How will BREXIT affect the immigrants in UK and Poland.

The problem is that some countries like Greece are constantly stressing that they don't want a common European border guard. I think everyone is agreed that the external Schengen border should be well defended, and the current situation with 26 different border guards is a mess. For instance, we have considerable resources tied up in securing the border in Bieszczady, yet it would make much more sense for those forces to be used to patrol the sea border between Greece and Turkey.

A common European currency has been the biggest disaster for Greece since WWII. I understand their hesitation.


Why?


The smugglers are pro-active, reduce the watch in Bieszczady and that means they'll be pouring in there before you know it.

The one thing that seems to really work (AFAICT which might not be too far) is a local population that is intensely.... unwelcoming (like Bulgaria)

99% of all problems are caused by population growth. As long as major religions condemn birth control or tell people to be as fertile as possible, nothing will ever change.

It's true, but at the same time, they haven't got the money to defend the border correctly and in accordance with the Schengen Borders Code. Giving them money is a bad idea (it'll just vanish) - so what else could be done? They've also done a terrible job of protecting the Greek-Macedonia border, and when I crossed there a couple of years ago in both directions, the apathy of the Greek border police was remarkable.


They simply don't cooperate too well. For instance, there are plenty of examples of local cooperation, but it's all on a very small scale. Then there's the problems caused by idiotic resource planning - PiS reactivated a border post in the mountains that was used previously to guard against Slovakia, but now there's zero reason to do so when the real threat lies elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting a common European guard, but there should certainly be much more regional planning. For instance, is there really any sense in maintaining three sets of border guards for the Baltic states when they could have a single border police with far more resources?

To me, I think we're seeing the logical problems posed by a single zone without a single border guard.


I'm surprised that more people didn't get hurt at the hands of the Serbs to be honest, it's not like they aren't all armed to the teeth in the countryside there.

Satan himself:

judas.watch/George_Soros

How predictable. Never mind the fact that it was actually many of the right wing business class that was pushing for more and more immigration, especially in the UK, USA and Germany.

Oh I don't think so,

Tony Blair wasn't from the right and he wanted to " run the rights nose in to diversity " with his mass immigration.

I believe Obama is a democrat and he created " sanctuary city's ".

All the lefts doing but typical of the left to blame the right, it's what it does best.

Exactly. And that culture of self-infliction won't stop once they arrive in developed nations. As we saw on this page alone there is the typical leftist mantra that its envitable for the West to be the relief valve for an overpopulated third world and those who show up from there should face no expectation of integrating.

The people leaving these countries in droves are not the best and brightest either. And even if they were then that is all the more reason to turn them back so they can develop and make their own societies better - be it according to their own ways or modeled after the West.

The West doesn't have to nuke anyone. Mu'ammar al-Kaddafi was able to hold back the tide but he eventually wanted money to do so. The West shouldn't have to pay bribes to any such shady characters (and there are many in this world where these migrants are coming from).

The West can do a lot though apart from just saying no and beefing up border controls which have been a complete joke anyway.

For countries where most are fleeing the West can impose steep sanctions against its leaders and cut off any other foreign aid going to them or at the very least deduct the expenses in millions if not billions for keeping their nationals in the West. Same with countries which simply move the migrants along because they don't want to deal with them either.

The West should also demand that these countries give up land, natural resources, and other mineral rights in exchange for their migrants. They can balk at this idea but these countries need and want to trade. So for example if Nigeria refused to compensate the West for the migrants it sends to Europe then when it exports its oil to some place like Spain, the Netherlands or even Brazil or India then the EU should have the oil tankers impounded and the oil confiscated. This isn't a radical concept. Several years ago a private equity firm based in a Caribbean tax haven bought Argentina's debt then managed to have one of the country's navy vessels impounded in an African port for collateral.

Many countries have exploding populations because their governments don't confront the problem. Some I'm sure encourage it because, like the Turks, they are happy to have their diaspora go abroad knowing they won't be expected to integrate and so can eventually enter politics and use their influence and power to benefit their ancestral homeland.

But many countries are suffering from over population because it is the only pension guarantees that families have. So when a family has ten sons they will live well. When their ten sons go to Europe they will live like royalty with the money sent back home.

So never mind the leftist "pensions time bomb in Poland and the West" canard being played on PF today. This is a much bigger problem world wide especially as populations explodes while people are living longer.

