EU budget revamp set to shift funds to southern states. What can Poland do about this?

Something that has been predicted for quite some time: The next EU buget will most likely allocate far less money to Eastern Europe.


ft.com/content/74d3a5aa-45b5-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb
Since most of the EU structural funds goes to the rural areas, PiS-supporters will feel the consequences more than others.

There is very little Poland can do about this. The Visegrad Group has no blocking minority, and both Northern and Southern Europe are in favour of this. Especially France, Germany, Italy and Greece are pushing for it. Considering that Warsaw has during the last 3 years antagonized most of its' European partners, a backlash like this was expected. Yet another diplomatic defeat for PiS.

There's nothing Poland can do beyond falling into line. They will undoubtedly try the "we were misunderstood, please forgive us" line, but it won't work. France and Germany (and other net contributors) know that it's the weak point of PiS, and I wouldn't be shocked if the CAP 'reform' will include linking the funds to the rule of law alongside the cohesion funds.

Warsaw is about to find out exactly why antagonising partners is a terrible idea.

.Oh, Poland can do a lot to pay Germany and France for a favor. I can think about at least four ways to really hurt their business in Poland form the top of my head. Unfortunately PiS is too weak and too dumb to do it.

Any economic damage done to Germany would disproportionately hurt Poland.

Germany is Poland's largest trading partner. Poland does not even make it into Germany's too 5.

Shouldn't that be diverting money to service economies that have no hope of solvency in the pseudo-currency (actually a loan shark scheme) known as the Euro?

Or.... diverting money to the economies they have done the most damage to with their German-centric monetary policy?


You do realize you sound about a half a degree away from a colonial power threatening the natives, don't you?

It was Ironside who made the threats. I merely stated the fact Poland has little economic leverage over Germany.

He doesn't even live in Poland... he's irrelevant. And it's possible to point out that Poland has little economic leverage without sounding like Colonel Blimp admonishing the natives...

I think you're being unfair Maf. "Poland has little economic leverage over Germany" is an innocuous statement of fact. Tacitus is right in everything he says. PIS has brought all this about by pursuing a policy of being deliberately awkward, difficult and contemptuous of numerous established norms and rules of the EU. In doing so they've managed to undermine relations even with those countries who had no ill-will towards them to begin with. They chose to ally themselves with Hungary, taking a leaf out of Orban's book and didn't seem to notice that Orban himself backed down when he was threatened with cohesion funds being cut back in 2016. If they had noticed it, they might have seen where they were heading.

As it is, they mistook the EU's tolerance for weakness and the EU has simply given them enough rope with which to hang themselves. Now PIS, having lain on the floor like a two year old, screaming and hammering their heels "I won't, I won't and you can't make me!" finally accept that they must comply with the ECJ ruling on logging and modify the judicial reforms but they're still going to lose out financially, or rather Poland is.

That is YOUR opinion.

"Tacitus]Poland does not even make it into Germany's too 5."
Hmm.. some time ago I came across data that contradict your claim. Of course I could mistaken here. IF you're correct it doesn't change a thing. Poland can hurt German interest in a way that wouldn't meant out right an economic war.

IF however Germany would want to retaliate, I need to remind you that about two million jobs in Germany are directly linked to Poland. In other words an imminent effect of so called economic war (amongst others) would be two million unemployed in Germany.


Nah dude. I'm the one who stand (if somehow theoretically) for the Polish national interest. You're irrelevant as a person who merged somehow into post-communist culture and mistook it for the Polish culture.


Hmm define little.... I think you are wrong but what can be expected from a leftie with an agenda.

I simpy googled Germany's largest trading partners.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

Anyway this is not about Germany versus Poland. All the Northerb and Southern EU countries agree on (just goes to show how many toes PiS stepped on to make those two sides agree on something. No doubt Italy, Spain and Greece (who have more influence in the EU than the Visegrad 4) played a big part in this.

this is not a specific Polish problem:

"While precise details of the reforms are still in the making behind the scenes, diplomats and officials expect the outcome to be a redirection of funds from Poland, the Czech Republic and Baltic states towards southern states such as Italy, Spain, Greece and even some regions of France. "

portfolio.hu/en/economy/eu-plans-leaked-hungary-seen-losing-huge-funds.36050.html

allocation of ESI funds is not an arbitrary process where decisions are pulled out of a hat but they are based on economic data and here it is evident that the competitiveness of southern Europe is eroding fast while eastern Europe is gaining. Granted, one of the more extreme examples, but compare Portugal vs. Poland GDP per capita in PPP dollars:

2004: 26,000 - 16,000
2016: 27,000 - 26,000

Greece in 2016 has been even lower - 24,000$ per capita per year. The average Pole's living standard is now on par with Portugal and has surpassed Greece. With Italy and Spain, the gap is a bit higher but also closing fast. For this reasons, it is simple economics dictating that funds will be redirected to the (now) poorer regions of the EU.

Because its based on economic data, cutting will not only affect Poland, but also all other CEE countries and even the Baltics, which are routinely bending over backwards to please the EU overlords. So even if Morawiecki would lick Juncker's feet, it will not change the fact that Poland has become, relatively to the PIGS, too prosperous to be on top of the ESI funds list.

that were silly enough to accept the toxic euro (made for production or finance economies, not for service economies).


Good for Poland!