which leads to the UK having time to offer more favourable deals to the services sector.


The only problem is that the new government is openly hostile to private business. The latest VAT interpretation is beyond ridiculous (and incomparable in Europe) when it comes to private usage of company equipment, and shows that there is no intention of creating a regulatory environment favourable for investment.


Don't worry. We all know that Poland will be in tears post-Brexit when it's revealed that the 2014-2020 budget calculations were based on the not-insignificant British contributions and that there's simply no way Poland can continue to get the roughly 100 billion she was originally allocated.

Furthermore, if a genuine Brexit is achieved, all those Polish workers will suddenly be on the scrapheap. There's no jobs for them in their small towns and villages, so what will they do?

Wrong. Businesses want Britain to stay in the EU but the public doesn't and if as expected Cameron's cabinet collapses within months if not weeks then Poland can become a very tempting choice particularly since it hasn't yet adopted the Euro but will remain a EU member.

As stated most of the British public want out of the EU and if they get their way (which is very likely) then it is easy to see City institutions heading for the Continent. Alternatively, if a general election is called then Corbyn's Labour party may get back in power. Even if he can salvage anything and and keep the UK in the EU it's clear that that committed communist would stop at nothing to tax the living sh*t out of the City so at that point Poland's tax rates will look paltry in comparison. Britain is bound to fall either way which can only be a plus for Poland. It seriously looks like a coin flipping situation where where heads Poland wins and tails Britain loses!


Not so. Markets are global today and many financial institutions already have a presence in other major EU cities like Paris, Frankfurt and of course Warsaw. There is already talent in place and a capacity to absorb a move out of the City and onto the Continent.


Britain will have all the time in the world but like I said it is a one trick pony and will have nothing to offer when it leaves the EU or if Corbyn gets into power.

As far as remaining EU countries Germany is already a powerhouse economy which effectively calls most of the shots. Sure there will be show of acrimony for public consumption when the UK leaves the EU because of all the time and money wasted with the UK forever standing on the sidelines and then finally deciding to take their ball home. But as with the migrant crisis there will be plenty of backroom deals going on to limit damage and take advantage of the situation in order to put national interests first. Indeed, will Germany wait around to ensure Hungary shares in the spoils? Don't make me laugh! I don't see Poland waiting around either to hopefully get crumbs once every other country in the EU has been satiated.


Politicians don't get popular with the public and their business tax base by being stupid. And your use of PF as a platform to agitate daily against the current government makes you anything but a neutral and factual observer.


There will be no tears. I previously posted how Poland already makes contributions to the EU budget which includes billions towards Britain's rebate. Poles are realistic and prefer to be self-sufficient. Any receipts are known to be temporary and no Polish politician has ever planned to exit the EU once subsidies dry up.


Poles know there is no pride in being on a scrapheap. If they have secured permanent residency in the UK and it is economically worthwhile to remain then they will. Otherwise they will follow the work since Poland is staying in the EU. Poles will still be free to go to other EU countries to settle and work. And those Poles working in the City already have an advantage of knowing the business (be it finance, IT, etc) and they will already be able to speak English as well as Polish and very likely other languages as well. Talents which they can use pretty much anywhere in today's globalized economies and which the average Brit doesn't have. Other Poles may see the collapse of Britain as the right time to move back to Poland to start up their own businesses or participate in the growing economy there with the added benefit of raising their children in a true and wholesome Polish environment.

Poland is not a tempting choice for anyone in banking or insurance. At least two medium sized banks were put up for sale as a result of the bank tax, and further consolidation is likely. Anyone involved in finance is going to steer clear of Poland for the simple reason that a 0.44% tax on assets is a tax that doesn't need to be paid elsewhere.

Furthermore, Poland is politically unstable. No-one is going to build serious financial infrastructure in an unstable country.


You don't seem to understand what made London a financial power to begin with. The regulatory light touch doesn't exist in Paris, Warsaw and Frankfurt. Paris has the infamous French bureaucracy, Warsaw isn't stable and Frankfurt is too honest. London on the other hand is willing to turn a blind eye, knowing that America also has turned a blind eye to the numerous tax havens operated under British jurisdiction.