People either don't understand or don't care if you tell them that having too many children is the cause of their poverty and destruction of their environment. Therefore they need to be given meaningful incentives they can understand. And that means money. If the EU is going to spend billions on migrants anyway then it should take the money instead and underwrite the pensions of people in other countries but with conditions. The money can be transferred in the form of opening markets to pension providers or through foreign aid and cut off if it isn't implemented as required. The condition should be that it is means tested and that the FEWER children in a family should result in higher payouts. It should also be phased in where those who are working do have to pay into the system with higher premiums for those with more children and lower premiums with those with less. Overtime this would encourage families to have fewer children.


The current results achieving government (which you despise) has already been addressing the issue with commonsense approaches:

Poland announces big shakeup in pension system


Source: reuters.com/article/poland-pensions-idUSL8N19Q134

Note too that the article acknowledged the real problem is that most heading into retirement today didn't save enough during the heyday of communism. As I mentioned a few posts above this is a Baby Boomer problem and communism was a failure.

The article also stated:


So there. Polish pensioners are not facing poverty and having to buy cat food to eat and keeping the lights and heat turned off in their homes.

Anyway, I don't see why an out of work British carpetbagger faced with being deported from Poland is so worried about Poland's budget for her pensioners. In any event your hidden agenda to bring 6 million migrants to Poland under the ruse of "saving Poland's pension program" isn't the answer. Apart from being a leftist voting block which you admitted was "for ensuring that right wing Polish politics stay forever in opposition" the fact is they in turn will also need millions of new migrants to come in behind them to provide for their own pensions. And on and on the Ponzi scheme goes and you know it.

But since you have lefty leanings the obvious and only correct answer for you is to socialize Poland's pension problem across the EU much like is done with the CAP. So why don't you write to your idol Tusk and have him come up with a solution. And don't worry about being misunderstood; he does speak English so you can write to him in your native language and avoid embarrassing yourself with your pidgin Polish.

You really are living far, far away if you think that stealing the OFE money is a commonsense approach. In fact, had you done your research properly, you'd realise that the government is intending on taking the money (which is mostly invested on the WSE and in government bonds) and replacing it with an IOU note. It will defer the problems, but all it really will do is finance the budget in the short term while the demographic problem continues to get worse and worse.

Of course, you wouldn't see anything wrong with the government seizing 25% of our money, because you don't live here and don't have to deal with the consequences of their actions.


What are you talking about? Polish pensioners are already suffering with low pensions, as anyone living here knows. The problem is that there's nothing left for the next generation - they're simply stealing hard currency today to pay for pensions, nothing more. When the 25% runs out (it's only around 35 billion PLN, or less than half of the yearly deficit) - what will be next? The answer is obvious - more money will be taken. If you actually read the article, you'll know that there's only about 140 billion PLN in the OFE funds, much of which is tied up in the WSE. 140 billion PLN will pay for less than 2 years of current liabilities - it's nothing.

Your own article also mentions the pensions time bomb. Are you still in denial?

I understand that you might not understand the situation in Poland as you live in Canada and never will contribute a thing to Polish pension funds, but those of us living here understand perfectly that this is the last generation that will have a pension in Poland. Next generation has zero chance, and even ex-top ZUS employees have made it crystal clear that the system is headed for a catastrophic bankruptcy within 10-15 years. I know that you rely on English articles because of your inability to understand Polish, but you can try Google Translate to get the gist of this article - natemat.pl/82051,zus-zbankrutuje-przed-2020-rokiem-autorzy-raportu-podwazaja-rzadowe-prognozy

By the way, until you pay pension contributions in Poland, you really have nothing to say about the topic. I imagine you'll be the last to contribute to starving old people in Poland when the system collapses completely.

It seems the world's​ central banks have more faith in sterling and the British than they do the Euro and Brussels.

retirementgenius.co.uk/central-banks-ditch-euro-for-sterling/

People few noteworthy numbers:
- a size of Europe about four million square miles.
- a size of Africa about 12 four million square miles.
- a size of Asia about 17 million square miles.
What has a number of people to do with all that immigration? Answer not much.

The population density of Europe is about 105 people per square km.
Africa about 42 people per square km.
Asia about 143 people per square km.

Now there are Gulf states closer to all those places that so called refugees come from. Those states are much more wealthy than Europe or even any given nation in Europe. Yet, somehow regardless of your 'logic' they don't go there.

Refugees go to Europe ( Germany )for the following reasons:
- they have info that they can get a house, a car and money for free.
- Border control or the way it works due to some ideology allows to cross and stay all who came knocking. I mean those who have no passport, claim to be a refugee or has a dark skin color. If you're white have your papers in order you are being scanned, checked and photographed ten times before you're allowed to travel from a point A to B. WTF? Shortly they'll demand your blood and urine samples as well.

- they get a generous welfare allowances for free - in the age of the internet they communicate that fact to their friends and family.

Solution is simple:
- all and sundry illegals crossing borders should be apprehend, stopped and returned to the first country they came from. In those few genuine cases some refugee camps should be build on the shores of African or some isles there.

All those boats, used to smuggle illegals - should be confiscated and sunken. Oohrah!

There is no too many people. There is too many fools. Inept, corrupt systems or lack of any decent government whatsoever. Exploration of the solar system for example.

The secret is to use all ingenuity and resources of the human race with care and for good causes.
That panicking about number of people stared in England in the 19th or 18th century while there was about four millions inhabitants if the isles. Some people are freaking out today (like 300 or 200 years later). Also that strange notion had been picked up by some weird individuals across the globe. Well, I'm not fair. By some people with too much time on their hands who worry too much about all sorts of useless of things.

Now what they are up to? "The Telegraph" on Friday 31 March 2017 (should be the first of April) telegraphed -
"New report shows immigration from outside Europe over the Labour government years cost the public purse billions of pounds, while recent migration from inside Europe generated a Ł4 billion surplus."

Ah come on. Your average John or Harry doesn't care about such a detail. Most of the EU people should move from Britain in my opinion. Instead they can have a controlled immgrnacion and closer economic cooperation with the Commonwealth countries not Canada, Austria or New Zealand as people like tic tack seems to think but with Pakistan, India and Nigeria - nothing wrong with it. There where all the riches like ores, including oil lie, and there is surplus of people with a close cultural ties to Britain. Booyah!

LOL! So Detective Delphia you're obviously hot this case. Where is the "stolen" OFE money now? Hidden in offshore bank accounts? Laundered through expensive property acquisitions in Eaton Square and the 7th arrondissement? Blown by PiS operatives on drugs, prostitutes and gambling?

Just quit lying. The money wasn't stolen at all. The government determined the OFE system itself wasn't beneficial or tenable.

Like I already stated, as an out-of-work British carpetbagger you don't have any reason to be concerned with Polish pensions. But since you are a notorious anti-PiS agitator on here this article shows what the real bee in your bonnet is regarding the liquidation of the OFE pillar:

Dramatic overhaul of Polish pensions spells end for second pillar


Source: ipe.com/countries/cee/dramatic-overhaul-of-polish-pensions-spells-end-for-second-pillar/10014150.fullarticle

If you want to talk about a Polish Government actually stealing pensioner's money then why don't you mention what Tusk's regime did back in 2013?

Poland's Piggish Pols--They're Not Alone


The article continued,


Source: forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/09/17/polands-piggish-pols-theyre-not-alone/#3c88529a66b7

You've been posting since 2008. So where are you posts from 2013/2014 calling for 6 million migrants to come to Poland to shore up its failing pension system following Tusk's theft from its coffers? What's that you say? You didn't have anything to say back then? Was it due to a very lengthy suspension or are you just that big of hypocrite when it comes to the welfare of Polish pensioners? Let the forum know. Your response should be very interesting I'm sure.


You're such a politically driven drama queen. If the system is headed for certain collapse then why on Earth are you hanging around and on top of that inviting 6 million more migrants to come to Poland to face according to a certain bleak future?

Here's a little more insight for you: Repeating a lie actually doesn't make it the truth. Actually, it is impossible to maintain a lie over a lengthy period of time. And you demonstrated in your last few posts alone that you can't even do it over a couple of hours.

Get a job already ya bum. I hear Manila calling you and your fellow cohorts.

OFE is dangerous. western companies holding polish citizens life savings. after lehman bro collapse..what if they get bankrupt?and where is this capital going? some must be invested in Poland but alot being transferred out of it.

am all about free market,but in this case ,i would rather have state to deal with pensions.

It was easier generations ago when governments could promise citizens financial security in their old age knowing statistically that many would die only a few years after they were eligible to begin collecting it. But many are living longer and with it more health problems.

The state has only a few options if it is going to provide pensions. It can make citizens contribute through taxes but this assumes at least a stable population and growing economy. It can borrow the money from banks or other countries (effectively an IOU which has to be paid back (through taxation) and with interest). It can print money like there is no tomorrow and spark inflation and wreck its economy in the process. Or it can rely on for-profit companies to manage and grow their pension portfolios and risk the consequences when the market place tanks. Regardless of how pensions get funded it always depends on the ongoing health of the economy that determines if the state can provide pensions and keep them indexed to inflation.