Furthermore, a lot of the best talent doesn't particularly want to work in Frankfurt, Warsaw or Paris. London has everything - finance is the bedrock, but a lot of real business is done there too, particularly more...interesting deals. None of the other three EU finance centres have such a reputation.


You're not very clued up on British politics if you think that Corbyn has any chance of entering government.

As for leaving the EU, it merely means that Britain is in the same place as Zurich.


You haven't got a clue about the VAT changes that I'm talking about. Either way, this government is not and was never popular with the public, as it only won 19% of the votes of the eligible electorate. Business is rapidly getting frustrated with the anti-business moves of the government, and Morawiecki's plan has been discredited already by the actions of other ministries that want to increase their power/control over private business.


See, it's statements like this that prove that you're thousands of kilometres away. You see, if Poles genuinely preferred to be self-sufficient, why has Poland sold 20 billion złoty worth of debt (mostly to Germany) in the last 6 weeks? The deficit this year is likely to be over 60 billion złoty - that's not self-sufficiency.


Poles aren't going to come back to a country that's politically unstable, with a very unfriendly business climate and a situation in which the government openly uses hostile methods against any opposition. Furthermore, anyone coming from the UK will take one look at the hideous bureaucracy required to open a limited company and compare it to the UK, in which companies can be established within 20 minutes online.

As for "true and wholesome Polish environment" - don't make me laugh. The corruption and nepotism in Poland at the minute is anything but true and wholesome. Don't forget that Polish farmers are currently waiting for nearly 2 months for their agricultural subsidies that the previous government always paid by the end of December.

Brexit is foolish and short sighted, but the UK has far more clout and power in the EU than Poland will ever have under this current government.

Tony Blair gave up the UK's rebate a decade ago on the proviso that it went to Poland and the other CEE EU entrants.

You obviously live on another planet if you think Poland contributes 'billions'.

Absolutely not true! There was a public outcry in the country when the Germans had to give up their beloved and very strong Deutsche Mark. I was there and experienced first hand how upset the Germans were and how they got scammed after artificially fixing the exchange rate. Prices for many products and services almost doubled overnight after the introduction of the Euro. So no, no one was happy in Germany (except for the bankers of course).

People dont matter unfortunately, nations are always guided by those lining their pockets. German companies gained greatly from the euro, at the expense of those of other european nations. Germany and only Germany got to borrow at ultra low rates, while having an artificially weak currency. A dream situation from an economic perspective and one which cemented Germanys place at the top of Europe.

To paraphrase Monthy Pyton. What has the EU done for us?
The roads. Aside from that?
The rail. Aside from that?
Free-movement. Aside from that?
Human rights. Aside from that?......

You can claim the EU is German-centric. However outlying countries like Poland and Ireland have been transformed by central investment.

I picked a Polish woman up after a nasty fall in Ireland yesterday. She had her EC card to had all her costs covered. What would have happened if she fell in the USA?

The Court of Human rights ensure localised prejudice, racism and downright judicial stupidity is prevented throughout the bloc.

Can I also maybe mention the EU has created an era of peace never seen in European history. I don't know about you lot, but I don't find it patriotic sending my son off to war.

PS, about UK contributions to the EU pot. If they leave the EU they will have no choice but to join EFTA. The proportional cost of that will be about 2 billion (versus Norway). Co-incidentally a similar figure to the nett UK contribution to the EU. In EFTA they will be obliged to implement EU laws, and have no say in their creation.

It is priceless that on this forum the most vociferous opponents of the EU don't even live here, have no clue about how it really works and benefits its citizens. Massive problems and all.

You EUnuchs are incredible. What's next ? "What has the EU done for us? The Alps, Bavaria, Umbria, everything... without EU there would be an ocean instead of Europe". I won't be surprised If I see that one day. Holy EU. The whole thing is turning into some sort of sectarian nonsense. One day you will set up "church of EU". Dude, anything good that is in "EU", you could have without all that corrupted, bureaucratic monster.

I don't disagree that there are massive problems with it. However the positives far, far outweigh the negatives. I also think it is no more corrupt that the average national government at worst. Bureaucratic, yes - hugely.

It is a multi-national democratic system that is far fairer that that of many national systems, including the USA and any monarchy.

Do you live here?

P.S. name calling is a great way to start an argument.