It's a very complicated problem and there is no one guaranteed way of dealing with it effectively. However, bringing in millions of migrants to Poland like some British migrants on here are always advocating for isn't a solution either.

Yes, especially when the immigrants come from cultures with very different values than those in Europe. Why would Ahmed or Nguru want their hard earned salaries going to support of bunch of old white people with customs they regard as filthy? (That is when you can get them into on-the-books employment in the first place, which is very far from 'most of the time'?)

Ukrainians in Poland come from a distinct (yet generally similar) culture and language and if they stay have children then those children will be essentially indistinguishable from the native population (unless a bunch of clueless do-gooders get their hands on them).

The idea of immigrants as retirement security is essentially magic thinking that breaks down when facts on the ground are looked at, but by then those proposing the policy have already pocketed a lot of money and decide that the solution to the last wave of failed immigrants is.... more immigration!

The idea of immigrants as some kind of economic magic or problem solvers is part of the neoliberal consensus that is being rejected (or strongly challenged) in almost all the countries where it took hold.

Time for newer, better ideas.

Here's the problem I think - newer, better ideas are untested in reality, whereas in Poland's case, importing several million Ukrainians to pay ZUS contributions is an easy fix that doesn't require politicians to take any risks. Of course, they will hurt right wing politics in Poland in the long run, but paying pensions today is far more important than the future of the political ideology.

YEs I don't think it's Poland's place to be experimenting, but countries that could be doing so .... aren't. They're stuck back in the 'bring in new cannon fodder' mode.


Yes, for Poland Ukrainians are (on the whole) better than Middle Easterners or Africans. No doubt. Some controlled Vietnamese immigration might be a good thing to (since they have a good track record).


How? I guess it depends on how you define "right wing". Something tells me that post soviet peoples tend to not be the most socially liberal in the world...

Generally speaking, I think Poland should be aiming to use Ukrainians/other FSU for jobs in all sectors, while ME/Africans should only get in through being skilled migrants. I've said it before on here, but one of the strangest things about both PO and PiS was their willingness to issue work permits for kebab and residence permits for nonsense 'degrees' at private universities.

I remember being quite surprised a while ago that someone from India without qualifications or verifiable experience could get a work permit as a teacher. I don't see any reason to encourage such.

Not surprising,

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-04/brexit-s-biggest-loser-may-actually-be-poland

And according to this it could be Ireland:
independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/colm-mccarthy-ireland-could-be-biggest-brexit-loser-after-the-uk-35585777.html

And according to this it's Ireland, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg:
cnbc.com/2017/03/01/ireland-cyprus-malta-and-luxembourg-to-be-hardest-hit-by-brexit-kpmg-report.html

Let's see how things pan out shall we, instead of pointless speculating. There's nothing to be said really until 29 April at earliest when the draft negotiation guidelines will be voted on by the other EU members.

A bit of truth in everything I say.

Reading this thread with interest and I note with alarming interest that I tend to agree with both sides of the argument at times-goes to show what a screwed up world we have to live in.

Does anyone know if Brexit is reversible ? I just cannot imagine May leading us over the edge of a cliff and everyone believe we're going to fly.

Of course it's reversible. The powers that be all make up the rules as they go along. The 'rules' may presently say there's no way back but if the EU wants to let the UK back in at some point, they'll simply change the rules to make that possible. As for people saying 'oh but all the other states would have to agree' in theory yes, in practice no. If the Brussels big wigs want Britain back, then back they will be allowed to come.

You mean if the Brussels bigwigs fear losing British money would they let the UK back in ? Derrrrrr !!

I reckon what will happen is that at the end of negotiations, Gina Miller, The Labour party, the LibDems​ and the House of Lords will oppose the final deal or no deal. May will call a general election, if she wins the it's a hard Brexit which is what I want, if she loses to say Labour or the LibDems then it will be shelved and no Brexit what so ever.

Yes-I was actually thinking the other way round. Would the UK have the option to change their mind further down the path

Absolutely, but you could be 100% certain that the EU would demand that the UK agrees to the Euro and Schengen as part of the accession process, as well as financial oversight over the huge amounts of dirty money that flow through the City.

That would be a huge No then !

Who knows. If you know your history, you'll know that the UK was almost pleading to join the EU in 1973 because of how bad the financial situation was.

Laughable,

Even Poland hasn't taken the crap Euro on.

Those were the days...

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/13/britain-europe-david-cameron-eu